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Scotiabank Forecast: The Tale of Two Economies on Two Different Tracks
The Canadian economy hit a clear soft patch at the start of 2026, as confirmed by last week’s national accounts release. GDP was essentially flat in Q1, coming in below all expectations and pointing to softer underlying demand pressures. This aligns with earlier signals from the labour market, including weak hiring and a rise in unemployment at the start of the year. That said, the headline weakness should be interpreted with caution. The Q1 print was affected by several temporary factors that materially distort the signal. Large swings in gold imports should be largely ignored, as should the sharp pullback in ... (full story)