Trump weighs military action against Iran: Axios

This orange fuk has been talking utter BS since all this kicked off. Manipulating for his pals. Don't get me wrong, I am all for volatility but there comes a time where it's just boring what he says because it means absolutely nothing. "Maybe I bomb, maybe I won't bomb, and if I bomb, it will be the greatest bomb the world has ever seen..." Two hours later, "Very likely to reach an agreement" an hour later "we going to bomb them to the stone age" blah blah blah.

Koomecaleb

May 11, 2026 12:03pm

this is the most accurate reprasantation of what i feel you spoke for alot

May 11, 2026 1:30pm

Say hello to the new “ Banksy “

Well said Nuke

Trumpfacker

May 11, 2026 3:24pm

Very disgusting piece of shiet.why not have one stand like a man other than taking the world in circles

Trader#1A10

May 11, 2026 8:42pm

Just shut the fuck off. He is the best president of my lifetime and most people in the US.

May 11, 2026 9:33pm

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May 11, 2026 12:21pm

They’re not bending over and taking it as expected are they Donald .

Note to the US administration :

Have a sh*t or get off the pot .

It’s a Brit colloquial term

May 11, 2026 12:26pm

That colloquial phase was too long though: we shortened it to remove the first 2 words. Efficiency baby!

As for who is/isn't "winning" the negotiations, who can say. None of us (nor the media on either side) knows what is being said behind the scenes. Both sides want stuff. Both sides will get some of their stuff. Both sides will eventually say that they got exactly what they wanted...or that the other side had to give up a lot more than they wanted to...

I still say: with equity markets at highs, Trump can stall/do whatever he wants and still 'sell' the war as a win. If the markets turn and inflation enters the marketplace alongside the higher cost of energy.....THEN the Trump administration will have its hands tied.

For now, those that pay for the economy can afford to pay a little higher cost for everything after such a strong move in equities. Unless they have been attempting short this ridiculously overzealous run to all time highs which just won't friggin stop now matter how insane the global economic outlook appears to be................

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Jwosjw

May 11, 2026 12:02pm

I should have known once he said "I'm going to meet the generals" that it's going to be another BE hit. This is where we're at, in order to trade one needs to learn to study actions of a chomo instead of a chart. Perhaps, we should call it "Chomo price action", in honor of our great criminal administration. Some say, the best clique of criminals in history of administrations.

May 11, 2026 11:51am — Edited

Meh. If there was real concern about this, there'd be more than a 16 pt S&P roll off (50% of which was immediately bought).

If /cl at 100 isn't going to scare the markets, no Axios report is.

Assets were taken from the Gulf. Marine data tracking shows heightened shipping through the strait. This is a verbal "negotiation" attempt at getting one ore two more items in the upcoming, inevitable peace deal.

Markets keep making new highs regardless of what is said: Trump therefore has license to say whatever he wants.

...heck, even direct fire (drones to UAE, US Navy sinking Iranian ships) can't cause a blip in the rally. Nothing short of the realization that there's a big inflation shock coming is going to do it at this point.

If CPI comes out in line tomorrow, people will call it a "fake number", but the market will rally.

Even IF CPI comes out extremely hot tomorrow, the market could just as easily shrug it off as "well, that was expected regardless of the forecast, because of the war impact....but it will go down as soon as the strait reopens" (or some such logic).

FED rate cut odds are already all kinds of screwed up (hikes before cuts), and yet the markets STILL rally...........so, go figure.

***FWIW, I really, really, REALLY hope what I said above is incorrect and that the markets start to put some pressure on the administration before things (potentially) get well out of hand in the economy. This rally has been one of the most extended in history (based on velocity and lack of any intra-rally pullbacks). You might even say: "no one has ever seen anything like it". Before we get into the stratosphere and have to crash 10% in a week just to come down to "normal", I would like to see a pause or even 3-5% drawdown over a week or two until the MAs can catch up. Then we can get back to the COVID/post-tariff scare type rally.

May 11, 2026 9:35pm

How can the fed hike if it's doing QE?

May 11, 2026 10:04pm

I dunno, I guess QE would be "done"?

