Middle East escalation could push aluminium above $4,000/t

Fed's Schmid: The labor market is under structural, not cyclical, strain.

MIRAN: I EXPECT TO DISSENT THIS MONTH IF FED DOESN'T CUT RATES FED'S MIRAN: NEUTRAL IS LIKE 2.5% TO 2.75% - WE SHOULD GET THERE, THEN RE-EVALUATE ...

Good afternoon. It is wonderful to be with you today, and an honor to be on the program with Governor Healey, Secretary Paley, Congressman Neal, and Mayor Sarno. It is really a pleasure to be with all of you attending this event, who are building the present and future economy in western Massachusetts. I’d also like to thank Diana Szynal and Dominick Ianno for the invitation to be here. Today I’d like to share, for context, a bit about the Federal Reserve; then discuss the economy, my outlook, and my views about appropriate monetary policy – and end with some perspectives regarding small businesses. I’ll share some numbers, because objective rigor is always important, and will also relate some of the qualitative themes I hear when meeting with people across New England.1 But first, as always, I’ll give my standard disclaimer. These comments reflect my own views, not necessarily those of my colleagues at the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., or at the other Reserve Banks. In my job, it’s vital to complement good data with outreach to people on the front lines of the economy, in all kinds of places: rural, urban, and suburban; thriving and struggling. So, I spend time hearing about economic challenges and opportunities, as well as experiences with costs and prices, and the job market – reflecting the Fed’s Congressionally mandated goals, price stability and maximum employment. Eight times a year, I gather with other Fed officials as part of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, to deliberate on interest rate FED’S COLLINS: SEES NO URGENT NEED TO CHANGE MONETARY POLICY STANCE FED’S COLLINS: EXPECTS FED RATE TARGET TO HOLD STEADY ‘FOR SOME TIME’ Just in | Fed's Collins anticipates a gradual decline in inflation toward the 2% target.

Before I begin, let me note that the views I’ll express today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. When people talk about the safe-haven status of the dollar, they often point to flight-to-quality episodes like the Global Financial Crisis and the early days of the COVID pandemic. For me, a different episode stands out, one from before I became a Federal Reserve policymaker. On the evening of Friday, August 5th, 2011, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the United States’ long-term credit rating to AA+. At the time, I ran a US cash trading desk, and there were lots of questions about how markets would react to the government’s first rating below AAA. Even though stock market indexes fell the following Monday, Treasury prices rallied. Investors were willing to accept lower yields on US government debt rather than higher yields that are often necessary for lower-rated securities. The value of the US dollar declined relative to the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in the days that followed. But the broad trade-weighted dollar index rose.2 This experience reinforced to me that, in times of financial trouble, investors and governments alike place great trust in the US dollar. In my brief prepared remarks today, I’ll discuss the underpinnings of the dollar’s leading international role, including its safe-haven status, and point to a few potential developments that bear watching. While I don’t see any big shifts in the dollar’s standing on the immediate horizon, the world is constantly changing. We shouldn’t take for granted the conditions that have made the dollar the world’s dominant currency FED’S HAMMACK: EURO STILL NOT READY TO TAKE OVER FOR DOLLAR FED’S HAMMACK: FED POLICY IS IN GOOD POSITION TO NAVIGATE INFLATION, JOB CHALLENGES FED’S HAMMACK: FED RATE POLICY LIKELY ON HOLD FOR QUITE SOME TIME