Two securities firms have published diverging but broadly cautious assessments of the Federal Reserve's policy path following the June meeting, with one placing near-even odds on a December rate hike and the other holding a no-move call for 2026 while flagging rising hike risk into next year. Both analyses centre on the same set of facts. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected. Chair Kevin Warsh significantly simplified the post-meeting statement, removing forward guidance entirely and signalling that markets should price policy on incoming data rather than Fed projections. Five task ... (full story)