Fed's Kashkari: Inflation is too high

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Governing Council began by discussing the impact of the war in the Middle East on the global economy and inflation. The conflict had led to a sharp increase in global oil prices and heightened volatility in global energy and financial markets. Growth prospects had deteriorated for many countries, particularly those that are heavily reliant on oil and natural gas imports. Higher energy prices had boosted inflation in countries around the world. In the United States, growth was expected to remain solid in the first quarter. Households continued to spend despite higher gasoline prices, and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) remained strong. Members noted that the US labour market had been relatively stable, with few layoffs but weak hiring. Inflation had held steady at just under 3% in the period before the war started and had moved up further with the increase in gasoline prices. In China, in the near-term the economy appeared relatively insulated from the war in the Middle East. Robust exports continued to support growth, offsetting modest domestic demand. The economy in the euro area had been showing signs of resilience before the start of the war. But higher oil and natural gas prices and the potential for energy shortages were likely to weigh on growth. The global benchmark price of oil was volatile and above US$100 per barrel at the time of the April Monetary Policy Report. Consistent with the oil futures curve, members’ baseline assumption was that oil prices would decline in the coming quarters. They noted, however, that there was considerable uncertainty around this assumption due to the unpredictable path of the war. Several other commodity prices had risen in recent months, i AHEAD OF THE BANK OF CANADA'S APRIL 29 RATE DECISION, GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBERS CONCURRED THEY HAD ROOM TO REMAIN PATIENT FOR THE TIME BEING – MINUTES; GOVERNORS BELIEVED THE SITUATION COULD SHIFT RAPIDLY AND RATES MAY NEED TO RISE TO PROTECT AGAINST ENDURING INFLATION – MINUTES GOVERNORS BELIEVED THEY COULD OVERLOOK THE INITIAL INFLATION JOLT FROM HIGHER OIL PRICES – MINUTES; GOVERNORS ALSO RECOGNIZED THERE MIGHT BE LESS SURPLUS SUPPLY THAN ESTIMATED, AND THE OUTPUT GAP COULD NARROW QUICKER THAN PROJECTED – MINUTES