{quote} Does Size Matter ?
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
- Post #9,321
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- Sep 17, 2023 10:11am Sep 17, 2023 10:11am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
- Post #9,322
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- Sep 17, 2023 10:54am Sep 17, 2023 10:54am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 2,233 Posts
! ! ! 88% Probabilities in your trading How about 94% ! ! !
(disclaimer...no matter the high probabilites YES they are true....you can still very very easily lose...why...Risk mgmt and YOU)
Well i poked my head in over on twitter and found some interesting things RE: Boxes , Al Brooks, Probabilities , Data
Just remember there is nothing new in trading...Just like Blues Box..just an old retread lol thats revamped to suit me.
First some context : Al Brooks trading the Opening Range....90% probabilities...Nothing new unless spit polished packaged up and
sold as a PHD mentorship for $1000 mth..with over 200 people currently on waiting list lol.... Sucker and his money easily parted !
Normally he goes over the probabilities in first slides of videos worth a quick look IMO always something to learn !
Second Twitter just saw an interesting thread on the probabilities of the first 12 bars of the open...
Al Brooks vids he talks about the first 18 5m bars..
I have posted many charts the last few years and I will highlight the FIRST 5m bar that closes outside of the Box...SIGNAL then we
wait for a trigger in the direction of the signal candle... Following this ?
Now i've crunched the data myself over many many coffees backtesting manually each day...and making notes in my notebook...
But many are smarter than me and can use their computers for crunching data rather than just making money on a trading terminal
I do tho love the data... pssst don't mention it to the Rooo tho i don't want to blow a hole in his magical colored lines bullshit 
But seriously check this out :
12 bar Box... 930-1030 NY equity Open... once Box is closed so AFTER 1030 a 5min close outside of box gives the signal in that direction...Now wait for an entry.
You will see some days of the week have much higher probabilities than others ...BTW Wednesdays are the worst days... That was actually what led me down the
path of Stacey Burke... 3day cycles... Wednesdays are quite often reversal days.. What day last week did I write about all losses....Wednesday...yes it still gets me.
OK to the DATA:
Worth a click to take a few minutes to read the posts and will post some of the highlights
https://twitter.com/AlgoTradevid/sta...95048925683939
Love the boxes
Blue
(disclaimer...no matter the high probabilites YES they are true....you can still very very easily lose...why...Risk mgmt and YOU)
Well i poked my head in over on twitter and found some interesting things RE: Boxes , Al Brooks, Probabilities , Data
Just remember there is nothing new in trading...Just like Blues Box..just an old retread lol thats revamped to suit me.
First some context : Al Brooks trading the Opening Range....90% probabilities...Nothing new unless spit polished packaged up and
sold as a PHD mentorship for $1000 mth..with over 200 people currently on waiting list lol.... Sucker and his money easily parted !
Normally he goes over the probabilities in first slides of videos worth a quick look IMO always something to learn !
Inserted Video
Inserted Video
Inserted Video
Second Twitter just saw an interesting thread on the probabilities of the first 12 bars of the open...
Al Brooks vids he talks about the first 18 5m bars..
I have posted many charts the last few years and I will highlight the FIRST 5m bar that closes outside of the Box...SIGNAL then we
wait for a trigger in the direction of the signal candle... Following this ?
Now i've crunched the data myself over many many coffees backtesting manually each day...and making notes in my notebook...
But many are smarter than me and can use their computers for crunching data rather than just making money on a trading terminal
I do tho love the data... pssst don't mention it to the Rooo tho
i don't want to blow a hole in his magical colored lines bullshit But seriously check this out :
12 bar Box... 930-1030 NY equity Open... once Box is closed so AFTER 1030 a 5min close outside of box gives the signal in that direction...Now wait for an entry.
You will see some days of the week have much higher probabilities than others ...BTW Wednesdays are the worst days... That was actually what led me down the
path of Stacey Burke... 3day cycles... Wednesdays are quite often reversal days.. What day last week did I write about all losses....Wednesday...yes it still gets me.
OK to the DATA:
Worth a click to take a few minutes to read the posts and will post some of the highlights
https://twitter.com/AlgoTradevid/sta...95048925683939
Love the boxes
Blue
The Best Loser Wins
- Post #9,323
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- Edited 12:11pm Sep 17, 2023 11:58am | Edited 12:11pm
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 4,938 Posts
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
- Post #9,324
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- Sep 17, 2023 12:34pm Sep 17, 2023 12:34pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 2,233 Posts
{quote} Can't criticise someone who doesn't just talk, but done the walk as well and over a very long period. If you can write 4 Books that are Best Sellers with some of the Top publishing Houses, that adds credence as well. Plenty of Royalty cheques to look forward to each year. Charging money for mentorships, that is where due diligence should come in, what are you getting , is all the information complete or in parts ? How many parts and how long are going to be taken for a ride ? What will it all cost ? People are in a great deal of Rush, Instant...
