Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time

From federalreserve.gov

Economic researchers and forecasters face the difficult task of differentiating the effects of tariffs on consumer prices from the effects of other factors—such as inflation expectations, supply chain disruptions, labor market tightness, and energy prices—which may influence prices independently. The methods available for this task in the economics literature, however, are not suitable for assessing tariffs' effects on consumer prices in real time. Most studies in the literature analyze effects on goods prices at the port of entry (import prices) and, in some cases, on domestic producer prices. The few studies ... (full story)