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Gold (XAUUSD)

  • #261
  • Mar 19, 2026 7:54am Mar 19, 2026 7:54am
Quoting Newtrader025
Gold Chart Analysis | March 19, 2026 - Key Levels & Trade Setup Dear Gold Traders, At present, market sentiment is evenly balanced, with buyers and sellers split nearly 48-52%. This means we shouldn’t expect a decisive move unless an imbalance emerges. The upcoming H4 close could be the key trigger. Sell Setup Break below $4,675 support Target zone: $4,664 Buy Setup Break above $4,720 resistance Target zone: $4,736 No-Trade Zone Avoid trading between $4,675 - $4,720, as price action...
Dear Gold Traders,

the sell breakout setup worked perfectly, after breaking the $4,675 support level; I made this +3.26% by this sell breakout trade; what about you?

Done for the day!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Sell Trade.png Size: 35 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #262
  • Mar 19, 2026 8:28am Mar 19, 2026 8:28am
Quoting CoffeeFreak
{quote} Large move down during the European session, right now momentum is clearly down. In my long term view, this move is overdone but still too early to say when. Right now, it's watch and wait.
Yes Bro; Last hour’s sell candle was the decisive signal of selling strength. With that move, buyers now face an uphill battle- proving their strength against an imposing 800+ pip sell wall is no easy task.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #263
  • Mar 19, 2026 8:29am Mar 19, 2026 8:29am
Quoting Newtrader025
{quote} Dear Gold Traders, the sell breakout setup worked perfectly, after breaking the $4,675 support level; I made this +3.26% by this sell breakout trade; what about you? Done for the day! {image}
Nice

I personally have been in gold since $1800 and am riding the secular bullish trend. But I enjoy analyzing the market everyday. Just waiting for the this pullback to realign with the secular bullish trend, which might be sharp and fast. But as previously stated, I wait for the market to tell me what it's going to do.
  • #264
  • Mar 19, 2026 8:36am Mar 19, 2026 8:36am
Quoting CoffeeFreak
{quote} Nice I personally have been in gold since $1800 and am riding the secular bullish trend. But I enjoy analyzing the market everyday. Just waiting for the this pullback to realign with the secular bullish trend, which might be sharp and fast. But as previously stated, I wait for the market to tell me what it's going to do.
I like how you put it: waiting for the market to tell us what its going to do. Thats the discipline that keeps traders on the right side of the move.
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #265
  • Mar 19, 2026 8:44am Mar 19, 2026 8:44am
Quoting Newtrader025
{quote} I like how you put it: waiting for the market to tell us what its going to do. Thats the discipline that keeps traders on the right side of the move.
Yes, this was the philosophy that allowed me to go full-time 5 years ago, reading the market and reacting.
  • #266
  • Mar 20, 2026 6:26am Mar 20, 2026 6:26am
Gold Chart Analysis | March 20, 2026 Key Levels & Trade Setup

Dear Gold Trader,
Todays pre-NY gold market outlook is similar to yesterday: both buyers and sellers are active, so the best approach is scalping trades only.

Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above the $4,670 resistance level, consider a buy setup with a target around $4,690.

Bearish Scenario: If price falls below the $4,620 support level, look for a sell setup with a target near $4,575.

Always remember: follow strict risk management rules to protect your capital.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Gold- sell trend.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Buy Trend.png Size: 28 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #267
  • Mar 20, 2026 7:34am Mar 20, 2026 7:34am
Boom Boom! Locked in a sweet +2% on the Gold breakout buy. Thats my cue to wrap it up- Friday gains secured, and +2% is more than enough for the day!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Buy- Profit.png Size: 41 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #268
  • Mar 23, 2026 7:23am Mar 23, 2026 7:23am
Gold Chart Analysis | March 23, 2026 - Key Levels & Trade Setup

Dear Gold Traders,
Today, both buyers and sellers are active in the gold market, making price action highly dependent on key levels.

