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Rates Spark: On the verge of breakouts
Since the US attack on Iran commenced, we have been quite impressed with the rise in the 2yr real yield. It effectively rose from 55bp to over 65bp. Because the 2yr nominal rate rose by 10bp more than this, 2yr break-even inflation rose from 2.8% to 2.9%. So, the narrative up until Thursday was one of an elevation in inflation expectations alongside a rise in the real yield, and we could reverse engineer a rationale that the market was discounting more inflation but not worried about a material hit to real growth. Well, that narrative changed on Thursday, as the 2yr real yield fell back down to sub 60bp, in what was ... (full story)
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- Mar 5, 2026 9:11pm Posted byFundamental Analysis1,265
