Recession Watch (or Distant Early Warning?)

From schwab.com

The National Weather Service offices issue storm Watches, Advisories, and Warnings. Normally, a storm Watch is issued well in advance of the storm; indicating the risk of a hazardous event has increased (at least a 50% chance of it occurring). As the event becomes imminent, a Watch will normally be upgraded to either an Advisory or a Warning (indicating an 80% or greater probability of occurrence). An Advisory indicates conditions pose a significant inconvenience; while a Warning indicates that conditions pose a severe threat. It’s been nearly a dozen years—September 2007—since I wrote my last “Recession ... (full story)