Bullish Scenario:
If the market breaks above $4,420, we can look for a buy breakout trade.
First target: $4,460
Second target: $4,490

Bearish Scenario:
If the market breaks below $4,450, we can look for a sell breakout trade.
First target: $4,200
Second target: $4,150

Risk Management Reminder: Always follow strict risk management rules. Limit exposure to 1% risk per trade to protect capital and ensure long-term consistency.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Sell Trend- High Levels.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Sell trend.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Buy Trend.png Size: 35 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #269
  • Mar 23, 2026 8:10am Mar 23, 2026 8:10am
Locked in a +2.19% gain on the Gold buy breakout trade - a strong start to the week!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Buy Trade.png Size: 43 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #270
  • Mar 23, 2026 4:49pm Mar 23, 2026 4:49pm
Massively confused
Why is it, at the minute, that when there is war tension in the news, there seems to be lower gold prices but when the news starts to ease up and prospects of war starts to fade/ moments of reconciliation, gold prices seem to be recovering and pushing higher? Conventionally, It is the other round isn't it? When there is high tension in the world and war threats or actual strikes happen gold usually increases in price. On the contrary, when there is deescalation gold prices start to decrease.

What, in your opinion, seems to be driving prices apart from normal accumulation market structure?
Its clearly following wycoffs theory of market structure.. liquiditation lows and making an institutional move to the upside? what are you thoughts?
  • #271
  • Mar 23, 2026 5:11pm Mar 23, 2026 5:11pm
Quoting Surreal2
Massively confused Why is it, at the minute, that when there is war tension in the news, there seems to be lower gold prices but when the news starts to ease up and prospects of war starts to fade/ moments of reconciliation, gold prices seem to be recovering and pushing higher? Conventionally, It is the other round isn't it? When there is high tension in the world and war threats or actual strikes happen gold usually increases in price. On the contrary, when there is deescalation gold prices start to decrease. What, in your opinion, seems to be...

Heres the key thing youre noticing, and youre absolutely right to be confused, because what gold is doing right now looks like its breaking the classic war = gold up, peace = gold down rule.
But its not actually breaking the rule.
Its following a different rule one that only shows up in very specific geopolitical cycles.

Let me walk you through it cleanly.
Short Answer (the real reason):
Gold is no longer reacting to headlines its reacting to macro positioning, liquidity, and central‑bank flows.
So during peak war tension, gold dips because markets are already fully hedged and crowded long.
When tensions ease, gold rises because liquidity returns, yields fall, and central banks resume accumulation.
This is exactly what the 2026 research shows:

  1. Gold trades like geopolitical insurance, not a simple fear barometer.
  2. The big driver is structural central‑bank buying, not retail panic.
  3. War spikes create short-term liquidity stress, which can temporarily push gold down.

Why Gold Falls on War Headlines (Counter‑intuitive but real)

1. Markets pre‑hedge the war before the headline
By the time the media screams WAR!, the big money:

  1. is already long gold
  2. already hedged
  3. already positioned

So when the headline hits:

  1. there are no new buyers left
  2. profit‑taking kicks in
  3. liquidity dries up
  4. gold dips

This is classic buy the rumour, sell the news.

2. Liquidity stress forces funds to sell gold
During sudden war shocks, funds often need cash to:

  1. cover margin calls
  2. rebalance risk
  3. reduce leverage

Gold is one of the most liquid assets on earth, so it gets sold first.
Leeds Research explicitly notes this:
market liquidity stress can push gold down even during war risk.

3. The USD often spikes during war headlines
War → panic → USD demand → gold priced in USD → gold dips.
But when tensions ease:

  1. USD relaxes
  2. yields fall
  3. gold rises

This is why youre seeing the reverse pattern.

Why Gold Rises When Tensions Ease

1. Real yields fall when the market relaxes
When war fears cool:

  1. bonds rally
  2. yields drop
  3. real rates fall

Falling real yields = gold bullish.
This is one of the strongest macro relationships in the entire market.

