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Unpacking China’s Two Sessions: takeaways for 2026 and beyond
China's annual target-setting is always an important event. Since GDP growth targets were first published in 1990, China has fallen short of the target only a couple of times. Generally, betting on China to miss its target has been a losing bet for forecasters. This year's GDP growth target was reduced to 4.5-5.0%, a slight softening from the more ambiguous "around 5%" target set in the past three years. While it was debatable how much flexibility "around 5%" entailed, most market participants viewed this as within 0.2-0.3pp of 5%. With the new target, there appears to be a tolerance for slower growth, which should ... (full story)
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*CHINA SETS 2026 GDP GROWTH TARGET AT 4.5%-5% *CHINA SETS 2026 CPI GROWTH TARGET AT ABOUT 2% Just in | China projects a budget deficit of approximately 4% of GDP for 2026, according to an official report.
From cnbc.com | Mar 4, 2026
China on Thursday set its GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5% to 5% — the lowest target on record going back to early 1990s — as Beijing grapples with persistent deflationary pressures and trade tensions with the U.S. That target, stated in the government work report released Thursday, marks a downgrade from the “around 5%” set in the past three years and is ...
