Gearing Up For A Rate Cut | Metals Mine

  • Gearing Up For A Rate Cut

    From blogs.uoregon.edu

    The Fed will cut rates 25bp next week and leave the door open for more. It is reasonable to argue that they need to cut 50bp. If that’s what they should do but won’t, adjust your forecasts down accordingly. Key Data The employment report for August 2019 revealed a slowing albeit arguably solid labor market in the U.S.Nonfarm payrolls grew by a somewhat softer than expected 130k, but that number was inflated by the addition of 25k temporary Census workers. Both June and July experienced modest downward revisions. Including Census workers, job gains are running at a 156k average monthly pace over the past three ... (full story)

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EF5
Sep 8, 2019 8:25pm
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“The second derivative here is not our friend.“

Spoken like a true economist. I sure don’t miss differentiating equations back in my Econ classes.

The case for a recession is getting strong. If labor is weakening now I don’t think the Fed can stop a recession from coming. While that isn’t good, recessions are a natural part of the economy and I look forward to the opportunities this will bring.
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