Why Is US Consumer Sentiment at Record Lows?

Trump: We have things understood now with Iran. *TRUMP: NEW GROUP OF IRAN LEADERS MORE REASONABLE

*TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE OPEN TO EVERYBODY *TRUMP: NOBODY IS GOING TO CONTROL HORMUZ, US WILL WATCH OVER IT *TRUMP: OMAN WILL BEHAVE OR WE'LL HAVE TO BLOW THEM UP Trump: At the right time, we'll release boats from the Strait TRUMP SAYS IRAN STARTING TO GIVE THINGS THEY HAVE TO GIVE US || TRUMP SAYS ON IRAN TIME FRAME: IT HAPPENS QUICKLY Trump: Not sure we should make the Iran deal if no Abraham Accords.

Thank you, Neale, for that kind introduction. Being back on Stanford's campus is always an honor and conjures up great memories. I spent several formative years here—first as a student in the AEA Summer Program, which prepares students to pursue graduate study in economics, and then as a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. To say that these stints at Stanford were transformative would be an understatement. The summer program prepared me for and set me on a new intellectual and career journey, and my three years here as a postdoc set out an entirely new line of research inquiry. In fact, I started my research on patents and innovation or the economics of innovation here and benefitted greatly from my interaction with economists here at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), the economics department, the business school, the law school, and Hoover, including Kenneth Arrow, Tim Bresnahan, Jeremy Bulow, Milton Friedman, Avner Grief, Mitch Polinsky, Paul Romer, and Gavin Wright. From my decade spent in the Bay Area—here and at Berkeley, I witnessed how seriously new ideas are taken, examined, implemented, and spread. It is always invigorating to return to such a center of innovation.1 I applaud SIEPR for holding this event to discuss artificial intelligence (AI) and its power to influence the trajectory of the economy and transform the financial system. I know many in this room are grappling with how to harness this technology's obvious multidimensional promise while being mindful of important risks. Having adopted machine learning in the AEA Summer Program in 2018 when I was director and having used it in my research before coming to the Fed, I arrived at the Board of Governors in 2022 raising questions about and urging the study and adoption of AI. So, rest assured, policymakers at the Federal Reserve are also deeply engaged. Today, I will start by offering my latest economic outlook, with a focus on implications of AI for both sides of our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Then, consistent with my long-standing support for responsible innovation, I will address the benefits AI could deliver for the financial system before addressing some of the risks and vulnerabilities the technology presents to financial stability. I will conclude by sharing how the Fed itself is embracing the power of AI to help ensure the financial system remains sound and resilient. FED'S COOK: INFLATION IS CLEARLY MOVING IN WRONG DIRECTION. RIGHT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO HOLD RATES STEADY FED'S COOK SAID THE FED IS PREPARED TO RAISE RATES IF DISINFLATION FAILS TO APPEAR, BUT WOULD ALSO BE READY TO CUT RATES IF THE LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES, WHILE WARNING THAT AI-DRIVEN JOB LOSSES COULD COME BEFORE FUTURE PRODUCTIVITY GAINS.