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Gold Discussion

  • #181
  • Dec 6, 2006 1:03pm Dec 6, 2006 1:03pm
Any Questions?
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Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #182
  • Dec 6, 2006 3:06pm Dec 6, 2006 3:06pm
I don't usually post my trades, but I have to post that I got myself flat in my gold position today at $644.60...Expecting a pullback to the $610-$615 range, that's why I exited & waiting for the pullback to complete and I will buyback once again...

Actually it was a tough decision to take today specially that I rarely trade during the electronic session, but today I did as I was expecting the pullback would start today...


Thanks,

Nader
  • #183
  • Dec 6, 2006 4:22pm Dec 6, 2006 4:22pm
Seems the bears won this one

I'm still long, didn't close my positions, oopsy. I'm still expecting us to hit the 650 mark decisively. Am I mad????
  • #184
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:23am Dec 7, 2006 6:23am
if someone is mad,...thats certanly goes to me,...where do u guys think gold may found the bottom 615-625,...but if it drops that low,...then the cable must broke 1.9400 and u?
its just money
  • #185
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:44am Dec 7, 2006 6:44am
the 627( 61. ret ) will offer support - if if this is broken you will see 615 hit
  • #186
  • Dec 7, 2006 2:32pm Dec 7, 2006 2:32pm
good call jarrett!

must say i've been riding this one all over the place like a redeo. tomorrow we should see what way its gonna go after the employment data.
  • #187
  • Dec 7, 2006 3:29pm Dec 7, 2006 3:29pm
I added to my position the other week at 646. It got stopped out overnight.

Thankfully my other positions opened earlier at 587 and 616 have protective stops that will lock in enough profit to cover that loss. I still think gold is the place to be in the next year, but just got a little greedy on the ride up I guess.
  • #188
  • Dec 12, 2006 8:15am Dec 12, 2006 8:15am
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=newsStoryHeader width=400 colSpan=2>12-12-06 15:04 CET</TD></TR><TR><TD>http://wminvest.ldn.swissbank.com/im...eric/trans.gif</TD></TR><TR><TD class=newsStoryHeadline colSpan=2>ECB says gold reserves down by 71 mln euros</TD></TR><TR><TD>http://wminvest.ldn.swissbank.com/im...eric/trans.gif</TD></TR><!--News Body starts here--><TR><TD class=newsStory width=450 colSpan=2>FRANKFURT, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank said
on Tuesday that gold and gold receivables held by euro-zone
central banks fell by 71 million euros to 174.466 billion euros
in the week ending Dec. 8.
Net foreign exchange reserves in the Eurosystem of central
banks rose by 0.2 billion euros to 152.6 billion euros due to
customer and portfolio transactions, the ECB said in its regular
weekly consolidated financial statement.
A total of two euro-zone central banks sold gold, and this
was consistent with the 2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement, the
ECB added.
For details of the report, see the Web site:
http://www.ecb.int/press </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
  • #189
  • Dec 12, 2006 8:44am Dec 12, 2006 8:44am
Thanks. That explaines probably why the goldprice dropped between 1 december and 8 december. The dollar was stronger, but not enough to explain a drop from 645 to 625.
  • #190
  • Dec 13, 2006 4:31am Dec 13, 2006 4:31am
The real price of gold is at the moment quiet expensive compared to historical levels ....therefore physical gold continues to fall. 70% of physical gold is used for jewelry which is down 18% year to date compared to last year. Traders make a very small part of the gold market.
Oil also influences gold strongly...oil is just off a long time low.

Best cure for a high prices is high prices.

A bit of info for you, gold was 20.65 USD an once in 1833- this is around 415.00 in todays money. our tThtht our real price of gold is apparently Thr
  • #191
  • Dec 13, 2006 6:14am Dec 13, 2006 6:14am
Quoting Jarret
The real price of gold is at the moment quiet expensive compared to historical levels ....therefore physical gold continues to fall. 70% of physical gold is used for jewelry which is down 18% year to date compared to last year. Traders make a very small part of the gold market.
Oil also influences gold strongly...oil is just off a long time low.

Best cure for a high prices is high prices.

A bit of info for you, gold was 20.65 USD an once in 1833- this is around 415.00 in todays money.
As you wrote, it is demand AND supply. The last 15 years, the output of South-Africa dropped 43%. And South-Africa is the main supplier of gold. Less supply drives the price up. High prices are no cure for that.

