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  • #2,821
  • Nov 24, 2020 8:34pm Nov 24, 2020 8:34pm
Amazing WCU..... Wait until people are no longer interested in headline news. It may take several months before you finally enter safely. It works over and over again....
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(blue line is gold)

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WCU is safer than Davit's pivot system. He blew his account when Corona virus hit the world but WCU followers wouldn't.
If you are typical 95% day trading loser, try it seriously before you quit trading.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,822
  • Nov 24, 2020 8:40pm Nov 24, 2020 8:40pm
Quoting Hutch
It's quite likely that JP Morgan selling gold is the reason for the big drop in the last few days. {image}
Yes, typical pump and dump.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,823
  • Nov 25, 2020 7:26am Nov 25, 2020 7:26am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Yes, typical pump and dump.....
Looks the same for bitcoin. It's now only $746 from its all time high of $19,972.
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  • #2,824
  • Dec 7, 2020 6:22am Dec 7, 2020 6:22am
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,825
  • Dec 7, 2020 3:56pm Dec 7, 2020 3:56pm
Quoting heispark
{image}
Better buy lumber
  • #2,826
  • Dec 7, 2020 4:40pm Dec 7, 2020 4:40pm
Quoting heispark
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...to-record-low/ U.S. natgas giving up on winter as widow maker spread cut to record low Even though it’s only November, U.S. gas traders said warm weather this month has already caused some in the market to give up on this winter and focus on next year. Reuters (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Chizu Nomiyama) {image}{image} https://youtu.be/qKKnoPWixUw?t=265
They were right Natural Gas is taking a beating after going up to $3.41 on 31 October, a drop of 29%.
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  • #2,827
  • Dec 7, 2020 8:51pm Dec 7, 2020 8:51pm
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...eats-covid-19/

U.S. Natural Gas Beats Covid-19

It’s surely going down as the most challenging year ever for the U.S. oil and gas industry. But a solid rebound for shale has been in the works for a few months. WTI crude oil prices, for instance, are now up over $45 per barrel, which is at or even above the breakeven price for many producers and the highest price since early-March.
Yet to be clear, oil’s sister fuel natural gas remains the real fuel of the future. In short, any serious climate policy has more natural gas as a centerpiece strategy.
While U.S. oil demand has been lower this year (at complete stagnation since June, with gasoline use 90% normal and jet fuel 45% normal), gas consumption has been at or even above year-ago levels.
Seemingly unbeknownst to most, U.S. natural gas demand has never really went away through Covid-19 (Figure below), showing its resiliency. For measure, electricity and industry account for ~65% of U.S. gas needs.
Rising 70% from 2009-2019, U.S. natural gas production this year fell 8-9% at the worst of the pandemic. Output is on the rise, however, and is now consistently hitting 90-91 Bcf/d, compared to 93-94 Bcf/d at the end of 2019. Higher prices for both oil and gas in recent months have greatly helped.
And make no mistake, mostly due to optimism around production (because of our massive low-cost resource base), the only gas prices on the futures curve currently above $3.00 per MMBtu is next winter 2021-2022 – for the next 13 years!
The fact is that no energy source can compete with such low commodity prices for gas, especially since we’ve already built a gigantic complex to continually utilize more gas. At some 545,000 MW, 45% of U.S. power generation capacity is natural gas-based, which is more than coal, nuclear, wind, and solar COMBINED.
These are state-of-the-art gas power stations that are built to operate another 40 or 50 years, compared to typically 20 years for wind farms and 30 years for solar. In turn, the truth is that electric cars are more aptly named “natural gas cars.”
Looking forward, a new administration and congress will come face-to-face with this U.S. demand reality of more gas and what I term “buoyantly very high” oil demand (i.e., not necessarily rising but not falling in the absolute sense much either).
I’d be careful: mandates to force more expensive, less convenient electric cars on the American public could easily face major political backlash, especially as the economic justice movement continues to take flight: “Latino Leaders Are Fighting California’s ‘Unbelievably Regressive’ Climate Policies.”
So, the question: what U.S. natural gas market has been impacted by our historic health crisis this year? The answer is our exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which have plummeted because of low demand and prices globally.
In 2020, a drastic drop in U.S. LNG exports from January through summer was the primary reason why U.S. gas prices for the first half of 2020 were their lowest since 1989, at $1.80 per MMBtu.
Even globally, the slowdown in rapid LNG growth demonstrates just how difficult this year has been for those in the oil and gas business. For example, only one LNG export project passed a final investment decision (FID) in 2020, Sempra’s Energía Costa Azul liquefaction terminal along the western coast of Mexico in Baja California. At a 3% drop, 2020 is assumed to see the largest recorded decline in global natural gas usage.
Now, U.S. LNG feed gas demand has surged to up over 11 Bcf/d in recent weeks. This is incredibly good news for those of us demanding modern, clean, reliable, and affordable energy for poor people – a moral necessity that has tragically become a complete afterthought.
To illustrate, even though many of their politicians want you to think the opposite, the hard truth is that California, New York, and Massachusetts all enjoy gas-dominated energy systems. This is very telling because they have apparently been doing all that they can to install something different.
Reality check: this year, gas has generated 44% of California’s electricity, 79% of Massachusetts’ electricity, and 41% of New York’s electricity.
I keep warning that as oil and gas demand normalizes, and I can assure that it will, a lack of investment in new supply this year could come back to bite and cause a price spike. Those pushing NOT to invest in new oil supply for whatever reason today might be sowing the seeds of our next recession. I’d argue it’s rather apparent: not investing in commodities that are nowhere near replaceable is a recipe for a disaster.
The U.S. Department of Energy projects that global oil demand (down 8% this year to 92-93 million b/d) will fully rebound to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. Oil and gas meet 70% of U.S. energy demand, so as our economy goes, so goes the need for their supply.
As inventories drain and vaccines start to rollout, we are seeing more and more forecasts for crude even to hit $60 next year for international benchmark Brent, a 50% jump for the average this year.
Indeed, don’t be fooled, lowered oil consumption this year is much more temporal than structural, hardly surprising since oil – still easily the world’s most vital fuel – has no material substitute whatsoever.
The market is showing this as obviously true: energy stocks dominated and rallied 27% in November on the fast coming positive vaccine news.
Source: Forbes
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,828
  • Dec 7, 2020 9:19pm Dec 7, 2020 9:19pm
Unusual calendar curve...... interesting......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,829
  • Edited 11:54pm Dec 9, 2020 11:20pm | Edited 11:54pm
Financial Energy Spread vs. Financial Energy Swap