2. Central banks resume accumulation
During peak tension, central banks pause buying because:

  1. spreads widen
  2. liquidity is thin
  3. execution becomes expensive

When tensions ease:

  1. they step back in
  2. the structural bid returns
  3. gold grinds higher

Central‑bank buying is the real driver of the 20252026 gold super‑cycle.
Skillings Mining Review shows central banks buying over 1,000 tonnes per year.
Thats not retail noise thats a structural regime shift.

3. The market rotates back into risk assets
When fear cools:

  1. equities bounce
  2. USD softens
  3. commodities normalize
  4. gold resumes its structural uptrend

This is why gold rises after the war scare, not during it.
Now about Wyckoff and the structure youre seeing
Youre not imagining it.
Gold is showing:

  1. liquidity sweeps
  2. spring-type behaviour
  3. accumulation ranges
  4. false breakdowns
  5. institutional re-accumulation

This aligns perfectly with:

  1. central‑bank accumulation
  2. sovereign wealth fund flows
  3. macro funds building long-term positions

Wyckoff is a visual description of what the macro flows are doing underneath.
Gold is in a multi‑year accumulation → markup phase.
The war headlines are just noise inside that structure.
So whats really driving gold right now?
1. Multipolarity + de-dollarization
Central banks diversifying away from USD reserves.
This is the biggest gold driver of the decade.
2. Structural central‑bank buying
1,000+ tonnes per year.
This is unprecedented.
3. Real yields and USD behaviour
When yields fall → gold rises.
When USD softens → gold rises.
4. Liquidity cycles
War shocks = liquidity stress → gold dips.
Calm periods = liquidity returns → gold rises.
5. Market structure (your Wyckoff observation)
Gold is in a long-term accumulation → markup cycle.

My opinion, distilled:
Gold is not reacting to war headlines its reacting to macro liquidity, real yields, and central‑bank flows.
The war headlines simply overlay the structure, creating fake breakdowns and liquidity sweeps that look like Wyckoff springs.
Youre reading it correctly.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #272
  • Mar 23, 2026 9:35pm Mar 23, 2026 9:35pm
Quoting Surreal2
Massively confused Why is it, at the minute, that when there is war tension in the news, there seems to be lower gold prices but when the news starts to ease up and prospects of war starts to fade/ moments of reconciliation, gold prices seem to be recovering and pushing higher? Conventionally, It is the other round isn't it? When there is high tension in the world and war threats or actual strikes happen gold usually increases in price. On the contrary, when there is deescalation gold prices start to decrease. What, in your opinion, seems to be...
The Current War in Simple Terms-

This time, the conflict centers on Iran. The key player isnt gold- its oil.

Oil underpins the USD, and the USD in turn is backed by oil. When the supply of oil is threatened, prices surge, and confidence shifts back toward fiat currencies like the dollar. As for gold? Just look at the chart- the story tells itself.
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #273
  • Mar 24, 2026 6:05am Mar 24, 2026 6:05am
Gold Chart Analysis | March 24, 2026 - Key Levels & Trade Setup
Dear Gold Traders,
Todays gold market context is quite similar to the last New York session. Both buyers and sellers are active, and the trend direction depends on key levels. At the moment, sellers hold a slight advantage.

Sell Breakout Trade: Watch for a break below the $4,406 support level. If confirmed, the target zone is $4,350.
Buy Breakout Trade: A break above the $4,480 resistance level opens the path toward $4,510.