However it happens, the markets obviously know that Warsh is going to get confirmed tomorrow and are still pricing in hikes before cuts (see blue boxes for where markets believe rates will be at various dates)

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May 11, 2026 10:37pm

The market is often wrong and has little predictive value. For instance, it had 3 cuts priced in at the beginning of the year. Maybe the fed could buy long bonds and sell short bonds, but not sure that would accomplish anything.

They can't turn off liquidity spigots without breaking something and causing a global meltdown, so it's not obvious how they intend to tighten money. If they do find a way to tighten money then that will only drive prices higher until, again, something breaks.

The hawkish lean is predicated on employment data that everyone everywhere should know is very overinflated, so it's another fine example of how incredibly stupid markets can be. The revisions at the end of the year will once again show 1 million less jobs added than they thought, and all the "beats" throughout the year were totally made up.

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Karanjot

May 11, 2026 11:46am

One word for u f…k u , make your mind what u want to speak and think and do

SammyTdr

May 11, 2026 11:53am

whats the point of 10 different "high impact" tweets each and every single day? Didnt these creatures hold press conferences on occasional days for SERIOUS matters? this is next level sarcastic comedy at this point.....

May 11, 2026 12:12pm

To be fair, Trump talks, media reports it. He has been known to send out a few (sarcasm) actual tweets in a single day, but most of those are AI generated pictures of him as a savior/military hero when they aren't him bashing some news anchor.

If you want to "blame" someone for the content that moves markets, I guess you can look to the owners of the @...... twitter accounts. Trump is going to say stuff into any ear that will listen. It doesn't get to the market/your eyes unless those who possess the ears put it online somewhere.

I think the bigger issues that people (me?) have with Trump is his complete lack of "professionalism" when it comes to being President. There used to be (in my mind, but maybe never in reality?) some level of prestige and honor in that role. As if the person set aside his own ego for the good of the nation. Perhaps that is all just naive thinking though. Maybe the real reason it seems so bad with Trump is that he's the first person to actively use social media to express his internal thoughts, whereas other presidents would keep those comments to closed meetings?

SammyTdr

May 11, 2026 12:57pm

"I think the bigger issues that people (me?) have with Trump is his complete lack of "professionalism" when it comes to being President. There used to be (in my mind, but maybe never in reality?) some level of prestige and honor in that role. As if the person set aside his own ego for the good of the nation. Perhaps that is all just naive thinking though. Maybe the real reason it seems so bad with Trump is that he's the first person to actively use social media to express his internal thoughts, whereas other presidents would keep those comments to closed meetings?"

My sentiments exactly. Regardless of political views, the way he is saying things, or those '@' accounts are posting on his behalf, it entirely feels like a silly skit and that perhaps I'm dreaming, but unfortunately this all happening in real life. It is all hurting my trading and I'm a bit new at it, not really a seasoned/profitable trader. Every time an orange or a red marked tweet is posted, NQ goes violently in a direction hitting your SL

May 11, 2026 2:20pm

Yeah, SLs are NOT kind in environments like this. Unfortunately, when you are entering a market with the /nq at these elevated levels, even "small" news can be 100 pts, or $2000/contract in a matter of seconds.

I have no idea on your account size or risk tolerance, but if you aren't comfortable trading without SLs in the full /nq, shifting over to the /mnq would allow you to take 1/10 the size (1 /nq = 10 /mnq). Thus, 1/10 the risk per contract. You can, obviously, still buy 10 /mnq and have the same risk, but can then take off some/none/all based on where things move. Or, you can use /mnq and widen your SLs to avoid getting whipsawed.

Where the micro contracts DON'T make sense is when you are trading large volumes (or very frequently). The fee/execution/contract is less in the micros, but not 1/10 less. So, if you were to, say, buy 30 micros vs 3 minis, you'd be paying a lot more in commission as you moved those around. Very likely "worth the cost" during these turbulent times though if you want to be scalping and don't like big swings.

......or, apparently, you could just buy 100 /nq at any price, fly off to a beach somewhere, and make $600k/day regardless of what happens in the world. Oh, that's not "normal" market behavior you say? Could have fooled me: seems to be EXACTLY the case for the past 6 weeks...........sigh.

SammyTdr

May 12, 2026 8:24am

thank you guys for your replies!

ffghost, greatly appreciate your help and guidance regarding trading NQ. Just the fact that I'm trying to pass the prop test, which is why am using 1nq for trading, once passed and funded, will drop to something like 3 mnqs. Just waiting to get funded LOL.

