Gold Discussion

I think gold behaves like the other assets, so it will drop when the S&P500 drops and rise when the S&P500 rises. Just like it did tuesday.
There are some important reports thursday (PPI and TIC-report) that could move the stockmarket substantially. So those reports could also decide how gold will move in this week.

hold the position, itll go up up up

Gold still isn't saying which way it wants to go.

I don't trade it but I keep an eye on it. I think there will be a sharp upward move soon.

o really turn of the PARs on dailly and ull see it wonts to go up, at least thats what my charts says...

Always glad to hear other opinions, but even with todays move I think until Gold closes above last fridays 3/9/07 pivot high it hasn't said which way. Charts may indicate but price speaks louder.

Hey Jose is it going up in April? I thought it would have broken the 700 barrier by now. If an evasion of Iran happens soon maybe in a couple of days/weeks bullion will skyrocket with Asian and Middle Eastern natiions buying Gold like its going out of fashion. I personally believe that precious metals are a must have investment for every individual to own as an inflation hedge against fiat money manipulation. Rumors of American banks taking physical deliver of new North American Dollars (NAD) are starting to surface. I'm not sure about how true they are, but you can see yourself trading in the future saying, 'come on NAD, go NAD, go, yes, show me the NAD's!' :

* Gold's fundamentals are very positive. The world's mines produce about 2,500 tonnes of gold a year, while demand for gold is currently running about 4,000 tonnes. And new demand from emerging countries like China and India is soaring.

* The Fear Index is flashing a buy signal. This index measures the financial markets' anxiety about the dollar and the U.S. monetary and banking system, and in the twenty years since GoldMoney's James Turk invented it, each of its "buy" signals has been followed by a marked, sometimes spectacular, increase in gold's exchange rate. Chapter 11 of "The Coming Collapse of the Dollar" explains the Fear Index in detail, but for now suffice it to say that it's flashing a screaming "buy." Click on "Latest Charts" for the most recent Fear Index chart.

* Central bank manipulation is about to backfire. The world's central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, have been making up the difference between mine production and gold demand by secretly dumping their gold on the market. They do this by lending their gold for a nominal interest rate to "bullion banks" like JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup, which then sell it and invest the proceeds at higher rates. Because the banks are obligated to return this gold to the central banks, they're "short" the metal. At some point in the future they have to buy this gold back on the open market. If gold's price is low, they make money, and if it's high, they lose. Since it's currently high and rising, these banks are looking at multi-billion dollar losses. And as these losses mount, the pressure grows to bite the bullet and close out their short positions by buying back their gold. When one bullion bank does this, the others will be forced to follow, producing a classic "short squeeze," in which all the major bullion banks try to buy at once, sending gold through the roof. Chapter 12 of "The Coming Collapse" offers an overview of the central banks' machinations. For a far more detailed treatment, see Sprott Asset Management's 70-page report, "Not Free, Not Fair: The Long Term Manipulation of the Gold Price," available at www.sprott.com.

Add it all up--favorable demand trends, a Fear Index buy signal, and the coming central bank short squeeze--and the year ahead should be a spectacular one for gold.

Hello,

Addicted to Gold Traders!

I wish a lot of contribution!

we will go on the hourly later on.

why the thread been moved to the Member's Lounge section?

We knew the boys have left here. (@ area marked with e blue line)

Will there be a round 2?

I'd even say there'll be a knockout

I think Barclay's said it best when they announced last week it's no longer a financial crisis but now an inflation crisis. Gold moves on global inflation and should not stop rallying until energy/food calms down.
If you're looking for the top of oil it could very well be here for a few more weeks as every time we hit a round number it stalls and returns to the previous round number. Also corn took a wild gap down today despite flooding, storms throughout the midwest knocking out a couple per cent of the US corn crop and at the same time nations are threatening to cease export of grain crops.
(I guess the geniuses that are driving up oil aren't spreading the wealth evenly nor intelligently.)

You should draw more random horizontal lines to be safe. How can a line that has been violated 3 times and respected once be significant?

Phil i gotta stick up for horizontal S/R here because i feel it's under attack. horizontal S/R can be violated 100 times and still be effective. Patterns are powerful and you only want to use these horizontal lines when something else lines up with it like a pattern or trendline. The way I draw horizontal S/R is anywhere support became resistance. I'll leave that line on my charts until I have a newer one 10 pips from it. Otherwise it's still legit and will turn the market when combined with another pivot.
I hope I'm not stepping on anyone's toes here.

In most terms regarding S/R, I've tried to use the term potential S/R. Because none of us here can actually tell if that area of S/R gonna hold or not, its just a probability. Many even use the term very strong S/R, which is nothing else than hope(ing), unless you have anything else of TA that confluence with it.

Even though S/R can usually/easily be plotted on your chart, there is examples where S/R lines doesn't make any/much sense, in the term increased probability.

Like with the currently daily chart of gold, there isn't many clear areas where support or resistance seems fairly obvious without lowest low or previous LH which price is trading above as we speak.

Old-school chart with only closing-prices;

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/e...2/0007osle.pdf
Not trying to start a pissing contest here. This is support and resistance and this is how banks trade so I call the way I trade support and resistance. When in Rome...
Potential is more accurate when describing any (100%) support resistance so why bother saying it?

I just can't see understand how a line that has been repeatedly violated now suddenly has magical powers to stop the gold market from further rise. I've seen more guys lose money and/or leave money on the table because they made decisions based on some line that made them feel better about themselves.

I'm not sure I get your point. If you got something educational to add within the field of S/R I'm all ears.

It seems like we have to ask ourself why do we bother with levels of S/R. I believe we could agree that we are interested in those areas because we see a probability for many buy/sell order to hit that area. So, we can now say that areas of S/R is formed around numbers where price stay least time at.

So, what do we really discuss here ? Technical analysis as all about empirical observation rather than unreliable theories someone once told me.

The link to the PDF is the empirical study/definition of Support/Resistance used by banks worth billions of dollars. Sorry my post was not clear. We've wasted enough time in this thread.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/e...2/0007osle.pdf