Trump: I have no doubt Iran will capitulate soon

After a week off due to the Beijing visit, we are back to the status quo. Nothing has changed

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Trader#98B1

May 16, 2026 4:42am

I was literally on the floor when I saw this...

Almost went unconscious from laughing!

Trader#C559

May 16, 2026 7:29am

Boohoo

marabaratr

May 16, 2026 5:53pm

PLEASE not today

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May 15, 2026 6:29pm

IMO, markets are now looking at this.....remember 2 months ago when a cut (or even TWO) was coming before the end of 2026? My how far we have come....

Yes, you are seeing that right....2 HIKES now "expected" by June, 2027.

Of course, the markets are probably over extrapolating and reacting to the bonds tanking today...or are they? Time will tell. Trump sure won't like this change. So keep an eye on rhetoric and how that changes the rate cut odds.

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Trader#98B1

May 16, 2026 12:27am

The Fed cannot hike rates anymore. 10Y has gone 13bps in a day!

To avoid banking bust and bust in general, the Fed has no choice but to start another QE soon. Very soon folks, despite inflation.

FlyingTurtle

May 16, 2026 5:34am

I don't know...

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Eren10

May 16, 2026 5:39am

Probably this is why they are hunting for countries with oil.

May 16, 2026 9:12am

While GPD has been growing as well, sadly, there's likely no real chart of "GDP vs Interest" that looks much better.

Tariffs would have solved everything, but the SCOTUS and Democrats just wouldn't allow America to become great again. So, it's certainly their fault. (*massive sarcasm here*)

GDP has doubled since around 2012, but the interest on the debt has gone up more. If the AI revenue comes through, GDP could see another period of explosion, helping close the gap over the next few years...but that's a big IF (and is likely reliant upon the government curbing spending....as if that's going to happen)

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FlyingTurtle

May 16, 2026 9:42am

We just need to count more in GDP then: illegal drug sales, prostitution, gambling, political bribes. A little creative thinking will flatten that curve right out

If tariffs would decrease imports then it should help GDP since imports are subtracted. Maybe we can tax our way to prosperity after all lol

Polimini

May 17, 2026 2:25am

Not me of course, but people that don't like MAGA because they are jealous, could say that it's easier to grow GDP if you just accumulate debt. If you start addressing it GDP will tank.

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May 15, 2026 9:07pm — Edited

If rates pop again Monday, if oil keeps rising, if there's no good news from Iran, then....dare I say it....we could get a red weekly candle for all US stocks. Classic shooting star in the /ES weeklies now. My wish upon a shooting star is a dip below 7,100. Totally doable. Trump will be shooting truthtweets out his bumhole to stop it.....or will he? Everybody likes a good pullback.

May 15, 2026 9:40pm

Lies. Blasphemy. Heresy! The color "red" was banned from use on charts, fool, you KNOW this

NVDA earnings are going to wreck havoc with your theory (and my bearish positioning).....or at least REALLY test our conviction. That one earnings report could rip the /NQ 500 pts in 5 minutes. Whether it has staying power depends on the surrounding narrative. Obviously, NVDA is going to beat. Every tech company has, and NVDA is at the center of it all. Another day or two of pullback ahead of earnings opens the door for the flood of capital that has been exiting the system over the past 18 hours to come straight back in.

Strap in for a wild week! +/-785 pts /nq, 131 /es according to options....I think that is a bit light.

May 15, 2026 10:33pm

Comanche baby

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May 15, 2026 10:41pm

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May 15, 2026 10:44pm

stairs up, elevator down....used to be true....but if some downside momo takes hold to start the week, we should see >200 range for SPX, easy

Trader#5EC0

May 16, 2026 12:28am

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TehAyatollah

May 15, 2026 10:46pm

I see that likely. Better yet, I think Trump will intentionally give us a red week. He is going to pour able Putin’s visit to Beijing next week. Keep eye out for the disparity in reception by Xi

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Vancarbon

May 15, 2026 5:36pm

Rewind : Repeat : Replay

Medication please , double the dose .

May 15, 2026 6:06pm

Bonds are "getting yippee" again. (recall that language from early April 2025, just before the tariff pause).

Trump has shown an affinity for some "backstop" option when they get to these levels. Keep an eye on what is available this weekend. I can't imagine that is caving on the Iran situation and taking a deal that is less than desirable, BUT, the impact of the strait closure will compound daily....so something will resolve "soon".

Trader#53D9

May 15, 2026 8:57pm

Can you tell me what might happen: what are the available options this weekend?

May 16, 2026 9:04am

Not being coy, but "anything" could happen. There's little to do this weekend to manage assets (unless you trade something like crypto). For now, it is wait and see.

You can watch the BTC price on multiple sites.

IG's weekend tech reflects the sentiment for the /nq futures contract (nasdaq 100). It is usually a fair indicator of both sentiment and magnitude. However, the IG product was predicting a -0.4% gap open this past Sunday and the market only opened 0.1% down, fell another 0.2%, then rallied heavily....so don't take it as the "gospel truth"

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/market...us-tech-100-e1

There's also "weekend oil" to see if any new from Iran is driving the narrative:
https://www.ig.com/en/indices/market...oil---us-crude

Keep in mind, these are VERY illiquid markets, so don't rely upon them too heavily.

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FourxTwoxs

May 16, 2026 8:41am

Trump has an affinity for getting his tit caught in the wringer.

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DwnUndrTrdr

May 15, 2026 9:09pm

*TRUMP ON IRAN: DEALING W/ PEOPLE WHO ARE AFRAID TO MAKE A DEAL

Genius! I never knew Trump had a Doctoral degree in Psychology. I'll try it on little Johnny today, "Johnny, you are afraid to clean your room". You are a smart person, Sir!

