CB Consumer Confidence/Richmond Manufacturing - August Preview
Notes
- If The Conference Board's consumer confidence figure comes in lower than expected at the same time Richmond Fed misses, we could see sentiment change and trigger buying in gold.
- Individually, I would not spend the time to preview either of these releases, However, being released together there might be some opportunity.
- CB consumer confidence has been released lower than expected twice in the past five releases (March and June).
- Richmond manufacturing data has come in lower than expected every month since March (five straight releases).
Forecasts
- Consumer Confidence is expected to tick lower to around 129. On a miss, I'd also expect downward revisions to the prior which beat forecasts (135.7 vs 125).
- Richmond Manufacturing is the wildcard here. Market consensus is currently at -2. This data hasn't missed forecasts six times in a row since 2009. This is the first negative forecast since Jan 2019.
Overview
The risk is in gold moving higher on weaker than expected data. Both CB Consumer Confidence (with downward revision) and Richmond Manufacturing would have to show weaker than expected data. If so, it could trigger significant buying in gold as investments move to safer assets in fear of a US recession.
As always, caution is advised. Good luck out there!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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