People see these High probability scenarios and think they have hit the goldmine...It takes a hell of alot of skill both execution and mental skill,
So so easy to lose...A high probability scenario does not equate to a high win rate...apples and oranges. The 88% is Hype Marketing nothing more.
88% probability correlates to nothing without a whole lot more added to it,,,,
Heres a chart of Oil last week... two examples one of a short signal one a long signal...Where do you short? where do you go long ?
These where do you short and where do you go long are what the market will give you almost every single day so they sprinkle some ICT
in the mix and they add a fancy paid for "Lens" that gives you most likely retrace times/areas and target times/areas... blah blah blah...
How about learn how to actually trade for yourself....
Plug n play tho people soak that right up like they have just invented the Wheel lol...
OK Oil chart....wheres the 80-90% setup ? hmmm hard to see isnt it.... Wheres the meat of the move? I think its the ones I took lol.
No need for probabilites of the opening range...Just trade what the market is showing... Simple structure... Its called trading.
Cheers !
Blue
I think the below charts makes alot more sense ..But I like simple things.....
The Best Loser Wins
- Post #9,325
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- Sep 17, 2023 1:18pm Sep 17, 2023 1:18pm
- Joined Mar 2023 | Status: Member | 1,007 Posts
without patience how can you be a trader?
- Post #9,326
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- Sep 17, 2023 1:39pm Sep 17, 2023 1:39pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 2,233 Posts
trading forex is the hardest easy money you will ever make.
And the learning never ever stops... ROR Risk of RUin is always lurking in the bushes ,,, every single time we open one single trade
that ROR monster is laying in wait... He never leaves you.
You can be on top of the world and lose it all faster than fast.
Which brings me to something I saw yesterday on gasp Twitter or should i say "X" haha...
I follow Corey Mitchell on there whom led me to Steven Goldstein (Brit
) who does AlphaMind Podcast great trader interviews,,Coreys was outstanding...A story all should listen too,
SO I saw Stevens post yesterday saying he wil be doing a podcast with this trader whom just wrote a book... A real loser lol... (hint,,thats good)
Sounds like he had a hard time making some easy money
Cheers !
The Best Loser Wins
- Post #9,327
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- Sep 17, 2023 4:53pm Sep 17, 2023 4:53pm
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 4,938 Posts
{quote} Aint that the whole truth and nothing but the truth ! And the learning never ever stops... ROR Risk of RUin is always lurking in the bushes ,,, every single time we open one single trade that ROR monster is laying in wait... He never leaves you. You can be on top of the world and lose it all faster than fast. Which brings me to something I saw yesterday on gasp Twitter or should i say "X" haha... I follow Corey Mitchell on there whom led me to Steven Goldstein (Brit
While Livermore made his riches during the Great Depression, he was quick to lose his fortune, which many speculate was because of his extravagant lifestyle. by 1934, not a lot was left from his $100 million. soon he declared bankruptcy, had his second divorce, and in 1940 he died by suicide.
He is considered a pioneer of day trading and was the basis for the main character of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a best-selling book by Edwin Lefèvre.
He enjoyed his money whilst it lasted, $100 million is probably over a billion in todays' money at least.
As George Best legendary footballer said after declaring bankruptcy : "I spent all my money on Booze, Birds & Fast Cars, the rest I just squandered"
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
- Post #9,328
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- Sep 17, 2023 5:07pm Sep 17, 2023 5:07pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 2,233 Posts
{quote} Story as sad as Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest traders of his time. While Livermore made his riches during the Great Depression, he was quick to lose his fortune, which many speculate was because of his extravagant lifestyle. by 1934, not a lot was left from his $100 million. soon he declared bankruptcy, had his second divorce, and in 1940 he died by suicide. He is considered a pioneer of day trading and was the basis for the main character of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a best-selling book by Edwin Lefèvre. He enjoyed his money...
"I spent 90% of my money on Booze and Women, the rest I wasted "
ouch has some truth there lol
The Best Loser Wins
- Post #9,329
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- Sep 17, 2023 5:21pm Sep 17, 2023 5:21pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Member | 3,717 Posts
What would you do if you were at the BoJ 
Have yet another yen Bank Holiday today
(what, again !!!!!!!!! ffs hahaaa
)
ps and just guessin', but I reckon the roundup review chart might look exactly the same, as they always do
Trade well folks.
Have yet another yen Bank Holiday today
(what, again !!!!!!!!! ffs hahaaa
)ps and just guessin', but I reckon the roundup review chart might look exactly the same, as they always do
Trade well folks.
