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Sahm Unemployment Index and Gold
What is the difference between a recession and a depression? When your neighbor loses their job, it's a recession. When you lose your job, that's a depression! But let's put the dry economic and not funny jokes aside. How to spot recession, without asking your neighbors about their situation at work? As we wrote in the March 2019 edition of the Market Overview, the two most reliable recessionary indicators are the yield curve and the unemployment rate (eventually, you may have to talk with your neighbors after all!). However, these are also not perfect. Many economists claim that the yield curve has lost some of its ... (full story)