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Governing Council began its deliberations by discussing recent developments in the global economy and the implications for the outlook. Global growth had continued to track at about 3%, as had been expected in the January Monetary Policy Report. However, the start of the war in Iran had increased uncertainty around the global outlook. Energy prices had risen sharply, which will boost inflation around the world. Members agreed that the impact of the conflict on global growth and inflation will depend on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which it spreads across the Middle East. Members also noted a new development in global trade—the US Supreme Court’s ruling that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal and the US administration’s plans to replace tariffs through other means. They agreed that this had no direct implications for sectoral tariffs on Canadian exports and that trade-related risks to Canada remained unchanged since January. In the United States, indicators of economic activity had moderated since January but remained solid. The effects of the US government shutdown on consumption and government spending were temporary and led to slower growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. Economic activity was expected to pick up in the first quarter to average about 2% over the two quarters. The US outlook for 2026 remained in line with the projection in the January Report, driven by consumption and strong investment in artificial intelligence (AI). Investment outside the AI sector was subdued, and exports remained weak. The labour market had softened slightly, with some indicators suggesting there could be more slowing. US inflation had risen in recent months, driven partly by previously announced tariffs that had passed through to pr Just in | Minutes Reveal Governing Council's Concerns Over Rising Gas Prices and Persistent Inflation Impacting Inflation Expectations. BoC's Meeting Minutes: The governing council agreed to keep options open BoC Governing Council felt that in the near term, risks to growth looked tilted towards the downside, whereas the oil price shock represented additional upside risk to inflation.

Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined the Hormuz coalition - FT