If the market decisively breaks this resistance, dont rush- theres a strong chance of a reversal buy setup. Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and always follow strict risk management rules.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold- Reversal.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Buy.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Sell.png Size: 32 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #274
  • Mar 24, 2026 7:58am Mar 24, 2026 7:58am
Quoting Newtrader025
Gold Chart Analysis | March 24, 2026 - Key Levels & Trade Setup Dear Gold Traders, Todays gold market context is quite similar to the last New York session. Both buyers and sellers are active, and the trend direction depends on key levels. At the moment, sellers hold a slight advantage. Sell Breakout Trade: Watch for a break below the $4,406 support level. If confirmed, the target zone is $4,350. Buy Breakout Trade: A break above the $4,480 resistance level opens the path toward $4,510. If the market decisively breaks this resistance, dont rush-...
Dear Gold traders, you already know why I took this sell trade- locked in +2.9% for the day. Im done here, see you all in the next NY session!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Profit- Chart.png Size: 46 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #275
  • Mar 25, 2026 1:07am Mar 25, 2026 1:07am
I trade XAUUSD using an M1 hedging strategy, high-frequency, and I'm not picky about timing. I trade with an EA, with the default trading time set to GMT+2 from 1:30 to 7:00.
Zenith Multi Strategy EA developer
  • #276
  • Mar 25, 2026 1:08am Mar 25, 2026 1:08am
Quoting shufe2007
I trade XAUUSD using an M1 hedging strategy, high-frequency, and I'm not picky about timing. I trade with an EA, with the default trading time set to GMT+2 from 1:30 to 7:00.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Zenith Multi Strategy EA developer
  • #277
  • Mar 25, 2026 4:17am Mar 25, 2026 4:17am
Honestly, Im impressed with the way you analyze key levels in a 30 minute timeframe. As I understand, you mostly focus on short-term fluctuations rather than trying to catch a big wave of growth on higher timeframes. I kept making mistakes because of overholding my positions on XAUUSD. You think it doesnt make sense to play swing-positional strategies on this asset?
  • #278
  • Mar 25, 2026 5:34am Mar 25, 2026 5:34am
Quoting shufe2007
I trade XAUUSD using an M1 hedging strategy, high-frequency, and I'm not picky about timing. I trade with an EA, with the default trading time set to GMT+2 from 1:30 to 7:00.
Impressive setup!
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #279
  • Mar 25, 2026 5:45am Mar 25, 2026 5:45am
Quoting Molsa
Honestly, Im impressed with the way you analyze key levels in a 30 minute timeframe. As I understand, you mostly focus on short-term fluctuations rather than trying to catch a big wave of growth on higher timeframes. I kept making mistakes because of overholding my positions on XAUUSD. You think it doesnt make sense to play swing-positional strategies on this asset?
Thank you! And yes, I focus primarily on scalping. When a range offers about 100 pips of tradeable space, I aim to capture only 40-45%. The reason is simple: not every 100-pip range delivers the same profit potential.

If the market presents a larger move- say 500+ pips-I dont chase the entire run. Instead, I secure 80-90 pips, close the trade, and wait for the next setup based on fresh support and resistance levels. For the second entry, I deliberately reduce my lot size to half of the first trade. That way, I protect the profits Ive already locked in rather than risking them.

My priority isnt maximizing gains-its minimizing losses. Risk management is the foundation of my trading, and I treat it with absolute seriousness.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Trading strategy.png Size: 32 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #280
  • Mar 25, 2026 6:22am Mar 25, 2026 6:22am
Gold Chart Analysis | March 25, 2026 Major Levels & Trade Setup

Dear Gold Traders,
The current trend in the gold market is bullish. A key breakout level sits at $4,600. If price can break and hold above this resistance, well look for a buy breakout trade with a target zone around $4,650.

However, if the market pushes through this level too aggressively without offering a clean breakout setup, dont worry. In that case, well shift focus to a reversal trade opportunity, waiting for strong support confirmation on lower timeframes such as the 30M chart.

Theres also a smaller probability that gold may offer a discounted buy entry below the $4,520 support level. If this scenario plays out, well aim for a rebound toward the $4,580 resistance area.

Reminder: Gold trading is a waiting game. Patience is key- never rush entries, and always stick to disciplined risk management.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD Time Frames.png Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold- Buy Trend.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold - Trend.png Size: 33 KB
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
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