When you look at historical values, you should also look at 1980. At that time the top of goldprice was $820. Main reason was that the inflation went up. The interest went up to 18% in the mids of the 80's. I don't expect this level of interest in the near future, but who knows what could happen the next 10 years.

And if the US goes on and on with their trade and budget-deficit, the dollar could drop further a lot, which also means that the goldprice goes up. Normally the price of gold is put in dollars, but when you would put it in euro's the rise of prices is 50% less.

So I am still optimistic about the goldprice, even with the high prices today. To say it cynically, a good war could spark a new rise of the goldprice.
  • #192
  • Edited 6:50am Dec 13, 2006 6:37am | Edited 6:50am
Yes it is both,...but currently the jewerly shops have already bought enough gold to sell them in coming weeks, so bad demand outperform supply...until dolar doesnt began to loose the ground again

what about oil,...in weeks to come demand should drop,...since many transporters stop working...so oil still in their tanks to be burned in january...and petrol stations with enough of stored oil?
its just money
  • #193
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:22am Dec 13, 2006 7:22am
The Crude Inventories-number at 15:30 GMT will move the oilprice and hence the goldprice. For the longer term I hope that Citigroup is right:

Quote
Citigroup’s research has shown that “the tight internal correlations between the metals are breaking down, nickel and zinc seeing unabated shortages, while copper and aluminum have seemingly swapped roles due to supply response and Chinese import/export tax changes. …Gold continues to frustrate the skeptics, and appears well-positioned on a combination of macro and supply/demand factors.”

Hill noted that gold has been resurgent, driven by seasonally stronger fabrication, the end of the central bank selling year, and the prospects for continued dollar weakness. He estimated that the total gold held in the five principal physical gold-backed ETFs as of December 4 was 19.1 million ounces, valued at $12.4 billion. Citigroup gold forecasts for 2007/08 are $700/750 per ounce. Due to the interplay between investment demand and fabrication, Citigroup declared “we would not be surprised to see a test of the old highs of $850 per ounce.”
  • #194
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:38am Dec 13, 2006 7:38am
I forgot: retail sales will move the dollar and the goldprice.
  • #195
  • Dec 13, 2006 3:35pm Dec 13, 2006 3:35pm
Gold also looks cheap from a number of other angles.

Someone mentioned the 1980's high. Well in inflation adjusted numbers, that's only about $2-300 in today's dollars.
Compare it to how many barrels of oil buys an ounce and its gotten cheap
How many ounces it takes to buy the DOW and its cheaper.
(Sorry for the lack of specific numbers. I've read the calculations a few times, but don't have them at hand to paste in here)


If US housing market continues to dive then the fed will have to lower rates. That'll push the US dollar down which is a good thing for gold.
Potential for a war in Iran.

The list goes on..
  • #196
  • Dec 14, 2006 3:44am Dec 14, 2006 3:44am
war with perzia is only the ilusion....of the greedy one
its just money
  • #197
  • Dec 16, 2006 9:16pm Dec 16, 2006 9:16pm
When looking at the price of gold, besides the supply and demand situation, it is determined by geopolitical/ other economic issues at the moment and forecasted to happen in the future years. Of course. But comparing the "value" today to the "value" of 1980 is comparing all kinds of different variables other than how and what it is used for. Like Apples to Oranges.
  • #198
  • Dec 20, 2006 6:46am Dec 20, 2006 6:46am
today long?

<LI>Testing resistance around 627.00, potential bullish move towards 633.00 and 643.00.
its just money
  • #199
  • Dec 20, 2006 8:05am Dec 20, 2006 8:05am
I don't see a reason for much movement. There are no important news-event so the dollar will not change very much.

On the one hand I see a US-economy slowing down, which means less fear for inflation. On the other hand the situation in Iraq could further deteriorate, which would move the goldprice up. So for me it is a
  • #200
  • Dec 21, 2006 7:49am Dec 21, 2006 7:49am
I am with you. There is a lot of uncertainty which direction and when gold will break.

But right now I see the makings of ABC correction of the Oct 4 / Dec 1 uptrend. Only an A wave so far, B wave might go to 635/640 area ?(guessing), too soon to really know. Then C wave down to about 600 area. Before new uptrend begins.

Longer trend Gold looks up up up.
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