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War in the Middle East takes hold of the global economy
Venezuela, Greenland, tariffs, the Supreme Court, and now fresh instability in the Middle East. 2026 has been developing at warp speed so far, and it’s hard to keep up. Still, in this fast-moving environment, questions are – understandably – arising over what the economic implications of the US-Israeli war with Iran will be. The honest answer would be a typical economist’s response: it all depends. It all depends on how long the war will last, whether some semblance of political stability can emerge in Iran, and, most importantly, how long the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted. In our base case scenario, we ... (full story)
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From think.ing.com | Mar 5, 2026
Needless to say, the war in the Middle East is one of these fast-moving environments, and even the best geopolitical analysts are struggling to predict how it could end. For financial markets, the branching point is simple and more brutal: does this end in days, or does it become a forever war that involves an entire region? Crucial factors here are ...
From media.rabobank.com | Mar 6, 2026
Europe is once again confronted with the uncomfortable reality that global geopolitics can shift the economic outlook overnight. Saturday 28 February, Israeli and American conducted strikes on targets in Iran, in which Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was also killed. In response, Iran carried out drone and missile attacks not only on Israel and ...
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