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May 11, 2026 2:24pm

Sammy , you’re a breath of fresh air .

You’re not alone in your observations , in fact you’re in the majority . Being Potus is the probably the most prestigious position in today’s world , step up to the plate and act with integrity .

That’s all we ( the citizens ) ask .

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May 11, 2026 11:45pm

The black boxes with the trading algos love it.

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May 11, 2026 12:44pm — Edited

Every dip is bought. Every dip that is bought reinforces the belief that the market can not go down. Effectively, the best safe haven available is believed to be the AI related stocks. They will simply keep going up until somthing happens that erodes the belief that they will keep going up.

Riziq-Cap

May 11, 2026 2:18pm

AI is not even like bitcoin, which is shit in itself, its like shit-coins - sooner or later, everything will collapse.

What revenue does AI produce to be valued like it is? What benefit does it produce?

Its like the early days of rentier economy stocks like uber and lyft who were hemorrhaging money but they at least had income streams and slave labor, AI is strictly quasi psydo hyped up shit that produces memes and pushes out low IQ propaganda for lazy tards.

My early 2000s PC game Command & Conquer firestorm had AI opponents that are not much less advanced then current AI! - the grid struggles already to keep up demand due to electrification of everything, soon AI warehouses will be blown up by pissed residents!

May 11, 2026 2:24pm

Have a look at recent earnings in the semis and the hyperscalers.

ytong

May 11, 2026 3:25pm

I don't agree with you too often, but here U R right.
In long term AI will not give any advantage (everyone will use it), may cause unemployment, so lower number of consumers. What's more it will be used (already is) for newer ways of thievery (econ, identity, bank accounts etc.)
By the same time it uses a lot of energy. Whole power plants. Climate change etc.etc.
I'm really sceptical. But that will be long term. We're not at this point, we're at very early stage.

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TimmyBTrades

May 11, 2026 12:28pm

This is jockeying for position at the end to extract concessions, no involved party has an interest in restarting hot conflict.

Dumb conflict that accomplished little, but market doesn't moralize and can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

mbefus

May 11, 2026 8:17pm

Relax. This is Trump telescoping exactly what he's NOT going to do. He knows he's toast if he even thinks about putting boots on Iranian soil. Thousands of US troops would be smoked, and this would be his end.

May 11, 2026 8:21pm

You Relax

May 11, 2026 11:07pm

You have some issue with the person speaking reality?

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Trader#E84E

May 11, 2026 12:07pm

They could have dug another waterway by now

May 11, 2026 12:19pm

I don't know about from a time horizon, but certainly in the amount of market cap lost during the initial war drawdown or the amount of market cap gained during this run up: that would have funded such a project 1000x over.

Who knows, maybe that was all part of the plan? Oman gets inside access to military action/truth social posts in order to place "insider" trades, but has to buy Caterpillar equipment from the US and provide x million barrels of oil and x million in LNG volume per month.... *joking, of course*

May 11, 2026 11:43pm

That is exactly what the UAE and Saudi's are doing. To the Red Sea for the Saudi's and to Fujairah for the UAE. Just give them a bit of time. Hence oil is the short of a lifetime. The billions to be made by traders globally as the world moves to green energy....and nuclear arms.

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OutThere

May 12, 2026 1:08am

Ah the good old days mullahs were getting a taste of their own medicine.

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May 11, 2026 11:05pm

Alright this is the time they turn this all into a proper pile of shit or he walks away and tries to save his party in November. What a fucking fool you are Trump.

May 11, 2026 11:32pm

He doesn't seem to give a shit about his party. I think he has a giant bet on dems winning the midterms.

May 11, 2026 11:38pm

If so why the push to redistrict. Trump is a Malignant Narcissist. Look it up. Shame is his kryptonite. He will walk away eventually and say he won. Its the only way to save face...for himself. It is why he never admits to an error or mistake. He cannot handle shame. Pretty fucked up but that is what is happening with the worlds most militarily powerful nation. A fucking nutcase got elected.

