Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50% | Metals Mine

  • Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50%

    From investinglive.com

    Two securities firms have published diverging but broadly cautious assessments of the Federal Reserve's policy path following the June meeting, with one placing near-even odds on a December rate hike and the other holding a no-move call for 2026 while flagging rising hike risk into next year. Both analyses centre on the same set of facts. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected. Chair Kevin Warsh significantly simplified the post-meeting statement, removing forward guidance entirely and signalling that markets should price policy on incoming data rather than Fed projections. Five task ... (full story)

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ffghost
3 hr ago
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Huh? I don't think these guys know how to read the fed fund futures....December is a 100% hike. Whether it is a 25 (to 375-400) or 50 bps (to 400-425) hike is the 50/50.

Obviously, "analysts" can have varied opinions, that's what makes a market, BUT, futures are suggesting there is currently no confusion about whether a hike is coming.

/ZB is doing some interesting things after hours though. Hence the equities rallying despite the roll off post-conference call. So much for that bearish pessimism having any staying power. Retained it for all of 2 hours.


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epickrush
3 hr ago
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hmmm
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goldfish3
3 hr ago
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range era is has commenced
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Trader#64CB
3 hr ago
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They say December is a hike, but December is very far from here. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on their faulty dot plot. These people don't know what rates should be now, let alone few months or years from now. Action is what matters, not talk. Talk is cheap.
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