I'm not technically searching text book morabozu but candles with no wick longer than 7 pips at the side of the open. Because this was the losing scenario. When you look at a chart it's not obvious at all that a doji is the most probable candle. Yet ...

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

Target hit. But I don't know if the 3900 RN helped or not.

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

Correct. And also that if yesterday was a marubozu, today can be a marubozu too with the same proba. of 24.19%. Not smaller.

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

E/U opened, went up 20 pips and returned to the entry price. What is the probability it reaches 10 pips TP before 40 pips SL? If the pips movements are independent and identically distributed, 80%. If you find more in your historical data you have ...

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

Hanover is talking about conditional probability. What is the probability of seeing two consecutive morabozus? What is the probability of seeing a morabozu given that the day before was already a morabozu? The probability of a morabozu is 929 chance ...

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

I always either prove my points or I clearly write in my posts that I don't know. Can you yourself prove such a bold statement?

Does the martingale system really work?

I'm open let's do ;-) The original marty doubles the bet after each loss. So the losses accumulate as 1+2+4+8+16+32+..+2^k. This is exponential, O(2^k). No way to survive. Not even short term. The grid martingale adds to the losers every X pips. The ...

Does the martingale system really work?

To me the mistake is that you went short whereas the monthly trend is UP. The weekly trend is UP. The daily trend is up. H4 closed above the five previous highs after a nice pullback. Your entry trick is quite good but it's not a system in itself.

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

If you get a losing streak you have to recover this DD. During this recovery period you don't want to take additional losses that increase the DD. So it's a good idea to size the trades such that a winner always covers a loser. You have more winners ...

How to position size to maximize return over capital?

The idea was to wait and see if the price goes 10-20pips below the open, then set a stop buy order at the open price with 40 pips SL. After this move the price MAY have formed its lower wick and therefore be an up day. The issue is that it keeps ...

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

Something else you might be interested in: if tomorrow is a bullish day, the low will form first with a high probability. It is quite rare that, for an up day, the price opens, goes to the high then to the low then to the close, crossing three times ...

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

I understand the idea better now. Here is an excel file where I plot the length of the wick at the open side of the candle. Data are from E/U daily. The distribution is exponentially fading to zero (black line). - Actually the zero length is THE ...

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

This is a heatmap made of the output of a Goertzel filter bank. The lighter the stronger. The longer periods are at the top. The bottom is the 2 period cycle (Nyquist). The red line tracks the strongest output. The blue line is the result of my ...

Cycle measurement: the easy way

You didn't search a lot! What is supposed to be new? This kind of novel idea pops up every two month in FF. Your MM is nothing else than a martingale, invented in the 18th century. The stopped martingale variante, that is withdrawing half of the ...

How can I get 99% of profit trades? this is my idea...

I can't see cycles in the volatility except for the very long term variation. In the picture below (CAD/JPY Daily) I show the variance of the price (close) in black and the variance of the return in blue. The variance of the return changes in ...

Cycle measurement: the easy way

[quote=Jack168;7378651] Do you use a bank of Goertzel filters, one for each frequency you're interested in? How do you merge their outputs to get the final results?

Cycle measurement: the easy way

Thanks for posting this excel. This is the reason why I use a bandpass filter: it removes the trend and the mean price at the same time. I prefer this method because the differentiation (taking the return is a first difference) trasforms the trend ...

Cycle measurement: the easy way

I really like the result you get Jack. --and it is better than the commercial version under it-- Your output is much smoother than what I get. Yet the lag is kept under control. Would you mind elaborating on the algorithm you use? With ...

Cycle measurement: the easy way

This is exactly what I'm talking about except I'm not doing it to generate signals but to remove (substact) the most important cycle to "flatten" the PA. If you're interested in the signal generation you may read the thread Optimized Trend Trading. ...

Cycle measurement: the easy way

Nothing here is about opening a single trade. Nothing here is about predicted anything about what may or may not happen after the current bar. Nothing here is about spotting any repeatable pattern.

Cycle measurement: the easy way