Gold - Should bulls be worried? | Metals Mine

  • Gold - Should bulls be worried?

    From marketpulse.com

    Gold bulls face first test We’re seeing some more profit taking in gold on Tuesday, with the rebound in the dollar and stronger risk appetite likely contributing to the declines. Gold failed to break above $1,350 on this occasion, or hold above the February high, but that doesn't necessarily mean the rally has run its course. Price has now fallen back towards $1,320 which could be an interesting test, having previously been a notable area of resistance. A rotation off here could see last week's highs coming under pressure again. A break below here wouldn't be particularly concerning though, as the rally that ... (full story)

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EF5
Jun 11, 2019 10:33pm
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Quoting tush1822
In the Fed statement Powell already made it clear that he dont want to market to adopt blanket assumption when there are signs of recessions FOMC will reduce rates, rather he stress to use other easing tools.
That’s a good point, QE will probably come earlier than most expect. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed tries some sort of yield curve control like the BoJ has done.
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Goat
Jun 12, 2019 2:50am
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Quoting tush1822
rather he stress to use other easing tools.
I'm with the QE thesis at the moment. If the Fed lowers rates it would be an about-face, but spraying some QE is only a 150 degree turn.
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EF5
Jun 11, 2019 1:31pm
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What if the Fed doesn't cut? Goldman stated yesterday that they're not expecting a cut. Seems like gold could plummet if they're right.
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perma-bull
Jun 11, 2019 11:00am
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momentum indicators won't matter if the us decides to hike tariffs to china, or ends up inking the deal with mexico
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bigtx
Jun 11, 2019 11:00am
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Not on my time horizon.
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EventsTrader
Jun 12, 2019 12:19pm — Edited
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Quoting tush1822
In the Fed statement Powell already made it clear that he dont want to market to adopt blanket assumption when there are signs of recessions FOMC will reduce rates, rather he stress to use other easing tools.
The Fed minutes remains neutral. They haven't issued guidance other than rates could go in either direction. I'm surprised by how the market is by pricing in three or four rate cuts by April of next year, versus how neutral the Fed is.

The Fed is letting the markets figure it out so when they announce any rate cuts there aren't any shocks. That's my best guess at it. Any thoughts?
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tush1822
Jun 11, 2019 4:06pm
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In the Fed statement Powell already made it clear that he dont want to market to adopt blanket assumption when there are signs of recessions FOMC will reduce rates, rather he stress to use other easing tools.
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tush1822
Jun 12, 2019 8:47am
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Quoting tush1822
In the Fed statement Powell already made it clear that he dont want to market to adopt blanket assumption when there are signs of recessions FOMC will reduce rates, rather he stress to use other easing tools.
Another thought is , despite rate cut chances are less, we cannot discount the global economic weakness and damage done since the trade war!! Need to be bullish on the gold once this light bear shock is recovered.
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tush1822
Jun 12, 2019 2:47pm
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Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} The Fed minutes remains neutral. They haven't issued guidance other than rates could go in either direction. I'm surprised by how the market is by pricing in three or four rate cuts by April of next year, versus how neutral the Fed is. The Fed is letting the markets figure it out so when they announce any rate cuts there aren't any shocks. That's my best guess at it. Any thoughts?
Though it is important what FOMC is upto but as a trader dont do more analysis.

Market is always looking for catalyst wheather is bad or good. In current situation, FOMC rate cut rhetoric is a catalyst which is valid till FOMC states clearly.

If you are experienced trader you know what I am trying to say, If you are new focus more on price action!!
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bulltrap
Jun 11, 2019 11:42am
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Quoting swagtrading
I think worry depends on the time horizon of the trader. Short term (max 1 week) I see some more downside, but on a longer horizon (1 month +), I see higher prices for Gold and also Silver.
Agree, but I think even if your horizon is 1 week or a few days you could be fine. It is more the intraday guys that need to watch out. We probably have to see how things settle tonight into tomorrow morning to look past profit taking before jumping to any conclusions.
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SurfsUp
Jun 12, 2019 2:27pm
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Quoting EventsTrader
{quote}I'm a little surprised by how one sided the market is by pricing in three maybe four rate cuts in the next year, versus how neutral the Fed is.
I agree ET. I don't get it either. Not seeing the economic factors that would lead to such an aggressive move. Perhaps the political factors of shutting up Trump are at play - as he throws some intense shade. However, I hope Fed doesn't let the tail wag the dog!
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swagtrading
Jun 11, 2019 11:28am
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I think worry depends on the time horizon of the trader. Short term (max 1 week) I see some more downside, but on a longer horizon (1 month +), I see higher prices for Gold and also Silver.
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