May 12, 2026 2:28am

I don't think narcissists feel shame. I've never seen it. They simply construct a world where they are the greatest and reality has no significance. Imagine claiming you've reduced prices by 600% only to have math professors say percentages don't work that way. If Trump felt shame he'd jump from a bridge, so it's just not possible because the neural architecture isn't there.

May 12, 2026 5:14am

Your first sentence shows you did zero research on that. So I never read the rest. It would be pointless. Shame is related to narcissism. end of story. Have a nice day.

May 12, 2026 6:42am

I thought we were on the same side and making small talk, but you kinda went off the ledge there.

No evidence Trump has experienced shame, and quite the opposite. He said he never asks god for forgiveness because he never does anything wrong.

If you think Trump experiences shame, that's an extraordinary claim.

May 12, 2026 7:23am

Replying to FlyingTurtle

Every time he lies pretty much is for shame. If I appear terse it is because I am very well versed on Narcissism and as long as you say a narc does not feel shame you are ignorant. Have a good day and no offense you are just ignorant.

May 12, 2026 7:34am

Would be a lot easier if you cite some evidence where Trump experiences shame rather than beat your chest.

If he experienced shame for saying prices decline 600%, then he would stop saying that. If he experienced shame for tariffs being a dumb idea, then he would stop advocating them. He acts a fool tweeting, but he doesn't stop. Why keep doing the shameful thing if he experiences shame?

May 12, 2026 7:46am

Replying to FlyingTurtle

A Malignant Narcissist will lie and have tantrums why? Have a nice day man. Fuck what a trip. Beat my chest? Asshole is what that deserves. My chest is beating bellow.

Malignant narcissists generally do not experience healthy, conscious shame or remorse, but rather live in fear of it, using intense defensiveness to avoid it. While they possess a deep, subconscious core of shame and insecurity—which their arrogant, grandiose persona hides—they almost never consciously process or acknowledge it. Instead, they project shame onto others and react to potential threats with rage

When he lost the election and was one of the few presidents that did not go to the inaugural what the fuck was that?

May 12, 2026 8:30am

"Malignant narcissists generally do not experience healthy, conscious shame or remorse, but rather live in fear of it" So we agree. What is the problem?

"When he lost the election and was one of the few presidents that did not go to the inaugural what the fuck was that?" That's not shame for losing, but protesting by not acknowledging Biden's win with his attendance. That's a poor example because the election is not as certain as 600%, tariffs, tweeting like a teenager. The election can't be proved; you either believe the authorities or you don't.

We know for sure prices cannot decline by 600%, and so should he. All he has to do is stop saying that, if he feels shame.

May 12, 2026 8:37am

Replying to FlyingTurtle

Lol they still expetience shame pal. You might want to review what a narc is from a personal perspective. Every tantrum....is shame but it is pointless. You are correct live the lie you are always correct as well.

Poor example? It is literal proof.

Review from a self perspective what narc is.

Have a nice life turtle.

May 12, 2026 9:18am

Seems like you know narcissism from the most personal experience possible. Thanks for the heads-up. Yeah, have a nice life.

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Paulson13

May 11, 2026 11:46am

Axios working for the bears today

Trader#9ABE

May 11, 2026 11:46am

yuuuup

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Trader#CAF7

May 11, 2026 11:46am

I think they will attack iran in the next 2 days, and oil will pump, gold will dump

Trader#2459

May 11, 2026 11:52am

Agree, But Stock will Dump, and initially gold will also dump but Later Gold Will Up.

May 11, 2026 12:21pm

While my positioning would certainly benefit from such a re-escalation, I am forced to take the other side of that bet....I don't see any more US-instigated actions happening.

May 11, 2026 12:25pm

Do you see the US packing up and going home?

May 11, 2026 12:38pm

Going home fully? Unlikely in the near term. 1 carrier group did already leave (which kind of signaled this thing was over).

But, the markets are clearly stating that oil at these prices is not worrisome enough to drive inflation higher and, thus, reduce equity valuations. I am as surprised as anyone. I thought a repeat scare of 2022 magnitude would have been in store for us as the strait impacts more energy. That just doesn't seem to be the case though, at least not this minute.

