Cycle Trading

AUDUSD Forecast for the past 2 weeks. It's been spot on. My money's been in other markets, but the new time/price cycle composition is universal. I'll be looking for a good short opp on the pair.

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2 Orders triggered. ITM Puts with strikes at .7720 and .7700 meaning price needs to be a tick below each to pay me out.
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Result:
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The forecast and result:
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GBP/JPY. This one was easy. Price coming off of a trendline. I got in a little earlier than I should have, but the end result was the same.

2 ITM Puts with strikes at 141.80 and 141.40.
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The forecast and result on a 60 min chart:
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Same trade but with a 24 min. chart:
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EURUSD
Had to sweat this one out a little, but the cycle low was spot on. Entered a Put with a strike of 1.5800 on what I thought was a double top. Price finally got below that level to pay me off. 5-0 overnight. Done on the week.

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Forecast and result:
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The Gann Emblem Forecast.. something I've had in mind for years but never developed. I've now developed it. It inverts regularly but a quick adjustment will get it in phase. Doesn't matter. It's the swings that matter. To the minute entry on the GBPUSD just now.

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The add-on and the exit. Scalp!

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Those were just demo, btw. My money trades are in Nadex. currently have an ITM GBPUSD at 1.2240 and cheap OTM at 1.2320. 1.2240 is 43 pips up. 1.2320 37.5 pips out but is only risking $17 per contract to win $83.

The new forecast works on any time frame. Current 5 min. map for GBPUSD:

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This is the Gann Emblem:
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So I went on a MT4 programming tear. Still quite a few more ideas to implement, but below is a screenie of what's been done so far.

The price-time forecast is the magenta dotted line. I added a zig zag to it just because. It's been inverted the last day or so but I think it's about to come back around. I can make an adjustment to the cycle that could probably take care of that, but on this time frame, I'm just going to leave it as is.

Since the price-time forecast can get way outside of the current price viewing area, I detrended it and made an oscillator. The top oscillator has the de-trended forecast as the yellow line. Current de-trended price is the green/red oscillator. The yellow won't change.. no repainting since it's a forecast. I've never seen the point in re-painting other than to make the past look good. I trade the present where it matters. The red/green is just a normal oscillator to show current against the forecast.

The middle oscillator is a volatility forecast. Same concept as above.. yellow is the forecast, red/green is current.
The bottom oscillator is just volume with a yellow line forecast.

I drew in vertical lines on where I expect some highs/lows. Since it's Sunday, who knows how much actual movement will come in. Could be 50 pips could be 5. The forecast doesn't care. It's just forecasting swings. Not magnitude or direction although it does a good job of that most of the time.

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Last week's S&P Forecast vs actual. This version of it use two lines representing forecast high/low. When the two lines are close, those are smaller bars and when it's wider are the longer bars.

Pretty spot on in terms of timing and direction.

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Nadex AUDUSD binaries OTM .7600 and ITM .7560 cashed. One more at OTM .7600 that I'm trailing that is already over 100%.

Entry and result so far. I flipped the phase on the detrended osci but the lines are still the same. I didn't take the prior drop near market open, but that was to the bar as was my long entries.

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Last OTM .7600 cashed in.

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S&P played out to the forecast pretty spot on today. I didn't trade it. Made all of my money for the day on AUDUSD.

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Here's how EURUSD played out. Unreal how the forecast picked up the spike up.
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GBPUSD. Meandering downward trend. A bit awkward for the detrended forecast since it shows as mostly flat.
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AUDUSD continues to pay me off. Long near the Sydney open at the move up to the bar. OTM strike .7600 cashed deep ITM. Shorting looking at OTM .7600 again. Order set to cash on a touch.

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OTM .7600 cashed. Just put in a waaaaay OTM .7640 for cheap. Big pay off should it touch. Going to wait for the pullback for a possible ITM to cover the cost of entry.

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USDCAD cheap OTM looking for a touch of .3360.

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Here's some of my secret sauce.... Look at the dollar index. Then choose whichever USD pair has the best setup/pattern/up coming news. Hence USDCAD right now.

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GBPUSD. I didn't get any of this, though. Took a small loss going long off of that last baby push up before the big drop. That drop happened sooooo fast. Decided to stay out and be glad my small OTM premium was all I lost instead of an ATM or ITM premium.

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My Nadex strategy for deciding what moneyness (OTM vs ITM/ATM) is based on where price is within its statistical range. Learned that one the hard way.

USDX. This is part of the reason I was looking to go long on the GBPUSD. The forecast is pretty good picking up the turns, but as mentioned before, magnitude might be off. In this case, the push up on the dip after that first magenta line was pretty substantial.

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Just for poops and giggles, how about bitcoin?

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Picked up the bitcoin ETF rejection decision pretty well, eh?

Ooops... wrong chart.

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