{quote} {image} It should pull back before it reaches target point (circled one)... if it doesn't pull back until it reaches this point, this plan is negated.
{quote} GOLD Long Trade Result BE+ This Trade demonstrates why I need to step back from Forex Factory and concentrate on Trading and not feeding my EGO by being Right on Forex Factory. Why was I taking a Trade this late on New Years Eve? I just wanted to be Proved Right But not surprisingly was Proven to be Very Wrong {image}
{quote} Yes, that right. No wonder all the serious gurus disappear one by one from FF after some time. FF is actually a play ground for all the jokers and muppets like me. They cannot be serious.
{quote} Hi Justin, You are definately not a Muppet. Happy New Year
{quote} GOLD Long Trade Result BE+ I know, long term, I am better of Targeting +2R {image}
{quote} Your entry was near perfect almost hitting the TP. No doubt your account cannot stop growing in the long run.
{quote} Hi Justin, I have to be Disciplined and keep Repeating the same Actions over and over again. Consistency is so Important for Long Term Results. Just Observing Price now {image}
{quote} Hi Justin, I hope the Chart makes some sense to you Once Price Starts to move there is reasoning to its Rhythm {image} {image}
{quote} Yes, you're correct Steve. We had several decent entry opportunities following this rhythm at least in hindsight. To many people including me, it would be difficult to jump in when the trend is already full fetched as it looks too late to them. I need some more experience and practice to catch it... Thank you for sharing your ideas anyway.
This means:
The result:
Many breakouts are stop-hunts, not genuine expansion moves.
2. Transaction costs kill scalpers
Breakout scalping usually means:
Even with good execution:
These costs quietly turn a slightly positive expectancy into a negative one.
This is especially true in:
3. Volatility regime dependency (big problem)
Breakout scalping only works in specific regimes:
But most days are:
If you trade breakouts every day, expectancy collapses.
When breakout scalping can work
Breakout scalping is not random when it has context.
It works best when ALL of these align:
Compression → expansion (range contraction first)
Higher timeframe bias (not counter-trend)
Acceptance above/below value (VWAP, prior session high/low)
Volume confirmation after the break, not before
Time-of-day edge (open, NY overlap, data releases)
Without these, it’s just chasing green candles.
The uncomfortable truth
Pure breakout entries have negative expectancy.
What actually works long-term:
Many profitable “breakout traders” make money from:
Why some traders still succeed with it
They usually:
Practical takeaway (important)
Breakout scalping is:
Losing if traded mechanically Losing if traded every day Losing without regime filtering Viable if used as a trigger, not a strategyIf you want, next we can:
Just tell me which angle you want to go deeper into.