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/ebf301/node/549
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/ebf301/node/548

Specifically, I am interested in /NG-/HH spread (or swap). For details: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...rading.353257/
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,830
  • Dec 12, 2020 1:27am Dec 12, 2020 1:27am
A good reference material for futures spread trading:
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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ElectronicTradingConcepts.pdf   1.3 MB | 1,147 downloads
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,831
  • Dec 12, 2020 6:21am Dec 12, 2020 6:21am
Futures Butterfly Spreads

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,832
  • Dec 14, 2020 9:17pm Dec 14, 2020 9:17pm
Quoting heispark
Financial Energy Spread vs. Financial Energy Swap https://www.e-education.psu.edu/ebf301/node/549 https://www.e-education.psu.edu/ebf301/node/548 Specifically, I am interested in /NG-/HH spread (or swap). For details: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...rading.353257/
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I find serious professionals more from Elitetrader than Forexfactory...... Perhaps, 90% of members in FF are 'green line crossing red line' jokers. I am spending more time at Elitetrader now.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,833
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:30pm Dec 16, 2020 7:30pm
Christopher Lewis
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...support-688919

I like his Nat Gas daily analysis and his articles are shown in various media but I don't agree his current view to Nat Gas. He lost buying opportunity as he was too conservative and now he's watching selling opportunity mainly because spring contracts are coming soon and record inventory. However, Nat Gas market has early contango which means professionals view it bullish in a longer term. Also, due to corona vaccine and economic recovery, tight supplies, ...etc, I think selling Nat Gas at this time doesn't look very good idea.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,834
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:48pm Dec 16, 2020 7:48pm
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Successfully installed Big Sur without any issue. Every app including MotiveWave works perfectly. It seems there was no big change under the hood from previous release.... It's faster and cool! I love Apple so much.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,835
  • Dec 16, 2020 7:58pm Dec 16, 2020 7:58pm
S&P500 Energy Index

I can say we've seen the bottom....... Another reason I don't want to short Nat Gas in a longer term.....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,836
  • Dec 17, 2020 3:28am Dec 17, 2020 3:28am
Inter-Commodity Spreads (ICS) and Relative Value Trades
https://www.daytrading.com/inter-com...e-value-trades

A good reading about inter commodity spread trading and its risk.

"..........

Conclusion
Inter-commodity spreads (ICS) are mostly traded within the context of relative value or spread trades. It should be noted that spread trades are not guarantees and should not be conflated with true arbitrage trades where settling a price differential is straightforward.
Traders should be wary of extrapolating the past to inform the future. Because the corn-wheat spread reaches a certain level beyond its historical norm doesn’t mean that it’s fundamentally not justified. And even if the fundamentals don’t support the relative pricing, it is dangerous to assume that the market will begin to discount that insight for you. Markets can move against you for a long time even if you’re ultimately right. Leverage only magnifies the problem.
Inter-commodity spreads are a valuable tool that traders can use, but they are more advanced and require a deep understanding of the cause and effect relationships that move the particular market(s) involved and how they can be utilized to profit off a pricing differential."
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,837
  • Dec 17, 2020 9:12am Dec 17, 2020 9:12am
Quoting heispark
Futures Butterfly Spreads {image} {image} {image}{image} https://youtu.be/XbGh9ITNuhc https://youtu.be/aX1fyBtXy9Q
NGN21-NGQ21-NGU21 butterfly requires only $80 margin!!
I talked to my broker AMP and helped them support this SPAN margin properly. Am I the only client who wanted butterfly spread? Unbelievable.... Anyway, they're open minded and listen to clients feedback. As least for the time being, I don't need to move to Advantage. I don't think I would trade /NG-/HH spread which my current broker cannot clear....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,838
  • Dec 21, 2020 5:02am Dec 21, 2020 5:02am
My holiday reading list......

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,839
  • Dec 24, 2020 4:02am Dec 24, 2020 4:02am
This year became a milestone to me as a trader. I finally abandoned outright trading and started to focus on futures spread trading instead. It's still long way to go but I strongly believe I am walking in the right path. I enjoyed this year, and I will enjoy next year even more.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year !!!

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,840
  • Dec 24, 2020 10:14am Dec 24, 2020 10:14am
Quoting heispark
This year became a milestone to me as a trader. I finally abandoned outright trading and started to focus on futures spread trading instead. It's still long way to go but I strongly believe I am walking in the right path. I enjoyed this year, and I will enjoy next year even more. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year !!! {image}
Same to you and to your family. Lucky you Christmas is already in SK while I have to wait for nearly another 6 hours
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