Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be limited causing oil storage to fill quickly in countries that rely on the waterway for exports. As a result, we estimate that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 7.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production in March. We assess that production shut-ins will rise to 9.1 million b/d in April. In this outlook, we assume the conflict does not persist past April and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes. Under those assumptions, we expect production shut-ins will fall to 6.7 million b/d in May and ... (full story)