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Why the US-Iran peace deal remains the key market risk factor for the rest of the year
While Americans celebrate falling oil prices, the tenuous US-Iran peace agreement in the Persian Gulf remains the single largest risk for markets in the second half of the year, according to Oxford Economics chief global economist Ryan Sweet. Since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war and, in theory, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have plunged by more than 20%, and equities have rallied. Futures on international benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) now trade near $72 per barrel, while those on US WTI crude (CL=F) trade below $69 a barrel. Those prices have put renewed vigor into ... (full story)
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Vancarbon
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From robinjbrooks.substack.com | 3 hr ago
The dominant narrative since both sides signed the Memorandum of Understanding on June 17 is that Iran won the war. That narrative is profoundly wrong and is often pushed by the same crowd that told us - over and over - that oil would go to $200. The truth is that Irans regime desperately needs peace and you dont have to be a rocket scientist to figure ...
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