Kevin Warsh has been officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve | Metals Mine

  • Kevin Warsh has been officially sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve

Added at 11:15am

Added at 11:16am

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gaucho0o
May 22, 2026 11:12am
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so he's the new asshole who's going to ruin our trades.
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ffghost
May 22, 2026 11:16am
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If that's your thought, just place the reverse trade of every trade you thing should work........then you'll be fine.
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FlyingTurtle
May 22, 2026 11:30am
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Trading is like taking a test in school, only instead of picking the correct answer, your job is to pick the answer the dumbest kid in the class will pick
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ffghost
May 22, 2026 11:56am
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Which, ironically, is HARDER than just picking the correct answer in most cases

"smart kid" would say: "97.8% chance of a hike in December, 2026 is now priced in, /cl at 97, massive inflation risk ahead...markets should be going down". Dumb kid rolls a die and makes a trade based on the number that is facing up.

.......and probably makes more money than the smart kid while doing so

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FlyingTurtle
May 22, 2026 1:48pm
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2024 was a great example. At the beginning of the year about 4-6 cuts were expected (according to the dots) and the USD sold off. Then throughout the year at various times they started that "higher for longer" nonsense when it was plainly obvious, at least to me, that they would be cutting at least 4 times. Each time they'd start chanting higher for longer the dummies ran in and bid up the USD, leaving me perplexed how they could be so stupid. That's when I decided it's not about predicting what will happen; it's about gauging what idiots think will happen. Knowing for 100% certain what the fed will do over the next year is completely worthless info and will probably cost you tons of money.

I was proven right in the end, but didn't get to make much money. If I'd been a little less smart I'd done much better.
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Trader#6A0F
May 22, 2026 11:31am
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get better at trading
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ffghost
May 22, 2026 11:15am — Edited
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VIX print (16.55) is lowest since the war began. Oil still above 97. This market has moved on.

Next chapter = rate cuts/hikes & FOMC watch? (at least until Trump lets us know he invading/blockading Cuba)

.......and it is for these reasons that I think many are secretly looking for this to be the near term top; things are too apathetic.

If a hike is 98% priced in by December, 2026, wouldn't conventional wisdom suggest markets would be feeling some pain? But, nope. So, similar to the feeling from the end of April, the markets have thrown all concerns out the window and are banking on massive corporate growth to solve this problem. That happens in 2 instances: 1) when it works, and economies run really strong and 2) during huge bubbles.

For now, as was the case in late April, it seem the market is saying "up, up, UP".

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Update: anyone kind of surprised that Trump didn't take the mic and answer questions on the way out despite reporters asking him? I guess that was laudable by Trump to give Warsh his moment.
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Trader#F2A7
May 22, 2026 11:53am
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First moral Fed chair in a long time. He'll say a bunch of neutral things for the media, but in reality he'll drop rates and do what's best for the economy instead of the democrat party.
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Trader#5418
May 22, 2026 1:48pm
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imagine being this dumb
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