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Flying Dutchman

  • #7,141
  • Mar 23, 2023 5:21pm Mar 23, 2023 5:21pm
We can only assess ourselves in trading, by how we trade the markets.
There is no other metric. Period.
Predictions are fun, but they don't butter the bread if you know what I mean.


A last lookback here at the Morning Roundup, as folks can see I hope what happens in our markets and can then fine tune their own approaches when trading it.
The Market is there in front of our eyes, always has been, always will be.
Trade safe, trade well.

.
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  • #7,142
  • Mar 23, 2023 5:22pm Mar 23, 2023 5:22pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Are you triggering certain folks, again Kev
Those folks have groupies now, so they are beyond saving now.

Still banging on & on about how good TA & PA is for them.............NOT.

Just Joking.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #7,143
  • Mar 23, 2023 5:22pm Mar 23, 2023 5:22pm
I saw what you did there ...
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #7,144
  • Mar 23, 2023 5:28pm Mar 23, 2023 5:28pm
Time for Bed, over to you the Asian Range traders............................

Till the mornin'
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #7,145
  • Mar 23, 2023 5:31pm Mar 23, 2023 5:31pm
Quoting whitesta
Maybe price is doing upside shopping for downside business on GBP/JPY...

Time will tell.

Well done W. That it did
  • #7,146
  • Edited 5:49pm Mar 23, 2023 5:38pm | Edited 5:49pm
Good Morning All from beautiful Wellington. Well i didn't place a single trade yesterday. Still smiling cos the targets and zones (GBP/JPY) i was talking about got hit which shows that atleast i am improving in locating targets. I am just a small part time trader and get couple of hours to see setups. When i get a chance i do look at Aisa session like maybe today. I had talked about the herd zone just before Franky i think. Was confident that it will be visited and most probably broken cos thats where the orders were most likely placed hence, $$$$. The issue was when. For that we had to do our research and see if a top was formed and if price action was showing a move downwards during London or New York session. I had a Target placed just above 161.75 and it was hit at NY open. From what i have seen and learnt here is, its good to wait for retest or a break higher or lower again by price just to shake up any other orders. (sometimes it doesn't happen and price just races away). As Timetells has alluded to us that at times it can go 20 pips beyond or even more after setting a high or low. The confirmation came towards the end of London session with triple tops and the rejection of NY open with four 5 minute pins. I am sure Bluesteele would have taken the trade had he watched the GBP/JPY pair as he trades NY session and has mastered the confirmation style. Yes some can say all in hindsight but these targets were all known beforehand. Setup is the difficult part as we need to be aware of the PFHs and PFLs. What i have learnt is that RNs and Time are the main ingredients. Starting with these 2 helps alot in looking for setups. Herd zones are very good targets. It is all well organised and the fluctuations of price being funny is just to put us off. The targets are where price will always go. How and when is for us to decide with whatever knowledge we can attain. I still get it wrong many times cos thats what we humans do. For that we have Stoploss. As long as we know where we went wrong. Doesn't mean it won't happen again but we can limit our losses always. The setups are there each day. Hindsight becomes foresight. Trade Well All.
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  • #7,147
  • Mar 23, 2023 7:01pm Mar 23, 2023 7:01pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
Normally a good indication is how the US market ends the day, more or less.
GJ dropping from the highs of yesterday, so you could expect some bounce back in the Asian session,
which is where TT & Co. reside.

Too true, pal, we must, as that is where we live.

In Asia I like to watch for the initial expansions first, usually after the news around 10 mins before the 3rd hour now (daylight savings & all hahaa).

Don't really care whether they go high or low first, as it is usually a two-way expansion then to draw in new business, if you know what I mean.

Then from the initial expansions I will loook for a new Hi (or Low) to be established for the morning,
and if its Hi first, then I am assessing (analysing, lol) where the Lo can be at (if NOT already established).
This is the market behaviour analysis I go through in the mornings.

TRADING IT. Well that's a different kettle of fish then. Then its just ME vs ME in amongst all the sharks in the waters to see who gets home safely first

And that to me is the fun of trading, while the TP side is all business though.

Trade on folks, good fortunes.

edit: a chart why not, no more trade charts tho.