Riziq-Cap

May 16, 2026 1:33am

The kidnapping game have started, this indicate a certainty that murikan war criminals have been captured in Iraq and now murika with its cheap and laughable propaganda media arms are spinning its kidnappings of resistance personal into some wild fantasy filled conspiracies...... This person was kidnapped in Turkey - but the allegations against him are laughable, straight out of kibbutz and I think its the point to make such outlandish claims to show their enemies that they can spin anything up and make it as wild as they want and their propaganda arms will spurn this and spread it as far as possible......

an Arab 32 year old, who barely speaks English, is accused of having a network inside an mental asylum in UK to find potential sick patients about to be released to subvert for operations, later, the same person who have never been to UK, set 3-4 ambulances on fire, later the same person who have never been to EU, did something in Belgium and the list goes on and on and on - instead of targeting the kibbutz in occupied Palestine, which we all are trying to liberate, the accused person is targeting none military civilian jews in Europe...... which re-enforces the need for the colony

similar accusations for operations in murika - the evidence? informants, undercover agents and a bunch of made up shit!
-- The guy do not even have visa to set foot in europe

and never been to either, let alone murika!

- even the dumbest person on earth can put this together and this is 2026, these silly fake charges do not work anymore.
-- No one associated with resistance factions will EVER attack yiddish in murika or EU, they will be attacked on our stolen land, because if Palestine is made unsafe, they will flee, if EU, US or other places are made unsafe???? they will flock to our lands in occupied Palestine - the only people that will attack places of worship or stab random yiddish in EU/US+ are false flag attackers and psyops which are conducted by the intelligence agencies in the west, like CIA/mozzad etc etc.

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Eren10

May 16, 2026 2:41am

Indeed that is how usa/israel propagabda works . They attack and say: “oo Iran(or another moslim) attacked, they are soo bad people”.

This how they can manipulate and mobilize western people.

Trader#C559

May 16, 2026 7:31am

You are both clowns

Trader#D70C

May 16, 2026 3:36pm

Thats right Riz, you cant touch us hahaha

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Riziq-Cap

May 16, 2026 11:27am

it makes no sense to attack synagogues in EU or murika, if anything, they can attack synagogues in Azerbaijjan, Turkey, Greece, if thats their intention, but the resistance have never done anything like that, they have targeted economic interests and military installations.... Better, they can attack synagogues in occupied Palestine, because technically its war condtions - however, it offers zero benefits attacking religious places....

Whats worst, the resistance is making it even more difficult by attacking synagogues FAAAAR away in places they have no connections or base, including offering no strategic benefits LOL!

Its such silly propaganda only the low IQ will parrot this or the hasbara trolls - both low IQs!

This kidnapping serve one purpose to exchange captured war criminals in Iraq, I am sure they had to pull many strings to extradite the man from Turkey, who was on transit btw, coming from Russia.

I will keep this case updated, because this is interesting....

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TableTop

May 16, 2026 4:19am

China turned down the plea to solve Trump's war problem. I've not seen it restated in any of the news coverage, but we can assume they stand by their 4-point peace plan (which doesn't involve gun-boat diplomacy). Trump is considering reducing or removing sanctions on Chinese companies buying Iranian oil (though I believe that this is already being ignored). Sounds like some back-channel negotiations are being managed by China, which seems like the most likely route to peace.

...then on to Cuba and Greenland.

riyazlantra

May 16, 2026 8:06pm

Eat!
Sleep

Rave!
Repeat!

EWtrader

May 15, 2026 10:07pm

he forgot to take his medication again?

Trader#FF48

May 16, 2026 6:26am

iranians are like southerners, they are a proud people. they would rather eat sand then submit to outside pressure surely not from america of all countries. but why do they keep coming to negotiate without agreeing to anything? if this is a tactic to buy some time aren't they the one suffering the most from continuing conflict? and time for what, for angels of god to wreck havoc on the besiegers?

Riziq-Cap

May 16, 2026 11:59am

They hold all the cards, an agreement through negotiations will cement their control, no agreement and this war like status, will isolate murika and crash its economy, possibly the world economy and we get a proper reset.

murika can choose to save whatever is left and come to an agreement or risk its economy and possibly the world economy and total shut-out from asia and africa by keeping this up.

According to sources, murika is presenting the same exact demands as they did before the war and they keep pushing the same demands after the war, while Iran keeps adding leverage - this blockade is a huge failure and its impossible keep it going over long time, maybe months, sure, but once you stretch over quarters, it becomes unsustainable, not to mention the world economy and energy poor regions.

Iran produces 85% of its food, almost 100% self-sufficient in industrialization due to sanctions and shares borders with a bunch of countries - its like blockading the east coast of murika but keeping the west coast and canadian border open, its a hassle, sure, but not a killer!

murika is making up strategy as they go, while Iran have planned this for over 20 years and considered all scenarios.

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sgmf

May 16, 2026 2:47pm

yee same like russia in 24h

CommanderFX

May 16, 2026 6:14pm

BTCUSD Is drop hard till 78k 15 Thursday when It launched 16 Friday it crashed

rf09

May 17, 2026 2:25am

then why u old rotten dickworm repeat it when you know that what you dont know meanwhile around the world we peoples watching iran fckd ur ass many times regularly it will be better to say u bark every sometimes afterwards so that iran listens the call of u and fcks u again really u enjoy being getting pissed in ur mouth again and again repeatedly, nice choice americans for choosing a clown as ur leader

Eddy001

May 17, 2026 12:45am

Not sure about that Mr president

Trader#4495

May 16, 2026 7:29am

900 billions out from the market in just 1 day and more will follow soon so don't worry.

Trader#5F7F

May 16, 2026 6:53pm