US and Iran close to extending ceasefire by 60 days, say mediators

For the past 6 weeks every day or two has been a "we will get our solution...or else" out of Trump. By now, you'd think the markets would just accept reality: Trump isn't going to re-initiate an unpopular war and risk lowering his popularity numbers even further.

Since March 31, every single time a ceasefire extension/threat reduction has been communicated, the market flies. Every time a new threat is introduced, the market retraces only slightly (0.5-1%) and then rallies 2-4%. So much money can be/could have been made just following that logic: buy the dippers have been printing $$.

That said, the market really needs to get it's act together and recognize that the exact reasoning above is going to lead to a much longer "ceasefire" timeframe in which oil will stay high and, thus, inflation will be increased/extended.

Don't get me wrong, this is very akin to the tariff "inflation fears" from 2025....inflation that never really came...BUT, one would suggest energy inflation SHOULD be greater, and more persistent, than tariff inflation (remember 2022?).

However, markets are CLEARLY saying energy shock inflation won't be an issue. Rate hikes are now priced in as early as 2026.

So, if this stands, markets gap up and make new highs next week awaiting confirmation of a "deal" before it can unclench and address inflation. However, this will likely drag on through the SpaceX IPO, which will keep positive drift market anticipation at all time highs.

Hard to buy at all time highs (especially if currently short), but guess what: The same thing could have been said for the past 2%, 4%, 5%, 10%, 30%, 50% lower....until AI is derailed, or the money being tossed around is ultimately found to be non-existent, this thing has no choice but to go higher.....

Maybe reason why UAE reps also flew into Tehran out of desperation to ensure deal is sealed. Can imagine what's going on in Dubai atm.

It isn't really surprising that tourism has pretty much ceased in the gulf countries.

There are quite a few plays that have a non-zero probability of happening that could be worse than the Strait being closed for another 30-60 days.

The Straight of Hormuz closed down for business permanently.

The Iranian regime actually has a nuclear bomb/s and will use it/them. Just recently the regime announced that "our crushing blows will bring you to ruin in places you cannot imagine".

Don't forget that these people are mentally unstable. And then there are the Iranians.

Anyway, that's two possibilities.

Yea, best route this whole time has been to bomb Iran till they cant even tweet.

same thought

Lol which is why they should be bombed again. They have no cards to play, cant fight, they should be bombed till they cant even tweet about it.

Did you remember to post this on all news sites with comment sections?
- to quality for your hasbara low IQ propaganda check?

In his dream

Gold bearish for sure.

Wow