I call this chart "Asia, a disadvantge OR an advantage" lol. Each to their own.

.
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  • #7,148
  • Mar 23, 2023 9:12pm Mar 23, 2023 9:12pm
The pip providers had some fun running about in asia (at last lol).

Expansions.
New hi, new lo, then what
(50% is not ever out of the question imho)

We may wonder sometimes though, IF the markets are really random or are quite well organised I guess.

.
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  • #7,149
  • Mar 23, 2023 9:25pm Mar 23, 2023 9:25pm
Quoting TimeTells
The pip providers had some fun running about in asia (at last lol). Expansions. New hi, new lo, then what (50% is not ever out of the question imho) We may wonder sometimes though, IF the markets are really random or are quite well organised I guess. . {image}
They have to be well organized if I am figuring them out.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #7,150
  • Mar 23, 2023 9:33pm Mar 23, 2023 9:33pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} They have to be well organized if I am figuring them out.
What secret sauce have you been drinking, or do you have a banker mate??
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #7,151
  • Mar 23, 2023 9:38pm Mar 23, 2023 9:38pm
Quoting spzd
{quote}
They have to be well organized if I am figuring them out.

Both of us haahaa, we'd be stuffed if it's not organised imo.

The play-arounds that go on in-between are still to me (in my mind I mean) aggregating all the retail trades floating around among the big'uns as IF WE use our analysis and trade in what our analysis suggests is the correct-right-now direction, then who is left taking the 'opposite side" to all our retail correct (lol) trades.

Thus they employ the shakeouts, whipsaws, fakes'n'flips which happen maybe to rebalance their load , well in my mind I mean hahaa, who knows not me.

We can trade amongst it all, if we keep our wits about us I believe.

London & NY when its "all' the big boys then just jump on the directional bandwagon is likely best imo (though I am not trading then so others will know best).

Have a great weekend ahead, Mark, cheers pal.
  • #7,152
  • Mar 23, 2023 9:50pm Mar 23, 2023 9:50pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} ... Thus they employ the shakeouts, whipsaws, fakes'n'flips ... .
In and Out.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #7,153
  • Mar 23, 2023 11:24pm Mar 23, 2023 11:24pm
Quoting ZeroLag
My only point was, why not look for a better entry than the one you are taking. Why not have the market move against you, then enter.
Bar 1 was my signal bar, so I could have just sold on the close there. Bar 2, the following day, made a new high and was against me all day(had I shorted on the first day). By waiting for the market to go against me I could have secured a much better entry for shorts. So my thinking was to incoroporate a lag or delay into my method that forces me to wait. It may be as simple as, after you get a signal, wait for one additional bar (on the same time frame/in the opposite direction of the intended). Anyway, those where my thoughts...
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Get the Lag out
  • #7,154
  • Mar 24, 2023 12:29am Mar 24, 2023 12:29am
Quoting ZeroLag
{quote}
Bar 1 was my signal bar, so I could have just sold on the close there. Bar 2, the following day, made a new high and was against me all day(had I shorted on the first day). By waiting for the market to go against me I could have secured a much better entry for shorts. So my thinking was to incoroporate a lag or delay into my method that forces me to wait. It may be as simple as, after you get a signal, wait for one additional bar (on the same time frame/in the opposite direction of the intended). Anyway, those where my thoughts... {image}...
Hi ZL,

Interesting chart.
Can I ask is the Daily your Signal Chart and then do you go down to a lower TF for entry, or can you enter from the Daily okay.

A new pair for me, so I just threw my basic templates across two timeframes on them to see what is there. The Daily & the current 15m.
Stick with your own ideas always, but charts, I do love to look at everyones.
Wishing you well.

.
.
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  • #7,155
  • Mar 24, 2023 12:48am Mar 24, 2023 12:48am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi ZL, Interesting chart. Can I ask is the Daily your Signal Chart and then do you go down to a lower TF for entry, or can you enter from the Daily okay. A new pair for me, so I just threw my basic templates across two timeframes on them to see what is there. The Daily & the current 15m. Stick with your own ideas always, but charts, I do love to look at everyones. Wishing you well. . . {image} {image}
Yes, I'm on the daily most of the time now, do to time constrains and a general propensity to keep screen time low. Also have had a greater success on the daily vs shorter TF's. I've taken a break for a while and an easing back into things.

