No, the market is fully random, but not always, thats the key point to understand, i can full random numbers and simulate ticks with it but it wont resemble the market always.Ok 1-2 candles time to time may always be random, but if we search for the ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Hunted? Why, they will love me, since i wont put my money under my pillow, but i will store it in a bank deposit so they dont lose liquidity, and it helps them to lend more money away and that will increase their profit too. Glad that i live in the ...

There is no Holy Grail

Well its the same right, do a forward test on a demo account, and you do the same calculations after you have a decent sample size. Not that you could draw any conclusions from 2-3 trades, but make like 5000 trades on a demo forward test and after ...

How big of a sample size is needed?

The leverage problem is easy to solve, by putting yourself to 1:1 leverage, there is no point to borrow money from your broker if you have that much in your account. By the time you run into liquidity problems you already could theoretically make ...

There is no Holy Grail

I do, but a mental exercise is always good to find the path in trading.Besides you may think the numbers are absurd but the funny thing is that this can be done if you only have a little bit of edge.The hard part actually is not to make 1 billion ...

There is no Holy Grail

I`m neither a mathematician and i`m not predicting nothing, i pretty much believe the market is unpredictable or atleast it requires very high effort to do it, and i`m not really into it at the moment.What i do is i only analyze historical data. I ...

The Smoke and Mirrors of the Risk/Reward Ratio

Nice post, i dont know why people say you cannot start with a small account.When infact you should start only with a small account because the first time it might not work out as well.So might it blow up a few accounts before learning the lesson, ...

There is no Holy Grail

I agree, this is not fully random because PipMeUp used previous data to compile the charts, so its more pseudo-random.Although i`m not sure how he picked the ticks, but even if he picked it fully random, if the market itself is not fully random, ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I dont know, you can search the threads i`m sure there are many threads talking about backtesting and system evaluation. Also i note i edited the last post, for idk what reason the formulas were not shown propertly , now i fixed it so good luck ...

How big of a sample size is needed?

Yes but if you trade a mechanical system, your entry and exit will always be based on the same criteria, so you can look at the past profit and losses and average them and you have your average risk and reward values. Note, this only works for ...

The Smoke and Mirrors of the Risk/Reward Ratio

Depends on what type of test are you trying to do.I would suggest that first of all to calculate the expectancy of your system: reward=(sum of the profits of each winner trade) / total number of winner trades risk = (sum of the losses of each loser ...

How big of a sample size is needed?

reward=(sum of the profits of each winner trade) / total number of winner trades risk = (sum of the losses of each loser trade) / total number of loser trades winrate = total number of winner trades / total number of all trades *100

The Smoke and Mirrors of the Risk/Reward Ratio

Could be but the timeframes in MT4 are not aligned like that.That flip in MT4 would correspond to this: M1= 2 coin M5= 10 coin M15 = 30 coin M30 = 60 coin H1 = 120 coin So that being said it would look like this image It is almost like my ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

They do, if by doji you mean OPEN[n] =CLOSE[n], if you talk about doji-like bars like spinning top and others, then it probably it wont be that high impact since ranging periods often result in a spinning top in higher timeframe, but the doji is a ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Or it may be because the absorbtion of the doji-like candles.As you go higher timeframe, you merge a few neighbor candles into 1, thus all doji's will be absorbed into a normal candle sooner or later.Like i told you in the PM, the candlestick ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Yes, but the E/U is already a ranging market so dont expect more from it, if you look at the W1 TF you can clearly see those nice swings.So it is probably a 50-50 case, but do the same for AUD/JPY or CHF/JPY or GOLD and you will see that those ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Here is my proof of randomness with bias: image You can see 6 consecutive bullish candles, which have a probability of happening in a 50-50 market of: 1.5625% But look 8 consecutive bullish bars in a short period of time , also if we suppose that ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Well the most legit source of random numbers are radiation source or electric impulses in a chip. But i found many articles on the net where you can generate random numbers on your own, for example if you have a microphone you can let it record your ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Random, i would say half random, or random with a bias (due to economic stuff: interest rates,interbank rates,gdp,cpi,salaries,etc) which alternate themselves. So it may have a default 50-50 setup but as soon as an economic turmoil in the US or in ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Wow looks like you have a formula to describe the market, that would atleast be worth a Nobel Prize in economics, good job I dont know if a market follows a gaussian distribution.I just simulated the normal distributions of the close ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?