U.S. May Retail Sales Report Was a Banger

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price inc *FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS The fed vote in favor of the policy was unanimous. FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE pic.twitter.com/LUGhyDzTRt Fed holds rates steady, pares down statement to remove cutting bias Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman concluded Wednesday with no change in interest rates, the removal of key language indicating a bias toward future cuts, and a dramatically shorter policy statement. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate anchored in a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The federal funds rate has held there since the central bank lowered rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the latter part of 2025. With a bevy intrigue over Warsh taking the central bank helm, the meeting followed the same pattern as the others this year regarding rates but differed otherwise. Fed officials, through their closely watched “dot plot” grid, removed their prior outlook for a rate cut this year and indicated that a hike is possible though not certain. However, the projections were missing the participation of one member, with Fed watchers suspecting that Warsh would not be submitting his outlook. A note attached to the projection materials indicated that 18 of the 19 meeting participants submitted rate and economic projections.

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 16–17, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability *FED: NINE OF 18 FOMC PARTICIPANTS PENCIL IN 2026 RATE HIKE Hawkish dots, and Warsh - as some speculated - did not even submit a dot pic.twitter.com/YKTDn97EgF THE UPDATED DOT PLOT IMPLIES ONE 25-BASIS-POINT RATE HIKE IN 2026, FOLLOWED BY 25-BASIS-POINT RATE CUTS IN BOTH 2027 AND 2028, WHILE GDP GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW MODESTLY TO 2.2% IN 2026 AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS SEEN AT 4.3%. Fed SEP: Growth Lower, Inflation Higher, Rates Higher for Longer