I still think stock prices are inflated regardless of the geopolitical situation, on a pure "price" perspective. Fundamentally, because the costs of things has gone up so much and the AI hype/demand is so strong, these high flying semi stocks (MU, SNDK, WDC, STX, etc) still have moderate (not over-extended) P/E ratios. On this level, a continued rally should be expected. I am just flabbergasted that there has been nearly zero pullback during this whole thing. 1.5% down (which is bought back in 36 hours tops) is NOT a pullback....especially when markets are increasing 1-2%/day.

And here we are again: a small dip on the news of this thread, but knocking on new ATHs in /ES and /NQ. (with /cl down $2 from highs and the VIX meandering).

May 11, 2026 1:07pm

Have to agree with you both ( Aaron and Ghost ) it’s a real dichotomy at the moment .

The two ends of the spectrum at odds with each other ; it’ll play out eventually in favour of logic I would presume; we all know markets can stay irrational far longer than most can remain solvent .

That’s capitalism at its most cut throat , thank leverage and derivatives . Look at 2008 and how that played out .

May 11, 2026 1:19pm

"we all know markets can stay irrational far longer than most can remain solvent"

Having all kinds of "big short" feelings recently.......so we likely have a long way to go before any pullbacks.

May 11, 2026 1:20pm

Yes, the price action is confusing. Equities feel the war is over and the AI revolution is won. Short term price action has its own internal insanity.

However the reality is that the war is not won, and the only way to win it is to pry the Strait from Iran's dead hands. This means major escalation. If we dont have the will to do that, we should leave and let Iran do what they want with it as that outcome is better than delaying and then having the same outcome.

May 11, 2026 1:28pm

Replying to AaronWard

Your assumptions are both in play ; however I’m not Nero staying sidelined whilst Rome burns .

Time to sell this insanity .

Short S&P 7425

I’m looking for a massive drawdown into the latter two weeks of May

Good luck to us all ; like the Titanic .

May 11, 2026 1:36pm

Aside from oil I am sidelined for now. I need to see some weakness to believe the crash is unfolding. Irrational bull markets can go on for a long time.

Trumps trip is probably the reason for the current optimism. He usually gives the market a big gift when he does something like this.

May 11, 2026 1:39pm

There needs to be some shade on the AI forever narrative. Until that happens clearly, sideways is the new down.

May 11, 2026 1:57pm

I am there with you VC....but it has been a brutal slap in the face for the past few days.

CPI could blow up (figuratively of course, and kind of pun intended) in our faces. Whatever the number (explosive to the upside or muted), the market reaction is unlikely to be what we want to see.

I have been waiting for an afternoon pullback on heightened volatility into the number, but so far, no such pullback has occurred.

/nq options have a 610pt move into Friday. That effectively puts the /nq at 30k. That huge, round number, is quite enticing (especially before NVDA earnings next week). I am just hoping it is "too" enticing and, therefore, doesn't hit for another month or so. Let's get a little dip back into sanity first.

FWIW: NVDA has often shot higher overnight on earnings only to fall DRAMATICALLY (and take the /nq with it) the following day. Will this time be different? Perhaps. Every other semi company has benefited from earnings. Plus, if things stand, NVDA would be entering their announcement at all time highs (see how that worked for INTC and AMD recently).

Whatever the case, good luck to you: we are in this together for the time being!

May 11, 2026 2:13pm — Edited

Hope you’re ok mate
.

We’ve been here before , stay the course. If it appears too good to be true then it generally is just that . I’m now on the same journey , and I’d like a decent return for the risk b.

It’s obvious there’s skullduggery at work when you view the price action.

In the bigger picture , we’re all part of this ecosystem . Money is just a means to an end .

Family and friends are what matter .

May 11, 2026 2:25pm

Right you are as always

.....though, staying the course while "long" (and the market down) is a LOT easier than staying the course short while the market is ripping (and you would otherwise have been long into it).

There are a great few scenes from the movie "Airplane" wherein Lloyd Bridges recites "Looks like I picked the wrong week to...." in a series of escalating habits. For me, and my shorting, I am pretty sure at this point I'm on the final scene.....wrong week to lighten up....wrong week to get flat....wrong week to get short....

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May 11, 2026 2:28pm

Replying to The Fool

Sideways...what's THAT? I haven't seen sideways in the /nq in weeks! What a relief it would be for one or two days of sideways chop to actually get some 2-sided action.

