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Flying Dutchman

  • #2,821
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:27am Aug 31, 2022 11:27am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I told about E$ here. {quote} When market broke low target it has to reverse because the close of today has to be above pwol else E$ has serious valuation issues, no option. Once E$ is confirmed on the way above dol, that's the cue for the start of the G$ buy hemisphere. But dol is a barrier, that's the value intent. Looking at real time market is difficult. How about me telling about something that has not yet happen days ahead? If I can tell about the market ahead of time, you must conclude that it has got nothing to do with candlestick...
Thanks BW.

What is a sell hemisphere?
  • #2,822
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:31am Aug 31, 2022 11:31am
Quoting FocusWinReal
Thanks BW. What is a sell hemisphere?
Hemispheres are denoted by time. It's a phase of a semi-cycle to move value to it's intended value target. Buy hemisphere raise value, sell hemisphere drop value.
Know what you trade
  • #2,823
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:33am Aug 31, 2022 11:33am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hemispheres are denoted by time. It's a phase of a semi-cycle to move value to it's intended value target. Buy hemisphere raise value, sell hemisphere drop value.
Ok thanks. And the easiest way to determine one is by doing what?
  • #2,824
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:35am Aug 31, 2022 11:35am
I can see in EU that it broke previous low then reversed.

But the 4 charts did not broke previous high yet reversed.

I can also see that some price touched those perhaps previous DOL or levels yet did not closed above them then reversed.

I'm too blind. I must have been cursed. I am a failure.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,825
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:42am Aug 31, 2022 11:42am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
I can see in EU that it broke previous low then reversed. But the 4 charts did not broke previous high yet reversed. I can also see that some price touched those perhaps previous DOL or levels yet did not closed above them then reversed. I'm too blind. I must have been cursed. I am a failure.
You are not a failure FMA. Without instruction how is it you can learn unless you create your own language and way of trading?
  • #2,826
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:47am Aug 31, 2022 11:47am
Quoting FocusWinReal
Ok thanks. And the easiest way to determine one is by doing what?
Market is always in a semi-cycle. Orientated around mol, wol and dol. That's why price move up and down.

If you look at m15 or h1 chart with dol you can see this buy hemisphere but you can't see the failure. Look at h4 chart to see it. That's why the value drop in London session after the early buy hemisphere. Happened the same yesterday. Whereas the hemispheres are inverted on Monday that continued and completed Fridays sell hemisphere first.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Know what you trade
  • #2,827
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:53am Aug 31, 2022 11:53am
Quoting FocusWinReal
{quote} You are not a failure FMA. Without instruction how is it you can learn unless you create your own language and way of trading?
Yeah. The world has been too cruel lately. Perhaps time is needed to assimilate new concepts and detoxify years of forex lies.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,828
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:54am Aug 31, 2022 11:54am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
I can see in EU that it broke previous low then reversed. But the 4 charts did not broke previous high yet reversed. I can also see that some price touched those perhaps previous DOL or levels yet did not closed above them then reversed. I'm too blind. I must have been cursed. I am a failure.
Think in terms of value of the instrument in semi-cycles orientated around open lines.

Instead of ob/os.
There's no such thing as overbuying or overselling an instrument.
Know what you trade
  • #2,829
  • Aug 31, 2022 11:57am Aug 31, 2022 11:57am
BWilliam, per your ask, here are my G$ trades from this morning. I had 2 trades in this pair: Trade 1 was closed with +45 pips, and Trade 2 is still open, currently up about 20 pips (stop is now at the entry). I also traded the E$ this morning, which was a buy trade that is still open and up about 50 pips now, with target above that has not yet been hit. Trade well everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,830
  • Aug 31, 2022 12:00pm Aug 31, 2022 12:00pm
Quoting GEfx
BWilliam, per your ask, here are my G$ trades from this morning. I had 2 trades in this pair: Trade 1 was closed with +45 pips, and Trade 2 is still open, currently up about 20 pips (stop is now at the entry). I also traded the E$ this morning, which was a buy trade that is still open and up about 50 pips now, with target above that has not yet been hit. Trade well everyone! {image}
Thanks GEfx. Finally, someone traded sensibly in line with value intent that I try hard to explain.
Know what you trade
  • #2,831
  • Aug 31, 2022 12:17pm Aug 31, 2022 12:17pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Market is always in a semi-cycle. Orientated around mol, wol and dol. That's why price move up and down. If you look at m15 or h1 chart with dol you can see this buy hemisphere but you can't see the failure. Look at h4 chart to see it. That's why the value drop in London session after the early buy hemisphere. Happened the same yesterday. Whereas the hemispheres are inverted on Monday that continued and completed Fridays sell hemisphere first. {image} {image} {image}
Ok thanks. So in other words price changes and it's best to be on the right side.
I'll leave it there.
Cheers...
  • #2,832
  • Aug 31, 2022 1:49pm Aug 31, 2022 1:49pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Thanks GEfx. Finally, someone traded sensibly in line with value intent that I try hard to explain.
Right. There has been unrelenting intent to get to/test 1.1600. The G$ has been professionally moved to that level and now it's decision-making time for the banks, and the BOE. Fundamentals in GB are trending downward, and the GBP is moving with them. Charts point the way!
  • #2,833
  • Edited 3:15pm Aug 31, 2022 2:36pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{quote} Yeah. The world has been too cruel lately. Perhaps time is needed to assimilate new concepts and detoxify years of forex lies.
On the GU Chart.
You have to look for clues, I dont think it is simply one concept in trading. There are confluences of factors to stack probabilities for a sell. You cant dismiss evidence as lies.
What I can observe on GU which maybe you didn't spot, where it reversed, looking like a random area (no lines), is that market fell rapidly yesterday from US open and retraced back almost as quickly by close of play, leaving behind "gap" what people here call FVG.

