US business inventories up by 0.1% in December

FED'S GOOLSBEE SAYS IT WAS A TOUGH MISS ON THE JOBS REPORT TODAY GOOLSBEE SAYS IF YOU GOT SEVERAL MONTHS LIKE THAT, WOULD BE CONCERN CHI FED'S GOOLSBEE Q&A/BBG: AS GET MORE UNCERTAINTIES TIME FOR RATE CUTS 'KEEPS GETTING PUSHED BACK;' HOPE THAT CHANGES BY END OF YEAR #Goolsbee #FederalReserve #economy GOOLSBEE SAYS HOPEFUL WE CAN COMMENCE RATE CUTS BY END OF THIS YEAR CHI FED'S GOOLSBEE Q&A/BBG: NEED TO ASK HOW LONG OIL PRICE SURGE WILL LAST; CAN'T SAY WHAT FOMC TO BE LOOKING AT IN APRIL; SOME ENCOURAGING INFL SIGNS #Goolsbee #FederalReserve #economy

*TRUMP SAYS HE RATES WAR AT 12 OR 15 OUT OF 10: CNN TRUMP TELLS CNN CUBA IS SOON GOING TO FALL: ‘WE’RE REALLY FOCUSED ON THIS ONE RIGHT NOW’ - ... TRUMP SEES GASOLINE PRICES GOING DOWN 'VERY QUICKLY' - CNN TRUMP SEES OUTCOME FOR IRAN SIMILAR TO VENEZUELA: CNN

The full mosaic (Slide 2) • The U.S. economy is complex — millions of households, workers, firms, and institutions interacting daily to produce, trade, and consume billions of dollars of goods and services. • The true state of all of this economic activity exists, but we only observe fragments. Individual data points are like tiles in a mosaic: the challenge for policymakers is to assemble the pieces to understand both current economic conditions and where they might be headed. Choosing the tiles (Slide 3) • Tiles represent different data points. They come from a lot of different data sources. The job of policymakers is to put them all together. • Some of the tilemakers are well established — i.e., the official statistical agencies. They have long series and are reliable, and it is well understood how their tiles are made. There are also newer tilemakers — the private sector data sources. • We can also create tiles, like the Beige Book, regional Federal Reserve Bank surveys, as well as insights that come from conversations with business and community contacts. Some of these data are tailored to the important issues of the day. Fed's Paulson does not comment on monetary policy and economic outlook.