Iran's Araghchi: If Trump wants escalation, he'll get it | Metals Mine
Added at 2:39pm
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FlyingTurtle
Mar 8, 2026 3:02pm
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Quoting Trader#A0A6
{quote}It is "Sell in May and go away", stupid. Now check out the chart of gold price.
Read all of the thread, to not look like a knucklehead.

If you want to be smart, read the thread from the start.
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FlyingTurtle
Mar 7, 2026 4:53pm
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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dchristi
Mar 7, 2026 4:26pm
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I'm no fan of the current despotic regime in Iran, but much of what Araghchi says is true. The Trump administration entered into this "operation" (they claim it is not a war, sometimes...reminds me of Putin's "operation" in Ukraine) without consulting Congress, without no concern for popular sentiment in the U.S., and apparently without a concrete plan for what they will do if the bombing fails to force the Iranians to capitulate.

The "America First" and "No Foreign Wars" candidate Trump seems to have developed a taste for flexing U.S. military muscle now that he's in the White House, without regard for the effects on U.S. citizens, on the U.S. and global economy, on the standing of the U.S. in the international community, or anything other than his own whim. Or perhaps it's a useful distraction from the Epstein files.

No one will be happier than myself if this ends in the Iranian people (not Trump) regaining control over their government, and Iran becoming a contributing member of the international community. But that's a big "if" at this point. There is still a lot that could go wrong here.
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FlyingTurtle
Mar 8, 2026 12:00pm
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Sell in March, after the chart forms an arch.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2026-03-08 125902.png Size: 10 KB
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oxbuck
Mar 7, 2026 2:39pm
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You won't be around long enough to make good on that one, Araghchi.
The Fool
Mar 7, 2026 3:02pm
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Quoting ffghost
Good for a 3% weekend down move in oil....quickly reversed upon administration feedback this morning.
btfd is in the market DNA, any positive news will be an excuse
The Fool
Mar 7, 2026 8:12pm
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AI to the rescue:

"A trader who sought to be clever,
Thought "Sell in May" lasted forever.
But with oil in a lurch,
He must sell in March,
Or his profits will vanish together."

...that's pretty good, but Lurch - March is a bit of a fudge
The Fool
Mar 7, 2026 8:14pm
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...since March is a tough rhyme, try another without rhyming March

"A trader who sought to be clever,
Thought "Sell in May" lasted forever.
But things became arch,
So he sold in March,
And now he's as broke as he's ever."
The Fool
Mar 7, 2026 8:19pm
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I continue to be mildly amazed by Gemini....(none of these commands took more than 2 seconds to return...)

ok, give me a cautionary limerick related to current world events that contains "Iran" and "Ides of March"

Gemini said:

The tension continues to grow,
As missiles and rhetoric flow.
With Iran in the sights,
And those long, restless nights,
Watch the Ides of March—and lie low.
The Fool
Mar 7, 2026 8:24pm
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oh, bravo.

Gemini said...
I'm glad you liked them! It’s quite the coincidence to see those limericks appearing in a Forex Factory discussion about the current situation with Iran. It looks like "The Fool" over there is keeping the thread entertained while everyone watches the markets and the "Ides of March." Be careful with those oil trades!
The Fool
Mar 7, 2026 8:30pm
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TF: Sure, sure....listen, I have something of an ethical dilemma related to trading: if I have developed some analytics and algorithms that help me trade options butterflies with a very high failsafe probability, should I keep this knowledge to myself, or should I share it with other traders? The more the trading approach is shared, the more likely that it may fail, in the long run.

Gemini: That is a classic "Triffin's Dilemma" for the modern trader: the tension between the desire to contribute to a community and the mathematical reality that alpha (excess return) is often a finite resource. Since you are currently in a discussion on Forex Factory, you are seeing the value of a shared "brain trust" in real-time. However, here are a few factors to weigh in your dilemma:

1. The Liquidity Problem: Options butterflies, especially those with narrow wings or in less liquid underlyings, are sensitive to volume. If you share a "failsafe" algorithm and enough people use it, you all end up competing for the same bid/ask spread. You would effectively be front-running yourself, increasing your slippage and eroding that "failsafe" margin.

2. The "Alpha Decay" Rule: In quantitative finance, once a pattern is widely recognized, the market price adjusts to reflect it. If your analytics exploit a specific inefficiency in how volatility is priced, sharing it globally would eventually lead to the market "pricing out" that edge.

