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Back in March, I wrote about the pandemic-era savings glut and why it was premature to discuss an impending recession as long as it remained. But have no doubt, that massive $2.1-to-2.3 trillion build-up in consumer savings post-2020 is vanishing. ...
The oil price has taken a beating over the last year. Brent crude oil – used to set the price of about two-thirds of the world’s internationally traded oil supply – hit a cycle peak of $122 per barrel in June 2022. And is now $76. That’s a roughly ...
I may sound like a broken record here, but in this post-1980s global economy, credit drives everything. From assets and equities to growth and price pressures. There are two key reasons for this: 1. Real wages have essentially been flat for 40 ...
Over the last two years, inflation has been a big threat. And for good reason. Post-COVID, all three levers – fiscal, monetary, and supply-side – were aggressively pushing prices higher. Governments ran massive deficits and spending programs to ...
Over the last few months, the debt ceiling topic has dominated mainstream media. And for good reason. But let’s assume the debt ceiling’s going higher – even if it’s at the last second. Is that the end of all problems? Well, it is in the sense that ...
Longtime readers know that I’m rather agnostic when it comes to economics. Meaning I don’t cling solely to a certain school of thought – such as Austrian (more free markets), Monetarist (central bank liquidity focused), or Keynesian (large ...
There’s a sense of increasing fragility in global corporate debt markets. And for good reason. Because there’s a massive wall of corporate debt maturing over the next three years – with most held by companies near-or-already-at speculative credit ...
I’ve long believed that markets and economies trend towards disequilibrium (aka a loss of stability). And this is contrary to what we learned in economics – that a system tends towards equilibrium. And while equilibrium may sound good in theory; it ...
Many longtime readers know that I’ve remained bullish on U.S. bonds. Especially at the long end of the curve (the 5-year through 30-year). And I know many may be thinking – “bonds? Are you kidding? In this inflationary and tightening environment?” I ...
Back in August, I wrote about the deeply inverting U.S. yield curve and how it indicated deflation and slowing growth ahead (which is what we’ve seen). But – since then – I’ve seen media pundits shrug off any further downside. Or as it’s popularly ...
Back in the summer of 2022 – I wrote that I believed inflation had peaked and would come down for the rest of the year. That’s because when ignoring much of the noisy data, price pressures started rolling over in early June. Especially in oil and ...
Many longtime readers know that I believe the Hong Kong dollar peg is nearing a tipping point. I’ve written about this situation before (you can read here and here). But I believe things are growing far more fragile than many realize in the Hong ...
Many longtime readers know that I’ve been very critical of the housing market after the massive boom in real estate prices post-COVID. And as we learned from the underrated Austrian economist – Ludwig Von Mises – the bigger the boom; the bigger the ...
A few weeks ago – I wrote an article highlighting the four major global indicators that show more economic downside ahead. And since then – things have only grown more fragile as the Federal Reserve continues aggressively tightening. To put it into ...
Back in mid-June – I wrote an article highlighting both the savings glut and treasury imbalance issues that were grossly distorting the US banking system. To give you some context: I wrote about the vast sum (the nearly $600 billion back then) that ...
Back in mid-August – I wrote an article highlighting the growing fragility in the U.S. funding markets. And that – thanks to the gluttonous U.S. Treasury – a wave of financial tightening was around the corner. (Meaning – the dollar shortage was ...
Many long-time readers and speculators know I’m very bullish on gold and select gold miners. On the supply side – I’ve written about the ‘peak gold’ problem. (In summary – marginal gold miners have about mined all they can at the sub-$1,300 price. ...
Let’s get right to it. Early last month – I wrote an article highlighting the U.S. dollar shortage that’s plagued corporate China (leading to record defaults on dollar-debts). And that I believed it would soon spread into the already fragile Chinese ...
While the mainstream financial media focuses on the U.S.-China trade-war – macro-speculators are eyeing global yield curves – which are now signaling trouble. But according to this ‘adjusted’ U.S. yield curve – a recession may be coming much sooner ...
Since President Trump canceled the trade-deal with China earlier this month. And instead raised tariffs – global markets (and currencies) have plunged. Especially the Chinese yuan – which is now down nearly 3% against the U.S. dollar this month. ...