Trump: A great and brilliant day for the world

Yeah. I hate him but no question that he won this round.

Well, yeah. You could pretty easily write his next big speech(es).

"I've stopped another war(s) and the markets are back making new all time highs. Oil prices crashed back down just like I said they would. We had to take a little trip to the middle east to uphold my promise that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb and we finshed that quicker than anyone though. No one has ever seen anything like it. This is America's golden age." etc, etc.

And, you know what? Manufactured or not, it is kind of shaping up that way.

This rally may well be the longest in the history of the stock market. Certainly it is for the /nq and /es futures. SPX saw one red candle in the mix. NXD saw 2, so it's not a 'streak breaker' for the cash products (at least not that I know of).....but the % move up in this short a time period has to be close to the all time peak. Especially if you include the stat that there have been no sizable pullbacks during the rally.

No question that the $$$ up is the greatest ever in that time period (but that's a function of the markets making these moves at higher valuations than in the past....a 1 day, 100 pt move in the SPX represents ten days of 10 pt moves from decades ago).

You, WE, have all been trading in some historic times.

Trust charts. Make money. Easy. Bye

I have a hard time coming to grips with it myself, but I try to read past the IRGC headlines.

Oil price (/CL now under 80 for June) is telling you all you need to know about the information. Global markets are SCREAMING that this thing is "over".

VIX is still elevated, but under 18 for a "war still on"?

IMO, the equity rally is "overbought" and should normalize (either sideways by time or naturally via price retracement) to get closer to the 20/50day MAs. That said, it doesn't seem to be happening, so, if long, ride it till you see a crack in the price. Or, if flat presently, await that inevitable 3-5% pullback.

Take a look at 2025 price action after the tariff pause though: weird stuff happens in a FOMO market....or one where too much money was left on the sidelines during a massive rally off lows wherein institutional players were "flat/short" and needed to play "catchup" to justify existence to clients wondering why they shouldn't have just bought SPY on Jan 1 and saved themselves the institutional fees.....

Earnings have been solid (big beats), but price action immediately after earnings has been VERY lackluster, to incredibly scary (ASML, NFLX, TSM, JPM, SCHW, PEP, etc). If that trend continues for the other "big boys", this thing could turn a bit wonky...and quickly.

Over-extended + any retracement of big names on earnings = potential for pain. I'm just one guy out here trying to make a buck, but I have been lightening up a lot into this move. I don't have the juevos to short the thing, but it could either be the best time to do so (for a 2-5% move down), or at least a good time to sit on hands and let the averages catch up to the price (which is what I will be doing before redeploying capital).