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      Fed's Hammack: Reasonable to take a wait and see approach
      Submitted May 9, 2025      |From @PiQSuite

      EXCLUSIVE-FED'S HAMMACK: REASONABLE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH READY TO MOVE ON RATES WHEN THERE IS CLEAR AND CONVINCING EVIDENCE NOT A LOT OF DATA BY FED'S JUNE MEETING LIKE TO BE PREEMPTIVE, ACTION ORIENTED WHEN WE CAN, HARD TO DO GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER TARIFF AND…

      Anchors Away? Maybe Not
      Submitted May 9, 2025      |From economics.bmo.com

      Chair Powell says it at almost every post-FOMC press conference: inflation expectations are well-anchored. But, is that still true? The answer is key to understanding the evolution of future inflation, the timing of the Fed’s next rate cut, and how ...

      Analysts See Gold & Silver Gaining in 2026
      Submitted May 9, 2025      |From etftrends.com

      Analysts revised their projection for gold in 2026. They cited a $300 increase from the previous price projection. As seen in the S&P GSCI Gold and Silver indexes, both metals have been rallying the past year. Gold maintains pole position over its ...

      Waller: Thank You, John
      Submitted May 9, 2025      |From federalreserve.gov|1 comment

      Thank you, Volker, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 John Taylor is deservedly well known for his work on monetary policy rules, the best known of which bear his name. But in the early 1980s, John was part of a broader discussion about rules versus discretion in the setting of monetary policy. The traditional argument for discretionary monetary policy was that any policy choice that a rule would recommend could be replicated by discretion, especially when policymakers are aware of the rule, but not vice versa. Discretion allowed more flexibility than a rule and thus was the dominant strategy for setting monetary policy. Then, in 1977, Finn Kydland and Ed Prescott published their paper "Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," which argued that policy promises made today may not be carried out in the future if there are advantages to reneging on those promises.2 Reneging on promises made by discretionary policymakers, they argued, is much easier than reneging on a policy rule, which is a way to commit to future actions. Kydland and Prescott provided a simple and appealing model at the end of their paper. The model had an incentive for the central bank to renege on its promise to keep inflation low, since doing so would expand the economy and lower unemployment. If rational agents knew of this incentive, they would not find the promise of low inflation credible and would therefore raise their expectations for future inflation. The central bank would then have to validate those expectations with higher inflation to avoid a recession. In the end, the economy ends up in a high-inflation equilibrium with no gains from higher output or lower unemployment. Fed's Waller does not comment on economic outlook or monetary policy in remarks prepared for delivery at the Economics Conference.

      Cdn. Jobs: Voting for More...Rate Cuts
      Submitted May 9, 2025      |From economics.bmo.com

      Canadian employment rose 7,400 in April, following a 32,600 drop the prior month, not far from our expectation of flat. The reading on jobs came right in the heart of the tariff chaos and just days before the Canadian federal election, both of which ...