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US and Iran Ceasefire Lifts Copper to US$6/lb, But Smelter Margin Collapse Points to Tighter Supply Ahead
The United States and Iran agreed to ceasefire terms in April 2026, removing the Strait of Hormuz disruption risk that had kept oil prices above what supply-demand conditions alone justified and, by extension, inflated near-term copper demand forecasts, driving copper's recovery to approximately US$6/lb without any change in concentrate availability or smelter economics. This sequence drew speculative and physical buyers back into the copper market, producing a rebound from the correction that followed copper's nominal all-time high of US$14,527/t on the LME in January 2026. EVs, grid infrastructure, and renewable ... (full story)