NZ Monetary Policy Statement - May 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee today voted to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. Annual consumers price inflation was 3.1 percent in the March quarter. The Middle East conflict is increasing near-term inflation and weakening economic activity. Inflation is expected to peak at 4.3 percent in the September quarter and to return to the 2 percent target mid-point in mid-2027. Currently, core inflation, wage growth, and medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with inflation returning to the 2-percent target mid-point over the medium term. The global economic backdrop remains uncertain. Supply chain disruptions, higher prices for petrochemicals, and a more fragmented global trading environment are impacting the outlook. Growth will vary across countries, reflecting differences in energy intensity, fiscal support, and exposure to AI investment. On balance, New Zealand’s trading partners are expected to see weaker growth and higher inflation. Domestically, business contacts and surveys indicate weaker confidence and spending. For some firms, rising costs are squeezing profit margins and curbing investment and hiring intentions. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, and the housing market remains weak. Economic conditions continue to differ across regions and sectors, with high commodity prices supporting incomes in regional New Zealand. The Monetary Policy Committee today voted to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%. • Prior to The Middle East conflict, New Zealand was showing signs of economic recovery. The conflict is increasing near-term inflation and weakening economic activity. • Inflation is… pic.twitter.com/RpKTLT9RHC RBNZ vote was 3-3 to hold with the chair voting to keep policy steady. Market was only 17% priced for a hike today. RBNZ SAYS INTEREST RATES MAY NEED TO INCREASE EARLIER AND MOVE HIGHER THAN OUTLINED IN THE FEBRUARY POLICY OUTLOOK. ... RBNZ Minutes revealed member Carl Hansen argued for an immediate rate hike to preserve flexibility for additional tightening in July.

We are pleased to welcome all of you, distinguished speakers and guests, to the 2026 BOJIMES Conference. Thank you very much for your participation. The theme of this year’s conference is "Monetary Policy from New Perspectives." I am sure that supply shocks loom large in everyone’s mind. They are not a new phenomenon but at least have become more frequent. Whether a new perspective is truly needed, I leave it for debate — but revisiting past experience is, I think, an indispensable starting point. I do not have a new perspective to offer at this point. Instead, let me go through Japan’s experience with major energy shocks during the last five decades and offer some food for discussion. Since the 1970s, the global economy has been hit by significant spikes in energy prices, especially oil prices, as shown in Chart 1. There are five notable incidents: the first oil shock of 1973, the second oil shock of 1979, the oil price surge of the mid-2000s leading to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the recent conflict in the Middle East. However, the response of Japan’s consumer price index (CPI) to oil price Just in | BoJ Governor Ueda warns that elevated inflation expectations and increasing wages heighten the risk of second-round effects on the economy. Just in | BoJ Governor Ueda: A significant shock may remain temporary if transmission channels remain inactive. Just in | BoJ Governor Ueda: Japan's oil shocks highlight challenges to the broader inflation framework, beyond just oil prices.

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