The Anatomy of the Coming Recession

The shock that triggers the recession will not be seen coming, it will be a bolt out of the blue. Looking back into history which is the first place you should look for cycles you will see the there was a muslim/arab conflict 90 years ago a very significant time period when looking for cycles.
The 90 year cycle hits in September and this is also interesting as it occurs around the same date as America was attacked in 2011.
Will we see a repeat attack on the US in September? Its more than possible given the historical cycle occuring at the same time. If you look back one year into 2018 you will see that the markets topped out and suffered one of the worst periods since the last crash. Human nature does not change and we will keep repeating our previous mistakes. We can change the out come but we have to do something different.

The Titanic sank because it hit an iceberg, that's the story we all know, What most people are unaware of is the previously there had been a fire on the Titanic which had heated the exact section that collided with the iceberg. The fire had caused the metal to become brittle, that coupled with the cold had weakened the metal in that area.

Blair left the Titanic on 9th April 1912, and along with him, he took the keys to the crow's nest locker. Most probably an accident, but it is believed to be the reason why there were no binoculars available with the crew during the journey.

The Titanic was doomed when she set sail, just like the markets. If you look in the right areas you will see the cracks in the market. When you want to point the finger at someone for the crash, look at your elected leaders, Trump will keep pumping money into the stock market because his pride won't let him stop. When he runs out of dollars and it collapses he will have no bullets left. The banks want to raise rates because they are greedy, they don't make huge profits when rates are low.

Higher oil will lead to higher demand in shale, which is better for the US economy. With that said, I agree that higher oil prices are net negative for the US economy, especially during slowdowns. Remember 2008? The high oil prices exacerbated the crisis. It also sparked the US energy sector to start producing and put mechanisms in place to lower the dependence on foreign oil, as well as keep oil prices capped by fracking. Texas and North Dakota have boomed since because of shale.

Good article, but I question the assumption that higher oil is bad for the economy. That’s historically been true, but with shale now it might actually be a positive. If it does cause a recession, it might work like this:

Higher oil > higher inflation > higher bond yields > higher saving / lower investment > lower spending

Also, higher oil acts directly like a tax so there’s less spending from that too.

In either case, one person’s spending is another person’s income so that implies negative growth.

Reading comprehension skills; A good tool. This article is good.

Why isolate China for spying toasters? 5G is alive already in USA isn't it? So watch out for US Micro waves. These gaps in logic taint the whole message mate and underline the xenophobia which is the central issue. USA is not the greatest country - it is just a country.