I also enjoy looking at charts, yours inclusive.
Get the Lag out
  • #7,156
  • Mar 24, 2023 1:02am Mar 24, 2023 1:02am
Quoting ZeroLag
{quote}
Yes, I'm on the daily most of the time now, do to time constrains and a general propensity to keep screen time low. Also have had a greater success on the daily vs shorter TF's. I've taken a break for a while and an easing back into things. I also enjoy looking at charts, yours inclusive.

Cheers ZL,
Why I asked is the Daily Chart study & entry was my first ever introduction to forex.

The #1 and #2 candles you pointed out would have been exactly my trigger candles also, but living in Aus I never quite knew back then (5 yrs ago) at what point I was to make the entry (from the Daily Chart).

From what I was shown #2 would be a lock sell after 2 pin bar rejections but the market was never so quick, when I was trying them, to respond to the expected selloff straight away, sometimes causing great pip DD as the market went up in the morning before trying to go down again in London and then back up again in New York.

So back then I couldn't quite get the hang of what to do AND when to do it, with "the yesterdays pin bar" and at what point in the new day to enter exactly.

Is this the same as what you are suggesrtng in a few posts, by now waiting for the pullback to get in at a better entry?

all the best
Pete
  • #7,157
  • Mar 24, 2023 1:19am Mar 24, 2023 1:19am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers ZL, Why I asked is the Daily Chart study & entry was my first ever introduction to forex. The #1 and #2 candles you pointed out would have been exactly my trigger candles also, but living in Aus I never quite knew back then (5 yrs ago) at what point I was to make the entry (from the Daily Chart). From what I was shown #2 would be a lock sell after 2 pin bar rejections but the market was never so quick, when I was trying them, to respond to the expected selloff straight away, sometimes causing great pip DD as the market went up in...
My signal is Bar 1 in this instance, and I would have shorted on the close, placing a stop above the high. Bar 2 is the gift for not selling on Bar 1 .

I guess in a nutshell my entire point was about waiting for a pullback to enter. Like you say, you had difficulty in determining where and when to enter. My idea is to place a parameter or two to aid in this. In this case its wait one bar and execute on the close provided its a better price, or do nothing. My though is that this will provide me with less trades, at a better price. Where is the fear of missing out greatest? When the market is moving in your favor, or against you?
Get the Lag out
  • #7,158
  • Mar 24, 2023 1:27am Mar 24, 2023 1:27am
Quoting ZeroLag
{quote}
My signal is Bar 1 in this instance, and I would have shorted on the close, placing a stop above the high. Bar 2 is the gift for not selling on Bar 1 . I guess in a nutshell my entire point was about waiting for a pullback to enter. Like you say you had difficulty in determining where and when to enter. My idea is to place a parameter or two. In this case its wait one bar and execute on the close provided its a better price, or do nothing.

Yes, I agree, #1 was the Sell signal. But as you say when and at what point or time of the following day to actually enter (at reduced risk).
Have you tried your prospective parameters on a free Simulator, for instance.

You can use those Simulators on the weekends also, when the markets are closed, to pull up a day from the past that was "after" a pin bar day, and then just watch how the next candle plays out in fast or slow time (you CAN watch a full Daily candle on the Simulator to get a feel for the delta as it changes also over the course of the day).
  • #7,159
  • Mar 24, 2023 1:32am Mar 24, 2023 1:32am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Yes, I agree, #1 was the Sell signal. But as you say when and at what point or time of the following day to actually enter (at reduced risk). Have you tried your prospective parameters on a free Simulator, for instance. You can use those Simulators on the weekends also, when the markets are closed, to pull up a day from the past that was "after" a pin bar day, and then just watch how the next candle plays out in fast or slow time (you CAN watch a full Daily candle on the Simulator to get a feel for the delta as it changes also over the course...
I've have done some research, yes. But I like to get some skin in the game, for full effect. I will journal my efforts, or start a thread if I see any potential benefit for others.

Cheers mate, have a good day.
Get the Lag out
  • #7,160
  • Mar 24, 2023 3:20am Mar 24, 2023 3:20am
@Pete - long live horizontal lines and Zeppelins
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