May 11, 2026 2:29pm

Replying to AaronWard

Yeah, I'm not looking for a dot com bubble burst or anything. In fact, I REALLY don't want that to happen - it would be a disaster across the board.

...but 3-5% off the highs would be a very welcomed reprieve to this unstoppable force.....then we can bounce off the 50day MA and continue the rally like in 2020 and 2025....I'm fine with that.

I still think we'll see the markets up 14-18% by year's end....I just didn't expect to get there ALREADY.

May 11, 2026 2:41pm

I think it is binary. If the Strait opens, things could go up another 10-20%. Alternatively, they could stay shut for the rest of the year. These give two very different outcomes. Already, we are starting to see cracks in consumer spending on the low end, which is a precursor for every major market crash.

May 11, 2026 2:46pm

Replying to AaronWard

AI Overview
As of early May 2026, the U.S. stock market has experienced extreme concentration, with a handful of technology giants driving a significant portion of the gains.
Key Findings for 2026:
Massive Gains Driven by Few: Five stocks alone accounted for roughly 50% of all S&P 500 gains since April 1, 2026.
Top-Heavy Concentration: The top 10 stocks represent approximately 34%–35% of the total S&P 500 weight, a historic level of concentration.
AI Leadership: The rally is primarily fueled by AI-related infrastructure demand, with Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon leading the market.
Performance Disparity: While the S&P 500 has surged, the gains are narrowly focused. For instance, in early 2026, leading AI stocks climbed nearly 30%, while the rest of the index rose just 8%.

This concentration has led analysts to warn that when a handful of companies lead equities higher, the market is more sensitive to potential downward corrections if any of those few companies underperform

May 11, 2026 2:56pm

Replying to The Fool

My goodness you lads are optimistic !

Have you seen how far Tech has come this year alone ! Talk about front running the curve b; it’s pure hype and speculation , borderline hyperbole .

May 11, 2026 2:58pm

Replying to The Fool

I am calling AI out on this: "AI Leadership: The rally is primarily fueled by AI-related infrastructure demand, with Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon leading the market."

Microsoft isn't leading anything....

AI is the epitomy of "garbage in, garbage out". My recent attempts to utilize it for any financial information have been worthless. Funny to have it "explain" and "correct" itself though. And it is always polite in saying "thank you for pointing out where I was wrong".

May 11, 2026 3:12pm

Mr Softy was up 20% in April. It's given some back...but you get the gist. The tech rally is dragging up the indices. All it will take is some well-founded doubts to take root. Right now, what's surprising to me (lil bit anyway) is how few WS pros are daring to express those doubts. Everyone is incrementally upping their year end targets....I even heard 13,000 SPX for a decade-end target today. Well, OK. SPX has more than doubled since the late 2020 lows....in less than 6 years.

May 11, 2026 3:14pm

Yes , pure speculation to the extreme . The amount of fundraising for this alone pushes out the boundaries for a potential lucrative return over a designated timeframe means it’s pure speculation .

Artificial intelligence is in vogue ; been here before and got the T- shirts ; more than one , as I’m sure many of a certain generation have .

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Trader#59D8

May 11, 2026 8:47pm

The people commenting on this website are absolutely morons.

May 11, 2026 11:06pm

Those would mostly be the religious types.

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CycleGF

May 11, 2026 7:40pm

Shit....gold will crash back to 4,500

May 11, 2026 11:07pm

Please short it with all you have. Go for it. How is all this war being paid for? think about that.

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May 11, 2026 6:14pm

LOL oh again with the bully bullshit talk.

Franklin07

May 11, 2026 11:49am

Waiting for another tweet from him

mbefus

May 11, 2026 8:19pm

We always are. This is part of the problem. We lap it up like it's another episode of The Apprentice.

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CycleGF

May 11, 2026 7:39pm

Gold will crash again

Trader#2AC4

May 11, 2026 11:48am

Is this the gold limit down?!

May 11, 2026 11:48am

OHH BROTHER!!

May 11, 2026 12:12pm

TACO TACO TACO

May 12, 2026 3:11am

he become totally mad man

Trader#0F01

May 11, 2026 12:00pm

Positive news incoming

Trader#7899

May 11, 2026 12:17pm

Barak is the most bs spreader on the market

Trader#8739

May 11, 2026 11:16pm