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Economic Tailwinds Fade: Excess Savings Depletion And Declining Lending Raises Concerns
Back in March, I wrote about the pandemic-era savings glut and why it was premature to discuss an impending recession as long as it remained. But have no doubt, that massive $2.1-to-2.3 trillion build-up in consumer savings post-2020 is vanishing. And it’s nearly gone at this point. This excess was a huge tailwind for growth – as consumers splurged with their built-up government handouts and pent-up savings. But it couldn’t last forever. Or put simply, it was on borrowed time. And even if it reverts to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels, that’s still a considerable decline in consumption as consumers must stop ... (full story)