Trading Psychology

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Gold Forecast: Price Looks Steady Below $1,750, Awaiting Key Market Data
After recovering from monthly lows of $1,745-$46, gold prices (XAU/USD) are sidelined as traders prepare for Wednesday's European session.
Market sentiment is cautious ahead of July's US durable goods orders. The recent travels of global policymakers to Friday's Jackson Hole symposium of the Kansas City Fed also temper gold's immediate moves.
As many central bankers head to Grand Teton this week, they hope they can counteract the expected slowdown in economies worldwide by easing inflationary pressures quickly enough.
The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 2.5 basis points (bp) to about 3.03%, supporting gold prices. On the other hand, XAU/USD is under pressure because of economic fears around China, the world's largest consumer of commodities. Bloomberg reported that authorities are trying to stem a downturn due to the deepening housing crisis in China and the continued impact of COVID-19 containment on businesses and consumers.
Following the previous day's yearly high, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuated around an intraday high. Stock futures remain weak in the face of these moves.
Gold price technical analysis: 200-SMA capping gains

The 4-hour chart of the gold reveals a slightly positive scenario. The price gained with a wide spread up bar, closing near the highs. The volume is also remarkable for the bar. However, the price is consolidating, awaiting a catalyst to post meaningful recovery.

The 200-period SMA on the chart seems to halt the rallies. Any breakout above the level may gain strong buying traction.

Gold Outlook Improves as US Dollar Weakens Over China's Optimism
Before Thursday's European session, gold is in a three-day uptrend, revisiting a weekly high near $1,760. As traders await Jackson Hole symposium guidance on interest rates, the precious metal is pleased with the weakening US dollar and good economic news from China.
A 19-point policy package was outlined by the State Council, and the government's cabinet and 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) in stimulus measures were announced.
In light of Dragon Nation's status as one of the world's largest XAU/USD users, positive news from China tends to favor gold buyers.
The commodity's bullish momentum is also supported by mixed US data and low US Treasury yields. Markets are hopeful, however, that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will not make harsh statements during Friday's speech because of fears of an impending recession.
In response, market sentiment improved, and the US dollar declined. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by the most in a week the day before, rebounding from a two-month high to around 3.10 percent.
US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) for the specified period and the second version of US GDP for the second quarter are important for intraday directions. Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Powell is likely to attract a great deal of attention.
Gold price technical analysis: Bulls lacking strong conviction
The gold price managed to break above the 20-period and 200-period SMAs. The price is slowly heading towards the 100-period SMA around the $1,770 area.
However, the volume data is not supporting the upside continuation. Hence, the bulls may be short-lived and prone to yet another fall.

Gold Bears Attempting a Breakout, All Eyes on Powell's Speech
Early Friday in Europe, gold (XAU/USD) prices bounced off intraday lows as sellers pulled back from the $1,750 support confluence. The yellow metal showed a daily loss near its weekly high for the first time in three days.
Recent weakness in bullion may be due to the market's bad mood ahead of Jackson Hole's keynote speech and the Fed's preferred inflation easing. The bad mood could be attributed to China, Iran, and Taiwan headlines.
Chinese authorities have declared a Covid lockdown around Beijing, adding to the US's suspension of 26 Chinese airline flights.
The metal's previous rise was supported by mixed US data and Fed speeches following a drop in US Treasury yields. Compared to preliminary estimates of -0.9% and market forecasts of -0.8%, the second estimate of US gross domestic product (GDP) year on year was -0.6% in the second quarter (Q2).
Before Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, XAU/USD traders may catch an inactive session. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the US Core Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE), may provide some comfort to traders. The print volume will likely decline from 4.8% to 4.7% during the next year, while monthly figures may fall from 0.6% to 0.3%.
Gold price technical forecast: Bears activating again
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The technical scenario of the gold remains slightly bearish as the metal saw a widespread down bar with a high volume. The metal finds support around the 20-period and 200-period SMAs. However, this does not seem to last longer. Gold seems vulnerable to another deeper retracement if the US dollar picks momentum.

Gold Price Consolidating Ahead of Powell's Speech, Eying Trendline Breakout
Prices of gold (XAU/USD) are showing weak momentum ahead of Jerome Powell's remarks. During the Asian session, the precious metal fluctuates between $1713 and $1719.
The price of gold soared on Wednesday after hitting a low of $1,691.46 on Tuesday. Investors invested in the precious metal when oscillators reached extremely oversold levels on lower timeframes.
Also, minutes from the Fed's Beige Book weakened the dollar. Price pressures have slowed consumer spending, according to Fed. Higher payments have delayed household demand for durable goods.
In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) showed a pullback after a vertical decline. Despite jumping to 109.80, DXY will likely bounce ahead of Powell's speech.
Several areas of price pressure have eased, but their impact is far from exhausted, according to the Beige Book. The Fed will continue its hawkish policy despite the feeling that inflationary pressures are easing.
Gold price technical analysis: Calm before storm

In its previous recovery attempt, the gold price found strong resistance around the 50-period SMA (4-hour chart). However, the metal has managed to jump above the level. Though the price consolidates gains after the widespread up bar with a very high volume, the probability of jumping higher is high.
The descending trendline may resist further gains. However, a clear trendline breakout will gather further traction for the buyers and may surge towards $1,726 ahead of $1,740.

