Is all that glitters fool’s gold?

Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that the period after the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 4-5 February 2026 could be divided into two distinct phases. In the first phase, up to the start of the war in the Middle East, the low-volatility and strong risk appetite environment had remained in place. In the second phase, when energy prices had surged in response to the war, volatility had increased in equity markets and especially in bond markets, and there had been sell-offs in both risk asset markets and bond markets. Brent crude oil prices had surged above USD 100 per barrel to levels last seen after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Natural gas prices had also increased substantially, but had remained well below their 2022 levels. At the same time, the Brent crude oil futures curve had shown historically high backwardation – a strong negative slope – suggesting that traders were expecting the spike in oil prices to be reversed quickly. However, over time traders had pared back expectations of a swift reversal of the spike in energy prices. Since the beginning of the war, the Brent crude oil futures curve had gradually shifted upwards and stood visibly above the curve that had prevailed shortly after it started. ECB ACCOUNTS: RISK OF UNDERSHOOTING THE TARGET HAD DISAPPEARED FOR THE TIME BEING ... ECB ACCOUNTS: THE STARTING POSITION FOR INFLATION WAS MUCH MORE FAVOURABLE NOW THAN IT HAD BEEN IN 2022 ECB PUBLISHES ACCOUNT OF MARCH 18-19 POLICY MEETING: *ECB OFFICIALS SAW WEAKER EURO AS UPSIDE RISK TO INFLATION *ECB OFFICIALS: WAR FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED INFLATION OUTLOOK *ECB OFFICIALS SAW ENERGY DISRUPTION POTENTIALLY LASTING MONTHS

US MILITARY WIDENS SCOPE OF IRAN SHIPPING BLOCKADE TO INCLUDE CONTRABAND ITEMS SUCH AS MUNITIONS, WEAPONS - ADVISORY NOTE US MILITARY ADVISORY STATES CONTRABAND ON SHIPS INCLUDES OIL, REFINED PRODUCTS, IRON, STEEL, AND ALUMINIUM. VESSELS SUSPECTED OF TRANSPORTING CONTRABAND TO IRAN CAN BE VISITED, SEARCHED, AND SEIZED ANYWHERE, ACCORDING TO AN ADVISORY.

Lebanese presidency: President Aoun spoke on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and thanked him for the U.S. efforts to reach a ceasefire. Rubio affirmed the continuation of the ongoing efforts to reach a ceasefire as a prelude to establishing peace, security,…

HEGSETH: US LAUNCHING OPERATION 'ECONOMIC FURY' US WILL MAINTAIN BLOCKADE FOR AS LONG AS IT TAKES: HEGSETH HEGSETH SAYS IRAN IS DIGGING OUT BOMBED OUT LAUNCHERS HEGSETH TO IRAN: I HOPE YOU CHOOSE A DEAL WHICH IS WITHIN YOUR GRASP HEGSETH: U.S. NAVY CONTROLS TRAFFIC GOING IN AND OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BECAUSE IT HAS A NAVY AND IRAN DOES NOT ANYMORE