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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #121
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:00am Jul 16, 2012 12:00am
Quoting Captain Jack
That "real" account is no longer broadcasting trades to MyFxBook. I am a very active trader. This was from a "scalping" account and I averaged 28 trades a day in it, over a 14 day period.

I have no need to keep any account linked to a publishing site and only post these in support of what I have posted. Price can be predicted and is not random.

CJ
do u plan to teach this technique? may be u can open a thread?
No place for mistakes
  • #122
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:13am Jul 16, 2012 12:13am
Quoting kk007
Nice result. Would you mind showing the open trades of the account, so that I can see if there are any unrealised losers there?

cheers,
kk007
They should be show now, but they will never close in that account because PFGBest shut their servers down and this was the state of the account at the time it shut down. I have a large sum of money on deposit at PFGBest and will be lucky to ever see any of it again.

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #123
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:33am Jul 16, 2012 12:33am
Quoting Soldier
do u plan to teach this technique? may be u can open a thread?
I have a thread on this method at my home forum, which is a private community of traders. I don't sell signals, I don't manage accounts. I will probably not try to teach it here. This thread caught my eye and I just wanted to add my opinion. I will post charts with my opinion of the direction and intent for PA on a few pairs, as I have done with the AUDNZD chart. I don't need to trade numerous pairs, only a few. I spend hour upon hour buried in price charts, to develop my opinions. The best way I can describe it is that at one time, most people thought the world was flat and if you ventured too far, you would fall off. I believe that the same analogy applies to Forex. Most people believe the price world is flat, but it isn't.

Consider the fact that when you look at your price charts, you are actually looking through a window at price. Any indicators you place on your window only blocks your view of what lies beyond. You have to look through this window and not at the window glass itself. It's a hard concept to grasp and even harder to explain. I "see" price. It's always talked about, price action, but few people actually "see" price. When you do, it's like an Ahhh-huhh! moment. If you ever reach that point of "seeing", you will always see it. You won't be able to not see it after that.

I am also of the opinion that "news" does not drive price, it supports a price move. Price is not random.

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #124
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:51am Jul 16, 2012 12:51am
Quoting Captain Jack
I have a thread on this method at my home forum, which is a private community of traders. I don't sell signals, I don't manage accounts. I will probably not try to teach it here. This thread caught my eye and I just wanted to add my opinion. I will post charts with my opinion of the direction and intent for PA on a few pairs, as I have done with the AUDNZD chart. I don't need to trade numerous pairs, only a few. I spend hour upon hour buried in price charts, to develop my opinions. The best way I can describe it is that at one time, most people...
excellent write up, respect to your post.
No place for mistakes
  • #125
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:53am Jul 16, 2012 12:53am
I have a question jack, i caan see u are member of forex factory from 2009 but u never posted any thing untill recently, so my question is, how long u been trading successfully and how many years it took for u to understand price action trading.
No place for mistakes
  • #126
  • Edited 1:18am Jul 16, 2012 1:17am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting Soldier
I have a question jack, i caan see u are member of forex factory from 2009 but u never posted any thing untill recently, so my question is, how long u been trading successfully and how many years it took for u to understand price action trading.
My Ahh-huhhh! moment arrived this past January. I have blown my share of accounts, using all of the "accepted", conventional methods of trading. I've been through my share of EA's and systems that are hawked, one after another. I have posted sparingly in the past as I had little to say that was of any value anyway. I have been a coal miner for the past 36 years. I have traded various instruments well over 30 years. When I saw price as I see it now, I couldn't believe that what I had been searching for over the years was right in front of my face the whole time.

My wife has been very sick for the past 8 years. She is a cancer survivor and has been ravaged by the disease. I took an early retirement from my job to stay at home and be a caregiver to her this past February. I now trade full time, from home. I had planned on working another 4 years, at a job that would have paid me on average, $200K+ a year. Seeing price as I do now has allowed me to leave my job and stay at home with her. I thank the Good Lord each and every day. I have been offered several jobs as a "trader" or to manage others funds for them. I don't need a salary anymore and I don't want the responsibility of managing any others funds. With her health as it is, I wouldn't take on a responsibility that I may not be able to fulfill should her condition change.

If you want to see price as I see it, all you need to do is look at the charts in the 6th post of this thread, the ones posted by Mike Haran. Disregard any lines or added distractions and tell me what you see. I can tell you that you have seen it several times within this thread, but you haven't really "seen" it yet.

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #127
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:22am Jul 16, 2012 1:22am
Quoting Captain Jack
My Ahh-huhhh! moment arrived this past January. I have blown my share of accounts, using all of the "accepted", conventional methods of trading. I've been through my share of EA's and systems that are hawked, one after another. I have posted sparingly in the past as I had little to say that was of any value anyway. I have been a coal miner for the past 36 years. I have traded various instruments well over 30 years. When I saw price as I see it now, I couldn't believe that what I had been searching for over the years was right in front of my face...
what time frame u prefer to trade?
No place for mistakes
  • #128
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:22am Jul 16, 2012 1:22am
Quoting Captain Jack
They should be show now, but they will never close in that account because PFGBest shut their servers down and this was the state of the account at the time it shut down. I have a large sum of money on deposit at PFGBest and will be lucky to ever see any of it again.

CJ
Sorry, still can't see the open trades there. Have you just changed the setting to allow open trades public? Or you meant you cannot show the open trades?

"Open trades are private" stated there.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/MidA...fgbest1/339716
  • #129
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:39am Jul 16, 2012 1:39am
Quoting kk007
Sorry, still can't see the open trades there. Have you just changed the setting to allow open trades public? Or you meant you cannot show the open trades?