Gold Recovers Post-Powell Losses, All Eyes on Inflation Data
The gold price (XAU/USD) breaks an intraday high near $1,715 during Friday's Asian session, consolidating the previous day's losses amid cautious optimism. The lack of key data may have contributed to the metal's recent surge.
Janet Yellen's comments, likely to signal positive developments in US-China trade relations, seem to have boosted market sentiment of late. In addition, stronger US data and hopes that global central banks can weather inflation with a holistic approach and higher interest rates supported market sentiment.
According to US Treasury Secretary Yellen, President Biden is considering lifting some of the tariffs on China. Following the recent rise in the ISM PMI and good trade balance, initial jobless claims in the US fell to their lowest level since May.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 75 basis point (bp) rate hike earlier this week. This will result in 1.25% interest rates for main refinancing operations, 1.5% interest rates for margin lines of credit and 0.75% interest rates for deposit lines.
In response to the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said: "It will take more than two meetings, but less than five." She did not confirm the next 75 basis point rate hike, stressing data dependency. It is noteworthy that Lagarde mentioned that 2023 is part of the negative growth scenario.
According to Reuters, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said they need to be direct and decisive about inflation. As Powell added, "Our policies should result in lower growth and a more balanced labor market."
The market participants now eye the US CPI report due next week to find further impetus for the directional bias of gold.
Gold price technical analysis: Bulls to clear $1,726

The market has technically turned bullish after breaking the descending trendline and making news higher lows. The gold price sees $1,726 as a crucial resistance level to continue the upside momentum. The probability of bullish trend continuation grows higher as the US dollar retraces its gains.

Gold price technical outlook:
After breaking the bearish flag pattern, the gold price has now broken the strong support at $1,690. It indicates a strong downtrend that may aim to test the next support at $1,660. The yellow metal will likely plummet to the $1,600 area if the US dollar remains stronger.
The volume data support the downside momentum. However, if any support emerges, the gold price may jump back above the $1,700 level. Staying above the level may shed off selling pressure. However, the probability of such a scenario is quite low.


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Gold Price Hits 13-month Lows as Fed Rate Hike Fears Mount
On Friday, gold prices hovered near a 13-month low as bond yields increased on expectations of an aggressive Fed rate hike, dampening the precious metal's appeal.
At 06:00 GMT, spot gold was at $1,663 per ounce after hitting its lowest level since April 2021 at $1,659 on Thursday. Prices have fallen 3.1% so far this week. The price of gold futures in the US fell 0.4% to $1,671.40 on Friday.
According to Yep Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, gold appears to be stabilizing after a sharp overnight sell-off. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week, where an aggressive Fed decision is expected, could continue to push prices lower. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated around their highest levels since June as the dollar sought weekly gains against its peers.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September 20-21 monetary policy meeting after consumer prices rose unexpectedly in August. Last week, US jobless claims fell as lower gasoline prices supported spending. Retail sales in August rose unexpectedly as a result of lower gasoline prices. In 2023, everyone is interested in knowing if the Fed will continue to tighten aggressively.
Gold price technical analysis: Demand zone cracked
The daily chart of gold prices suggests that the strongly holding demand zone has been broken. The next stop for the gold is the ultimate level at $1,600. However, it is not sure whether the bulls will appear at that support level.
Alternatively, any surge in the gold price at current levels may provide a sigh of relief. However, the bears will keep dominating below the $1,700 mark.

Gold price technical outlook:

The price oscillates in a narrow range near the yearly lows. The 4-hour chart shows strong bearish pressure as the price stays well below the 20-period SMA. Breaking the intermediate support of $1653 will create further pressure, sending price down to $1,640 ahead of $1,600.

The 4-hour chart shows consolidation around the 20-period SMA. Although the price recovered slightly from the yearly lows, it seems like forming another bearish flag pattern. Any upside attempt will remain capped by the $1,700 level.
Alternatively, the sustained move beyond $1,700 may gather traction and shed off bearish pressure.

Gold price technical outlook: Weak upside attempt
The 4-hour chart of the gold shows another bearish flag pattern in the process. If the recent support of $1,654 breaks, we will see a major downfall towards the $1,600 level.
However, the price is currently above the 20-period SMA. It shows a slightly positive bias for the metal. It is key for the gold to sustain above the $1,700 level to find bullish traction.