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Monetary Policy’s Odd Odyssey
This is an unusual time for markets, with a reasonable debate for both sides on whether the next move by central banks will be to hike or cut interest rates. Certainly, markets are leaning to at least one hike by the Fed and perhaps half of one by the Bank of Canada by the end of 2026, but there’s not much conviction. All it would take to wash away those hawkish views could be a serious crack in energy prices, and/or the equity market. On the flip side, of course, is that all it would take to ratify those views would be a renewed ratcheting up in fuel costs, perhaps alongside ongoing strength in equity markets. ... (full story)
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Markets are pricing in at least one more interest-rate increase from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year following hotter inflation data and a more hawkish tone from policymakers. Consumer prices rose 3.5% in the year through June, less than markets expected and a slowdown from 4.2% in May, which was the highest annual increase in three years. Meanwhile, new ...
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