The asian market open then filled that "gap" , look at how long it took to come back up to how quickly it fell, When London traders piled in to Short it to previous days low. Targets are all the lows on the way up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,834
  • Aug 31, 2022 4:02pm Aug 31, 2022 4:02pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} On the GU Chart. You have to look for clues, I dont think it is simply one concept in trading. There are confluences of factors to stack probabilities for a sell. You cant dismiss evidence as lies. What I can observe on GU which maybe you didn't spot, where it reversed, looking like a random area (no lines), is that market fell rapidly yesterday from US open and retraced back almost as quickly by close of play, leaving behind "gap" what people here call FVG. The asian market open then filled that "gap" , look at how long it took to come...


also 50 percent fib level from previous day Hi low swing
a good few confluences then makes a mini H and Shoulder in 5 mins chart

edit also S and D flip zone I think
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,835
  • Aug 31, 2022 4:53pm Aug 31, 2022 4:53pm
Quoting MaxiPip
{quote} also 50 percent fib level from previous day Hi low swing a good few confluences then makes a mini H and Shoulder in 5 mins chart edit also S and D flip zone I think {image}
Like I said there were many confluences to enter a short around that price, even the slow grind up during the asian session into FVG, fibs metioned before
by GEFx, Supply etc. etc.

I have mentioned these levels that BWilliams is talking about on another thread "Real or Algo" a while back, when I said that there were levels that can be "predicted" ahead of time. I used previous weekly & dailly opens, previous highs & lows and gaps.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13454118
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #2,836
  • Aug 31, 2022 6:13pm Aug 31, 2022 6:13pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} On the GU Chart. You have to look for clues, I dont think it is simply one concept in trading. There are confluences of factors to stack probabilities for a sell. You cant dismiss evidence as lies. What I can observe on GU which maybe you didn't spot, where it reversed, looking like a random area (no lines), is that market fell rapidly yesterday from US open and retraced back almost as quickly by close of play, leaving behind "gap" what people here call FVG. The asian market open then filled that "gap" , look at how long it took to come...
Does not seem to make sense, what is this Fair Value Gap?

If the market is an Algo, a perfect AI catering all markets, how can a GAP be possible when it only moves in a virtual environment on its own?
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,837
  • Aug 31, 2022 6:14pm Aug 31, 2022 6:14pm
Quoting MaxiPip
{quote} also 50 percent fib level from previous day Hi low swing a good few confluences then makes a mini H and Shoulder in 5 mins chart edit also S and D flip zone I think {image}
I would like to flush myself of this Fibonacci mindset which is unreliable and self fulfilling at most. But thank you for sharing your view.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,838
  • Aug 31, 2022 6:26pm Aug 31, 2022 6:26pm
I think I'm slowly taking ground on here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #2,839
  • Edited 6:49pm Aug 31, 2022 6:27pm | Edited 6:49pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Right. There has been unrelenting intent to get to/test 1.1600. The G$ has been professionally moved to that level and now it's decision-making time for the banks, and the BOE. Fundamentals in GB are trending downward, and the GBP is moving with them. Charts point the way!
Exactly GEfx! You traded that final fall yesterday that's bound to happen. What I'm trying to do is to try open their eyes to what you just wrote. It's all about how real professional traders with billions move this market to reflect the fair value based on the fundamentals, it's straight forward move so far this week. It make sense to fall towards 1.1600, it has to fall and it did fall. It was easy to read this ongoing move as a result of Powell's speech which was expected as well. What happened on the chart is an example of recalibration of G$ value.

Yes it's decision time from here. It gets harder from today.

Our job as a retail trader is to read how and why those professional would move this market in an orderly fashion. And not trade based on assumptions that don't make sense. Narratives that's not connected to the real economy and monetary policy. Exchange rate is an important CB monetary lever. It's not a retail FX market video game!

Retail traders don't know why they make money, can't explain why they make money. That's all they care about, nothing else except make money. No one with real money take such type of speculation seriously. It's simply gambling, the retail way ofc - full of expert market extreme ob/os spike faders.
Know what you trade
  • #2,840
  • Aug 31, 2022 6:45pm Aug 31, 2022 6:45pm
Quoting FulMargnAlch
I think I'm slowly taking ground on here.{image}
Market intent was to rise but as we can see it failed many times since last week as can be seen in PWOL and previous DOL.

This week it also failed to rise and dropped at WOL.

Now yesterday was another try. Price is at buy hemisphere during Tokyo but our Macro is sell.

So what do we do? Considering the Macro is sell, we may expect G$ to drop at DOL or drop after hitting the targets at Newyork session.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
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