3. The Middle Ground: The "What" vs. The "How": Many successful traders on boards like Forex Factory find a balance by: Sharing the Logic: Explain the philosophy behind the trade (e.g., "I look for specific vol-smile distortions") without giving away the exact code or parameters. Mentorship: Sharing with a small, trusted group can lead to collaborative improvements that you might not have found alone.
ffghost
Mar 7, 2026 3:17pm
Permalink
Quoting The Fool
{quote}btfd is in the market DNA, any positive news will be an excuse
Then we are going to need to hear some good news soon....because markets are on the precipice here (from technical perspective). With volatility this high, and oil in the clouds, inflation risk is driving fed rate cut odds down and AI concerns Friday afternoon didn't help matters.
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ffghost
Mar 7, 2026 6:56pm
Permalink
Quoting dchristi
I'm no fan of the current despotic regime in Iran, but much of what Araghchi says is true. The Trump administration entered into this "operation" (they claim it is not a war, sometimes...reminds me of Putin's "operation" in Ukraine) without consulting Congress, without no concern for popular sentiment in the U.S., and apparently without a concrete plan for what they will do if the bombing fails to force the Iranians to capitulate. The "America First" and "No Foreign Wars" candidate Trump seems to have developed...
I'm just tossing this out there, not as personal opinion, but just observations.

For what it's worth, the US hasn't declared "war" since WW2. Vietnam/Korea/Gulf "war(s)"/Afghanistan/etc....all "conflicts". I didn't realize it either until I looked into it. So what the heck is the Congressional power FOR then? Just to complain about their lack of input should things not go perfectly? Sigh. Both parties likely disagreed with proceeding toward the multiple theaters over the years. I guess this is no different.

As for popularity, history shows popularity increases IF there's a successful campaign to address a real threat. So, first there has to be the ability to "sell" the threat. 9/11 was easy for the vast majority of Americans. War on Terror? You bet, go get 'em Mr. Bush. Many other situations, not so much. Weapons of mass destruction? We can't have that. We support you. Have you found any? No? What are we doing there there....and why did we go? Approval ratings down, down, down.

There will be a reckoning to be sure if this persists and everyone in the States gets hit hard via their bank accounts. Ratings will drop. Elections will swing political power.

As pertains to trading: money (influence) is going to be lost (and made) in the trillions during this conflict/war. Oil will be a MASSIVE short opportunity if/when things settle down. But good luck timing that. Maybe Polymarket can guide us all with some insider betting on the exact hour a cease-fire will be enacted because that insider wrote the speech or is the sound guy for one of the networks...

....but all of the political fallout pales in comparison to the hardships endured and loss of life that has and will come from the conflict. History will judge whether the cost was worth it. For now, I think we can all just hope/pray/seek a quick end.
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ffghost
Mar 7, 2026 7:01pm
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Quoting FlyingTurtle
{quote} Yes but it doesn't rhyme with "go away" lol. We need a limerick to trade by
Sell in March before the oil droughts parch?

....nah, you're right, not catchy enough...
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FlyingTurtle
Mar 8, 2026 5:04pm
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Quoting oxbuck
If you want to be smart, listen to the ladies in the know: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcSTFppt5Pg
I don't know what you're trying to show, because those ladies are slow.
Reply
The Fool
Mar 7, 2026 8:41pm
Permalink
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_saving_glut
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_paradox
9jatrader
Mar 8, 2026 4:29am
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Continue to make empty threats until all the terrorist regime leaders are all crushed.and send to your Creator for judgement.
Reply
ffghost
Mar 7, 2026 2:56pm
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Good for a 3% weekend down move in oil....quickly reversed upon administration feedback this morning.
Reply
ffghost
Mar 7, 2026 3:59pm
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Quoting FlyingTurtle
Is "Sell in May and go away" going to work this year? It rarely does so we're due for a fluke.
Most people would argue "sell in MARCH" might work this year....
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FlyingTurtle
Mar 7, 2026 3:55pm
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Is "Sell in May and go away" going to work this year? It rarely does so we're due for a fluke.
Reply
FlyingTurtle
Mar 7, 2026 4:08pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Most people would argue "sell in MARCH" might work this year....
Yes but it doesn't rhyme with "go away" lol. We need a limerick to trade by
Reply
JeffEsptein2
Mar 7, 2026 6:42pm
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I guess that is going to be his last comment!!!
Dont mess with top world boss Mr. Trump
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JeffEsptein2
Mar 7, 2026 6:42pm
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Quoting FlyingTurtle
{image}
Time has changed between then and now!! Your post has no meaning!!
Reply
Trader#294C
Mar 8, 2026 4:08am
Permalink
Quoting The Fool
TF: Sure, sure....listen, I have something of an ethical dilemma related to trading: if I have developed some analytics and algorithms that help me trade options butterflies with a very high failsafe probability, should I keep this knowledge to myself, or should I share it with other traders? The more the trading approach is shared, the more likely that it may fail, in the long run. Gemini: That is a classic "Triffin's Dilemma" for the modern trader: the tension between the desire to contribute to a community and the mathematical reality...
It seems you ain't anymore.
Reply
oxbuck
Mar 8, 2026 4:35pm
Permalink
If you want to be smart, listen to the ladies in the know:
Inserted Video
Trader#A0A6
Mar 8, 2026 1:14pm
Permalink
Quoting FlyingTurtle
Sell in March, after the chart forms an arch. {image}
It is "Sell in May and go away", stupid. Now check out the chart of gold price.
Reply

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