"Open trades are private" stated there.
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/MidA...fgbest1/339716
Try it again... I thought I had it the first time. Should show now...

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #130
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:41am Jul 16, 2012 1:41am
Quoting Soldier
what time frame u prefer to trade?
D1 time frame and when I scalp, it's on the M5 time frame. I prefer the D1 trades, which give me more time to plan my trades. Sometimes, while waiting for D1 PA, I'll scalp a bit to pass the time.

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #131
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:43am Jul 16, 2012 1:43am
Quoting Captain Jack
Try it again... I thought I had it the first time. Should show now...

CJ
Thanks CJ, I got it now. Excellent!

Profit Factor : 89.75
  • #132
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:57am Jul 16, 2012 1:57am
Hi CJ,

I am a newbie of myfxbook. I can't understand the data shown on the drawdown page of your account. Would you mind explaining a bit?

cheers,
kk007
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  • #133
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:09am Jul 16, 2012 2:09am
Quoting kk007
Thanks CJ, I got it now. Excellent!
Those accounts are like any others, they show past trades, which really have little use to most. I prefer to post charts with "live" trades as I enter them and indicate on those charts what I expect PA to do.

When I retired, I had a large lump sum pension as well as a 401K that I rolled over into a self directed IRA. These are the funds I use to establish my trading accounts. I tend to trade large lot sizes and do not use stops most of the time. Like my opinions on price, my opinions on risk management differ from the norm as well. But you can see that even trading these large lot sizes, I have almost a zero percent risk of ruin chance. Some people who know me well call me a "freak" and some say I "scare them" with my price predictions, as they follow the live trades. The more "disciplined" you are as a trader, the harder it is to understand how and why I trade as I do.

You have to understand that every tool you use, from your platform up, is created by by those on the other side of your trade. They are not designed for your benefit, but for the brokers and the marker makers who pilot price. They know every "tool" and indicator, every candlestick pattern, every MA, and every S/D level because they are the ones who paint the picture you see on your glass window. They know most retail traders are under funded and over trade their accounts. They know people will get greedy and add to their positions when the start to move into profit. It's as easy for them to walk price back to the negative side and put you in margin trouble. They know just how far back to go to trigger the stops. How many times has your stop been triggered, ending your trade, and then reversing back to a level that would have been profitable? It happens for a reason and that reason is that price is not random. It moves with direction and intent.

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #134
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:16am Jul 16, 2012 2:16am
Hi CJ,

Thanks a lot for your explanation. Really appreciated, although I am not up to the level to understand how you make your way to success.

Best wishes for your continue success!

cheers,
kk007

Quoting Captain Jack
Those accounts are like any others, they show past trades, which really have little use to most. I prefer to post charts with "live" trades as I enter them and indicate on those charts what I expect PA to do.

When I retired, I had a large lump sum pension as well as a 401K that I rolled over into a self directed IRA. These are the funds I use to establish my trading accounts. I tend to trade large lot sizes and do not use stops most of the time. Like my opinions on price, my opinions on risk management differ from the norm as well. But you can...
  • #135
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:19am Jul 16, 2012 2:19am
Quoting kk007
Hi CJ,

I am a newbie of myfxbook. I can't understand the data shown on the drawdown page of your account. Would you mind explaining a bit?

cheers,
kk007
Draw-down as you have it displayed is the difference between the account balance and the equity in the account. It is usually displayed as a percentage. At the peak draw-down, the equity would be 80K+ below the account balance. As draw-down decreases, the account balance and equity come closer to equaling each other. On the days where draw-down is indicated as a positive number, the equity would be greater than the account balance. It has to do with the open trades.

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #136
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:20am Jul 16, 2012 2:20am
Quoting Captain Jack
Those accounts are like any others, they show past trades, which really have little use to most. I prefer to post charts with "live" trades as I enter them and indicate on those charts what I expect PA to do.
That would be excellent.
  • #137
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:25am Jul 16, 2012 2:25am
Quoting duyk20
That would be excellent.
I have a large position in the AUDNZD pair based on the chart I have posted here. The EURAUD chart also shows a live trade as I am LONG that pair based on my posted chart.

CJ
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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #138
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:27am Jul 16, 2012 2:27am
I got it now. Thanks a lot CJ!!!!!

I think you have more than 300% growth of your account since Jun 19, 2012!!!!

That is within less than 1 full month!!!

Quoting Captain Jack
Draw-down as you have it displayed is the difference between the account balance and the equity in the account. It is usually displayed as a percentage. At the peak draw-down, the equity would be 80K+ below the account balance. As draw-down decreases, the account balance and equity come closer to equaling each other. On the days where draw-down is indicated as a positive number, the equity would be greater than the account balance. It has to do with the open trades.

CJ
  • #139
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:33am Jul 16, 2012 2:33am
Quoting kk007
I got it now. Thanks a lot CJ!!!!!

I think you have more than 300% growth of your account since Jun 19, 2012!!!!

That is within less than 1 full month!!!
Very risky.

The market may get you one day if you don't use SL. I don't know..
  • #140
  • Jul 16, 2012 2:45am Jul 16, 2012 2:45am
Quoting duyk20
Very risky.

The market may get you one day if you don't use SL. I don't know..
It may, but if I make a mistake in plotting price, I will know quickly as PA will not follow my "map" and I close it out quickly. If I have plotted PA correctly, there is little chance of price going against my trade. When I do use a stop, I will place it 10-20 pips above or below the last swing high or low, but I monitor the trades closely. So far, my biggest loss has been to the crooks at PFGBest, who stole the funds of many traders, and not by a bad trade.

CJ
A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
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