- Post #9,330
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- Sep 17, 2023 5:35pm Sep 17, 2023 5:35pm
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 4,938 Posts
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
- Post #9,331
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- Sep 17, 2023 5:47pm Sep 17, 2023 5:47pm
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 4,938 Posts
{quote} Great story Jesse ! Your last quote reminds me of this similar one,,, "I spent 90% of my money on Booze and Women, the rest I wasted " ouch has some truth there lol
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
- Post #9,332
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- Sep 17, 2023 5:51pm Sep 17, 2023 5:51pm
- Joined Mar 2023 | Status: Member | 1,007 Posts
without patience how can you be a trader?
- Post #9,333
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- Sep 17, 2023 6:11pm Sep 17, 2023 6:11pm
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 4,938 Posts
What would you do if you were at the BoJ
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
- Post #9,334
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- Sep 17, 2023 6:21pm Sep 17, 2023 6:21pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Member | 3,717 Posts
{quote} The Holidays can often be the best time to trade............Should never overlook it.
- Post #9,335
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- Sep 18, 2023 6:33am Sep 18, 2023 6:33am
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Member | 3,717 Posts
While the mice BoJ are away, the market maker will play 
Yep, business as usual it would seem. A coupla' Bermuda's thrown in. And running stations to stations as they often will do.
Day is done, Tuesday awaits
all the best, for the rest of it folks
.
Yep, business as usual it would seem. A coupla' Bermuda's thrown in. And running stations to stations as they often will do.
Day is done, Tuesday awaits
all the best, for the rest of it folks
.
- Post #9,336
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- Sep 18, 2023 8:30am Sep 18, 2023 8:30am
- | Joined Mar 2019 | Status: Member | 361 Posts
! ! ! 88% Probabilities in your trading How about 94% ! ! ! (disclaimer...no matter the high probabilites YES they are true....you can still very very easily lose...why...Risk mgmt and YOU) Well i poked my head in over on twitter and found some interesting things RE: Boxes , Al Brooks, Probabilities , Data Just remember there is nothing new in trading...Just like Blues Box..just an old retread lol thats revamped to suit me. First some context : Al Brooks trading the Opening Range....90% probabilities...Nothing new unless spit polished packaged up...
If there's a high possibility of Wednesdays not working to plan...what about taking these days off? Come back refreshed and supercharged for Thurs/Fri..Scale up slightly on the other 4 trading days? Wildlife Wednesdays !! Feed the garden invaders
- Post #9,337
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- Sep 18, 2023 8:49am Sep 18, 2023 8:49am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 2,233 Posts
{quote} Blue..you are a man of stats. If there's a high possibility of Wednesdays not working to plan...what about taking these days off? Come back refreshed and supercharged for Thurs/Fri..Scale up slightly on the other 4 trading days? Wildlife Wednesdays !! Feed the garden invaders
We dont need to trade everyday... My cough cough excuse is that I have adapted / meshed Stacey Burkes methods with mine and Wednesdays can be big days.
The last wednesday with my mindset that day or lack thereof I think it was me rather than the day...AM i sure not really tbh...but its my best guess...
I should say I have improved my Wednesday results since meshing Burkeys methods and have actually done well.....
Almost tho like the "Old wednesday" thing haunts me a bit lol...
But But But I 100% agree....we dont need to trade everyday...Patience is a virtue sitting on the hands waiting for the best setups.
And I do struggle with that
I do love the sound of Wildlife Wednesdays haha!....My neighbour has a huge garden shhhh....probably littered with peanut shells lol....oops
My theory is by me heavily feeding the wildlife it keeps them out of the neighbours garden !!! BOOM
ANYhooo back to the charts for me, bagged a 30pter Dow off the open,,,flat now waiting for the first hour to print High and Low
and re evaluate next move
Cheers
Blue
The Best Loser Wins
- Post #9,338
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- Sep 18, 2023 10:17am Sep 18, 2023 10:17am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 4,938 Posts
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner
- Post #9,339
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- Sep 18, 2023 10:51am Sep 18, 2023 10:51am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 2,233 Posts
Some tougher trading today...
Grossed around 135 pts on the Dow ..was all I traded. Missed an OIL long off the 8am NY session start but thats ok...
Scaled down to 20% after first trade. so truly netted around 50 full pts.
Some big bad 50,60,70 pip candles around the equity open....like playing with fire.
Very focused today and consider myself lucky so stopped trading just before 10NY 7am my time...
Id rather look at the birds anyways !
Have a Great day all
Grossed around 135 pts on the Dow ..was all I traded. Missed an OIL long off the 8am NY session start but thats ok...
Scaled down to 20% after first trade. so truly netted around 50 full pts.
Some big bad 50,60,70 pip candles around the equity open....like playing with fire.
Very focused today and consider myself lucky so stopped trading just before 10NY 7am my time...
Id rather look at the birds anyways !
Have a Great day all
The Best Loser Wins
- Post #9,340
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- Sep 18, 2023 10:58am Sep 18, 2023 10:58am
- Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 4,938 Posts
The Only Limit, is the One that you Set Yourself - Felix Baumgartner