Didn't realise we were having an argument. I can now see that your intention from the beginning was to try to prove that you are intelligent and everyone else is stupid; Funny how that often works out in reverse plus exposes your obvious insecurity. ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

"I don't know anyone that would attempt to apply statistics to their trades unless they had an extensive knowledge in math" It back to that statistic of expectancy, and it's simpler than most people think. Many people will jump into a trade and set ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

On top of the faulty application of the statistics is the equally possible faulty interpretation of the results. For example, a test was done and it proved that taller people are more intelligent than shorter people. The flaw was that they tested ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

Not quite — I'm not following your post loa1452, but it appears that you are talking about trading systems? I trade using the same systems as other people, yet I have been profitable nearly every month for 14 years. Here's my results for this ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

Why stop at Fibonnaci? Most patterns are no better than 50/50 when it comes to predictive powers; test them all, triangles, 'pinbars' (or Wyckoff Springs as they are more commonly known), stochastics and so on, they all fail to fortell the future!! ...

Why Fibonacci Retracements are Bullocks

EURGBP The converging signals here are too numerous to ignore (daily charts). 50% retracement, sitting on the 9000 line, diagonal trendline support, 61.8 retracement of wave 3. I’ve already been in and out once for a loss of 87 pips, however the ...

Mongooses Trades

AUDUSD — In and stopped out on AUDUSD. REset my orders to buy at 6792 and stop at 6726

Mongooses Trades

GBPJPY Stopped out for a 60pip profit. EURGBP The wave 4 is still in place (60min charts) with the bottom at 8836. Right now prices formed a triangle, and I have placed a buy order at 9126, and a stop at 9039. USDCHF I am currently in this position, ...

Mongooses Trades

I'm not here for a contest between you and I, that's entirely your interpretation. Besides, once of my systems is on this forum, fully disclosed with accounts statements, backtests and programming so if you want to compare you can do that entirely ...

100% Sure Win but only in trending n ranging.

Moved the GBPJPY stop up to 131.2

Mongooses Trades

USDJPY Stopped out for a -148 pip loss. EURCHF In short (see above "Broken downwards out of a choppy looking triangle") and I'm in at 1.4755 with a stop at 1.5141. My opens posisitons currently are: GBPJPY (180.5 pip profit) EURCHF (-26 pip profit) ...

Mongooses Trades

USDJPY to breakeven — My USDJPY order got filled as above. "I have a sell order in at 89.10 with a stop at 89.55" Prices have already touched 13050, so stops are at brteakeven now. I'll exit on a swing stop on 60min charts. My opens posisitons ...

Mongooses Trades

In short on the GBPJPY as mentioned above ( triangle pattern)

Mongooses Trades

USDJPY 15min — Looks like a low risk entry here, but I'm looking for any pattern that allows me to enter short. If this does not occur, then I have a sell order in at 89.10 with a stop at 89.55. My breakeven stop will engage when price touches ...

Mongooses Trades

Before I begin, DEMO test only, do not take my opinion as an invitation to trade real money. Am I to understand that you target 50pips profit per trade, on a pair that can fluctuate by several hundred pips per day, and you have almost unlimited risk ...

100% Sure Win but only in trending n ranging.

"forget statistics in forex" I see your point, however, when you say statistics, I presume you are referring to trading systems? These "statistics" are what most traders dwell on. They go from system to system, course to course, and never find a ...

Statistical analysis fallacy

If you had a system with a 1 pip stop which lost 95% of trades (which is quite likely), would you be able to reverse the system and expect to win 95% of trades? A losing system doesn't lose because it enters at the wrong time, it loses because it ...

Change a losing system into a Winning system

Just an update on the Big Sandwich, it has currently averge me 15-30% per month on average since inception. There have been a number of people modifying the system, and some even added to the rules to create their own system. One notable person has ...

Big Sandwich System

I have discontinued this journal as I have other more pressing time commitments. Please feel free to keep papertesting the system. In a year from now, I will backtest the system and compare it to my real results, but so far it is on track.

Big Sandwich System