CRB commodity index

Hello, Dear friends! I have been trading since 2005. I'm looking for the direction of entire the commodity market. The movement of the entire commodity market determine more easily than the movement of the individual commodities. This topic will be considered a futures index Thomson Reuters / CoreCommodity CRB Excess Return (TRJCRB)
The index was created in 1957. At the first time index consists of 28 components, 26 of which were in circulation in the US and Canadian markets. It included the barley and flax with Winnipeg commodity exchange, cocoa, coffee, class "B", copper, cotton, cottonseed oil, wool, hides, lead, potatoes, rubber, sugar, number 4 and number 6, wool and zinc from New York Stock Exchange, corn, eggs, oil, oats, onion, rye, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil and wheat with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and 2 spot positions - cotton in New Orleans and wheat in Minneapolis.

From time to time the index components have changed. Since 1957, it held ten revisions of the index components. The first review took place in 1961 and the last in 2005.
Today, the index includes 19 commodities.

The composition of the index:

Energy raw materials - 39%

WTI crude oil - 23%
Natural gas - 6%
Heating Oil- 5%
Gasoline RBOB - 5%

Agricultural products - 41%

Corn - 6%
Soybeans - 6%
Live Cattle - 6%
Cotton - 5%
Coffee - 5%
Cocoa - 5%
Sugar - 5%
Orange juice - 1%
Lean Hogs - 1%
Wheat - 1%

Precious metals - 7%

Gold - 6%
Silver - 1%

Industrial metals - 13%

Aluminium - 6%
Copper - 6%
Nickel - 1%

The index is not traded. It is used for general information about the movement of the commodity market. CRB on-line:
http://www.investing.com/indices/tho...-jefferies-crb
I consider the overall situation in the global economy and give a forecast.

The market situation is getting better. The collapse of Chinese stocks on Thursday at 6% did not cause the collapse of other countries, investors are not worried, they are positive. Bank of China has invested in the financial system $ 135 billion since the beginning of the week.
Analysts Research Affiliates, Goldman Sachs, Black Rock and Templeton Asset Management believe the market is very cheap and take bullish positions.
Now oil prices. Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will meet in March to stabilize oil prices.

Forecast: CRB buy

News.
Gold rose in February by 11%. This is the largest increase for the month, for the past 4 years. Chinese traders are very active in buying gold.
Analysts at Societe Generale: commodity prices are very low.
Unemployment declined in Europe. In December, unemployment was 10.4% in January to 10.3%.
Now Europe 16,650,000 unemployed.
Warren Buffett has written a letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. In this letter, he criticized US politicians who are pessimistic. Renowned investor believe in the US economy.
16 Chinese oil companies have united in a federation to buy oil. They will begin to test the purchase of oil at the end of March.
UAE Minister of Energy requested all countries to stop oil production. This is done to raise oil prices.
Manufacturers in the US reduces oil production, but they will increase production if the price is $ 40.

Forecast: CRB index buy

We have learned some important news from the US last week. Beige Book Report: US in seven of the twelve districts of the rise in economic activity.
Car sales are growing. Consumer spending increased. The business community is positive about the economic growth in the future. The tourism sector, building industry, employment, lending are growing.
March 20 is scheduled to meet countries oil producers in Moscow. Nigerian Oil Minister: "Oil prices recovered very slowly, but if the meeting will be held March 20 in Moscow - the price will move faster. Our common target - to $ 50 per barrel. "

Forecast: Hold long positions.

Gold grows. Investors have 40 consecutive days to invest in ETF specializing in gold. Since there are such ETF, has never been to that for 40 consecutive days to get invested.
Major investors in gold are the central banks of Russia and China.
Executive Director raw company Glencore International chief coal trader Ivan Glasenberg convinced that the commodity market has formed a bottom and there are no obstacles to the growth, as well Glasenberg said that fears over a slowdown in China's economy in vain and his company receives a large volume of orders from China.
Jonathan Whitehead from Societe Generale said that when oil prices fell below $ 30, "the feeling that the market is overdone."

Forecast: Hold long positions.

Markets are growing. I can not see any technical or fundamental obstacles to further growth.

To hold long positions

The market is contradictory mood. After the big growth of the commodities, I think that would be a small correction. Bank of America Merrill Lynch conducted a survey among large managers, they think that the economic growth is now over. Friday commodities market decline shows danger. We fix profits. Position - out of the market.

Forecast: sell CRB index

After a big commodity market growth, I expect the correction is happening now.
China's economic growth slowed to its lowest level in 25 years.
US crude stocks rose last week by 9.36 million barrels to 532.54 million barrels, with growth forecast at 3.1 million barrels.
Investors around the world are concerned about the excess raw materials. Slightly more than half of Britons are set to withdraw from the EU. The terrorists have intensified their forces on the territory of the EU is more than expected, making it even more destabilize the markets.
Forecast: hold short positions

April 17 at Qatar will be a meeting of OPEC - the purpose of the meeting to raise the oil to $ 50. If in March, oil companies are not able to raise the price, and in April, it is unlikely to succeed. Analysts at Barclays believe that oil will fall to $ 30
Reductions in retail personnel in Russia in the first quarter was a record, even in 2008-2009, the situation was better. 2015 is the worst year in the retail trade for more than 40-year period.
The Japanese economy is weak, the industrial production in February decreased by 6.2%, industrial production falls in 2011 when there was a tsunami and the accident at the nuclear power plant, the demand for exports from Japan falls. The recession in Japan will be longer than expected. The costs of the country are growing, incomes are falling.

The government sold 30-year bonds with a yield of 47 basis points. Japan is a colony of retirees. The graph shows the demographic collapse in 30 years, the population decline by 30% to 90mln, while the number of working-age population shrink by 33% to 52 million. To put it simply, the date of redemption of the bonds issued this week in Japan will be more pensioners than employees and a financial and demographic dead end.

Income Americans are growing more rapidly than costs. US citizens have become more frugally, people are afraid of instability in the world economy.
Forecast: hold short positions

Results of trade for March

29.02.16-01.04.16 CRB index +197844 pts

29.02.16-18.03.16 buy +145715 pts
21.03.16-22.03.16 n/a
23.03.16-01.04.16 sell +52129 pts

Main commodities

Oil(CL) +1123 pts
Gas +111 pts
Gold +5860 pts
Aluminum -12750 pts
Copper +262 pts
Corn +2263 pts
Soybeans +2738 pts
Live Cattle +1298 pts

The market grown slightly last week. But bears are still strong, the market will fall.
A wave of corporate defaults is coming to the US economy. The recession unfolds. labor cost is very high.

Forecast: hold short positions

We look forward to Sunday April 17, will meet in Doha. If the meeting does not bring results, then the price of oil falls to 30 dollars. As problems in the banking sector. In addition to all the strengthening of the dollar. The government of Russia has once again launches privatization, state-owned company passes into the hands of some unknown people. In the short-term commodity market will fall.
Forecast: hold short positions

The situation of uncertainty. Close short positions. We will wait for next week.

This is an educative thread. I am surprised that it doesnt have that much traction.

I heard about the CRB Index from InnerCircleTrader and I want to learn how you personally use it.