US retail sales rose more than expected in February

Bank of England Governor Bailey struck a cautious tone, emphasizing risks around inflation, financial stability, and growth, while signaling the need to stay flexible on policy as conditions evolve. • If high energy prices and supply disruptions persist, it will strain many countries significantly • Policy will respond if needed, but addressing the root cause of energy price shocks is most important • Returning inflation to target remains essential, with a focus on minimizing damage to growth and employment • Inflation expectations are closely monitored, though short-term moves often track headline inflation • Businesses report a real lack of pricing power • UK growth is below potential, with signs of a softening labor market • MPC may consider a precautionary rate hike, but decisions depend on how inflation returns to target • Gilt markets are “orderly but stretched,” and are being closely monitored • Need to watch for potential loss of investor confidence in private credit markets BoE Gov Bailey Says I Still Think Markets Are Getting Ahead Of Themselves By Pricing In Rate Hikes - UK Growth Is Below Potential, Labour Market Softening -Gilt Market Moves "Orderly But Stretched", We're Watching It Hourly -Need To Watch Out For Investor Loss Of Confidence…

Private sector employment increased by 62,000 jobs in March and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the March ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP ...

Good morning. I would like to thank the American Enterprise Institute for the invitation to speak with you today, and I look forward to an engaging discussion with Michael Strain.1 The AEI is dedicated to advancing free markets and improving lives, for example, by focusing on growth, jobs and inflation. AEI scholars have emphasized the importance of basing monetary policy decisions on economic facts and data—rather than the political needs of the moment. That is the cornerstone of central bank independence. History has shown that countries with independent central banks have better outcomes in terms of stronger economic growth and low and stable inflation. With independence comes an obligation for accountability and transparency. That is why my Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) colleagues and I are constantly engaging with stakeholders, why we are transparent about the factors that go into our decision-making, and why I am here today to share my views. These are my personal views and not necessarily those of other FOMC participants. The economic outlook is highly uncertain. A baseline scenario for 2026 has real GDP growing close to potential, the unemployment rate holding around its current level, and core inflation beginning to gradually ease toward 2% later in the year. But other outcomes are plausible. The risks to the labor market and inflation both tilt in unfavorable directions, that is, toward a weaker labor market and greater ST LOUIS FED'S MUSALEM Q&A/AEI: ECON PICTURE 'HIGHY UNCERTAIN;' REPEATS, POLICY 'WELL POSITIONED;' WATCHNG CLOSELY #Musalem #FederalReserve #economy FED'S MUSALEM SAYS MONETARY POLICY IS AT THE LOW SIDE OF THE NEUTRAL RANGE. Fed's Musalem: Holding rates is likely appropriate for some time Fed's Musalem: Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in the current environment

TRUMP: WILL EXPRESS 'MY DISGUST' WITH NATO IN HIS SPEECH; SAYS HE IS 'ABSOLUTELY' CONSIDERING WITHDRAWING U.S. FROM NATO Trump, ahead of speech: We've had full regime change in Iran Trump: Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, nor do they want one TRUMP: 'WE'RE GOING TO BE OUT OF IRAN PRETTY QUICKLY,' WON'T GIVE TIMELINE TRUMP: WE HAVE SOME MORE TARGETS LEFT; IF WE HAVE TO, WE'LL COME BACK TO DO SPOT HITS